Agent loophole closed

GM football fans. Route One here, and we’re covering Premier League predictions, football’s tax problem and much more.

STATS

Easiest and hardest starts in the Premier League this weekend

→ Chelsea host the hardest opening game according to Opta as they face the reigning champions Manchester City. This is despite being undefeated in the league against City last season.

→ Liverpool go away to newly promoted Ipswich Town in the Premier League’s most favourable opening game of the season according to Opta. This fixture sees both managers take charge of their first Premier League game. 

Plus…

• PFA Young Player of the Year shortlist revealed (More)

• Saudi Arabia offered Vinicius Junior the most lucrative contract in sports history but the Brazilian rejected the offer (More) / in Spanish

• Tottenham’s Yves Bissouma faces investigation after apology for inhaling ‘laughing’ gas (More)

• Basketball player Kevin Durant to become minority shareholder at Paris Saint-Germain (More)

• Brentford have signed Fábio Carvalho from Liverpool on a five-year deal for £27.5mn (More)

PREMIER LEAGUE

Premier League 2024-25 predictions

It’s that time of the year. Opta Analyst has released its predictions ahead of the 2024-25 season, using a ‘supercomputer’ that simulates the season 10,000 times. 

A clear favourite: Opta predicts that Manchester City has an 82.2% chance of winning the league, making their fifth-consecutive title win. It also predicts they’ll be way ahead in terms of points:

• Manchester City - 88.7 predicted points.

• Arsenal - 77.6 predicted points.

• Liverpool - 74 predicted points.

• Chelsea - 61.7 predicted points.

The spread betting markets predict the same outcome for the top four, but doesn’t predict the points gap between City (84.3) and Arsenal (82.3) will be as wide.

Spurs are projected to finish inside the top four 17.5% of the time, which is just below Manchester United’s 18.9% probability. And despite finishing fourth last season, Aston Villa are only given a 7.3% chance of finishing within the top four.

Player predictions

It’ll come as no surprise that Erling Haaland is predicted to top the goal involvements this season, with 33.5 project goal involvements.

Mo Salah and Bukayo Saka are expected to be just behind the Norweigan with 28.5 and 27.5, respectively.

Going down

Last season saw all three promoted clubs fall straight back into the Championship, with Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United relegated to the second tier. And Opta thinks there’s a good chance of this happening again in 2024-25. 

Newly promoted sides Southampton (66.7%), Ipswich Town (64.7) are Leicester City (60.3%) are all projected to go down. Only Nottingham Forest is anywhere near these sides with a 35.6% chance of being relegated. 

There are just three days to go before the new season kicks off… let the games begin!

POLL

HEAD START

👋 Atletico Madrid sign Alavrez. The Spanish giants have completed an £82mn deal to sign Argentina forward Julian Alvarez from Manchester City. Having arrived from River Plate in a deal worth £14mn in January 2022, the 24-year-old’s sale represents a huge profit for City. During his time at City, Alvarez won two Premier League titles, the Champions League, the 2022 World Cup with Argentina, as well as the Copa America earlier this year.

😬 Chelsea making a move for Félix. Chelsea’s busy transfer window has taken another twist after Samu Omorodion’s move was called off at the last minute and the club were offered the chance to resign Joao Felix by Atletico Madrid. The Portuguese forward is keen for the move and is willing to take a significant salary cut to fit into the club’s wage structure. The initial fee reported for Chelsea to land Felix is under £40mn. Generally speaking, Chelsea fans aren’t convinced that this move fits into a coherent strategy for the club.

🛡️Newcastle make third bid for Guehi. Newcastle United have made yet another bid for Crystal Palace and England centre-back Marc Guehi. The Magpies had a second bid for Guehi in the region of £50mn rejected last week with Palace valuing the 24-year-old at £65mn. Guehi currently has two years on his contract, but Newcastle are conscious of PSR and may have to rethink their pursuit of the defender if Palace’s demands are too high.

PREMIER LEAGUE

Tax scrutiny sees £400mn clawed from clubs

HMRC has collected over £384mn in unpaid taxes from football clubs over the past five years, per City AM.

The low profitability of many football clubs, especially those in lower leagues, has made many unable to pay their tax bills on time. At least 21 professional football clubs in the UK have fallen into arrears to the HMRC.

But… HMRC is focusing mainly on football agents in the Premier League by targeting a tax loophole in dual representation contracts.

Dual representation

Dual representation is when the agent represents both the player and the club. It’s prohibited by FA rules, but it’s allowed to happen if all parties have consented to the transaction.

It’s becoming more popular… In 2021, the FA revealed that around 68% of Premier League player deals were done through dual representation.

The reason is simple: It helps agents void tax and VAT on large commissions - and it is estimated to save players, agents and clubs more than £250mn over a three-year period.

How does dual representation help avoid taxes?

It’s complicated. But, say if an agent is representing both the club and player in a deal, they essentially pay less tax on the proportion of the work they do for the club. It avoids VAT, Income Tax and National Insurance payments.

HMRC no longer allows agents to declare a 50/50 split between the work agents do for the club and the player as a default. Instead, they must show evidence that:

• They are legitimately working on both sides of the contract.

• And show the extent to which they represent both parties.

Going forward: A heavy-handed approach to agent loopholes looks like HMRC’s best bet at clawing back tax debt that the football industry owes. So expect to see more of this in the upcoming season.

AROUND THE FOOTBALL WORLD

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship: Preston North End manager Ryan Lowe leaves by mutual consent just one game into the Championship season, following their 2-0 loss at home to Sheffield United (More)

🇹🇷 Turkish Super Lig: Eyüpspor manager Arda Turan received a red card in his first match in charge (More)

🇮🇹 Serie A: Emerson Royal is undergoing his medal at AC Milan to complete the €15mn plus add-ons transfer from Tottenham Hotspur (More)

🇪🇸 La Liga: Atletico Bilbao’s Nico Williams will wear the number 10 shirt next season (More)

🇸🇦 Saudi Pro League: Kurt Zouma’s move to Shabab Al-Ahli has collapsed after the West Ham defender failed a medical (More)

OFF THE PITCH

🔥 Evacuations ordered near Athens as Greek authorities try to contain wildfires (More)

🥽 Tom Daley confirms retirement from diving aged 30 (More)

❌ The US government is planning to make it easier to unsubscribe from unwanted memberships (More)

🎨 Banksy unveils yet another mystery animal mural (More)

🦍 Baby gorilla is born at Detroit Zoo, the first in its 96-year history (More)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Happy Birthday, Shearer. Alan Shearer started his career at Southampton in 1988 before moving to Blackburn Rovers in 1992, where he established himself as among the most prolific goalscorers in Europe and won the 1994–95 Premier League. In the summer of 1996, he joined his hometown club Newcastle United for a then world record £15 million, and in his first season won his third consecutive Premier League Golden Boot.

During the 1995-96 season, Shearer became the first player to score 100 Premier League goals, and holds the record for the fewest games taken to reach the figure, doing so in 124 appearances. He still holds the record for Premier League goals, finding the net on 260 occasions… impressively this doesn’t include the 23 goals he scored in the pre-Premier League era.

ROUTER’S VOICE

Yesterday, we asked you: Do you think large squads create more problems than they solve?

Routers voted that having a large squad is not a good idea for clubs.

🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 ❌ Big squads are not a good idea (89%)

⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✅ The bigger the better... (5%)

⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other... (6%)

Your punditry takes:

• ❌ Jim C voted ‘Not a good idea’: “Clubs creating such big squads are acting in a monopolistic fashion, effectively denying such players to competitors. Any league limits on squad sizes should take loan players into account when setting the limit. The system is being abused by clubs like Chelsea to the detriment of other teams.”

• ✅ J Marin voted ‘The bigger the better’: “With the number of matches added to a season's calendar, a team will need a variety of players to keep its top form.”

• ✍️ Elias G voted ‘Other’: “It's ruining the game. Big clubs can buy and trade players like stocks without having them play for the club. Just attaching the name Chelsea to a player will increase his transfer value. So it is a sure win for those bigger clubs who can buy a dozen players and gamble with them. But it can derail a promising young player his career.”

EXTRA TIME

Vincent Kompany doesn’t hold back in training sessions.

A thread of 10/10 performances in football.

Diego Forlan has started playing tennis on the ITF veteran circuit.

An outraged Talksport fan call that only gets better.

Behind the scenes of Adidas’s iconic third-kit launch.

ESPN ranks the top 50 best men’s club managers in Europe.

Remembering Pedro Neto’s 10 celebrations after one goal.

Long read: The loss and loneliness of the unemployed football manager.

GAME FACE ON

Question: Who am I… I joined the Premier League from an Italian club, I have won the Premier League title, I have provided one assist in the Premier League.

Clue: It’s arguably one the most famous assists in Premier League history.

Scroll below for the answer.

ON TODAY

FOOTBALL

UEFA Champions League - 3rd Qualifying Round

• Full fixture list here.

English League Cup - 1st Round

• Full fixture list here.

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer

Mario Balotelli. The Italian’s pass to Sergio Aguero was instrumental in the goal which sealed Manchester City’s first Premier League title. He later admitted wanting to shoot instead of passing it to his teammate.