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The Ultimate Stats-Based Analysis of Arjen Robben vs Franck Ribéry
In this detailed analysis, we compare the careers of two Bayern Munich legends to determine who was better.
For Bayern Munich fans, comparing Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery is like choosing a favourite child.
But, here at Route One, we couldn’t help but answer the question: who was better?
It’s a complicated question, but we’re going to analyse the following categories:
Output for clubs: goals and assists (incl. league and European football).
Output per 90.
Possession play.
Perceived value by contemporaries.
Individual achievements.
The analysis is between the ages of 20 and 35 as Robben and Ribery are similar in age.
Besides, this accounts for their time at Bayern Munich when they were in their prime.
Let’s get into it…
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It’s worth exploring who we’re dealing with.
It’s a common misconception that, because Robben and Ribery played in similar positions, they were similar players.
This isn’t true.
Instead, Ribery was a playmaker who focused more on creativity and team build-up. But Robben performed like a modern-day winger: fast, direct, and far higher up the pitch.
Their unique offering helped to shape Bayern Munich as one of the best teams in history. And when they played together, they won 77 per cent of the time.
The duo were also part of the Bayern side that went on a record 25 matches unbeaten during the club's 2017/18 title-winning campaign.
Now that we’ve established they were great players, is it possible to claim that one was better than the other?
Goals and Assists
This is the most obvious place to start.
While goals and assists don’t provide the whole picture, they do indicate a player’s effectiveness.
Both players have suffered frustrating spells on the sidelines through injury.
To compensate for this, our analysis includes a rolling average which is useful for finding long-term trends which might be disguised by short-term fluctuations (injuries, bad team performances etc.).
So, the first test we ran was their goals and assists between the ages of 20 and 35.
Here are the results:
Key takeaways:
At each age, Ribery and Robben have achieved similar goals and assists.
Both players peaked at a similar time, between age 27 and 30.
Ribery maintained a better peak but also dipped in performance quicker than Robben.
Both players suffered from injuries which impacted consistency.
The rolling average (displayed by the trend lines) shows that over the 15 years, their output was very similar.
We must also consider the effectiveness of each player within 90 minutes. This accounts for the different minutes each player is on the pitch.
Here are the results per 90:
These results yield more interesting results.
It reveals that Robben reached higher peaks per 90 than Ribery.
The Dutch winger did score more league goals (99) for Bayern than Ribery (86), despite having two less years at the club.
In fact, over the 15-year period that we’ve analysed, Robben played less (318) league games than Ribery (367).
This isn’t related to performance. Robben was injury-prone which meant he spent 1507 days injured and missed 242 games.
Despite playing fewer league games, Robben was able to exceed Ribery’s goal tally. He only narrowly missed out on matching Ribery’s assists.
Now let’s look at Champions League output.
The data shows that Robben achieved greater returns in European football.
Robben did have more minutes than Ribery in the Champions League. To account for this, we can look at their returns per 90.
Here are the results:
Robben = 0.56
Ribery = 0.48
Robben had a higher rate of goals and assists per 90 in the Champions League.
But does this mean he was a better player?
In short, no, it doesn’t.
The best explanation for the difference is that they played different positions.
With Understat.com, we can see their shot heatmaps. This shows us the positions that each player took in offensive areas.
The green represents goals scored and the blue represents shots saved.
Due to a lack of data available, we can only analyse between 2014 and 2019. This is when both players were between 30 and 35 years of age.
Robben took far more shots than Ribery and had a higher number of shots within the six-yard box.
The Dutchman’s proximity to the goal, coupled with his high volume of shots, explains why he was able to score more goals.
So, we’ve established that Robben had greater output than Ribery.
But, goals and assists only show part of the picture. We must layer this with an analysis of other aspects of their game.
Perceived value
So far, we have analysed Robben and Ribery as part of teams.
Now, let’s take a look at what they achieved as individuals. This will help us understand how contemporaries viewed them whilst they were playing.
Firstly, we analysed their market value over their careers.
In the same way, a big house in a nice area will be costlier than the opposite. Likewise, a player’s perceived value quantifies their market value.
We see, again, that there’s not a huge difference between the players.
But, Ribery did reach a higher market value peak (£50 million) than Robben (£40 million).
Here’s where factors beyond goals and assists come into play. Robben’s injury-proneness may have made him a less attractive asset than Ribery.
The Frenchman did have his fair share of time-out due to injuries but not as many as Robben.
Robben’s dip in value at the start of 2013 was a result of becoming a peripheral figure at Bayern due to injuries.
While he made a comeback that year, these factors are important when building a picture of a player’s impact.
Progression play
Progression play gives us a good understanding of a player’s contribution.
There are 3 stats that we’re looking at here:
Progressive Carries (PrgC) are when the ball moves towards the opponent's goal line by at least 10 yards in the last 6 passes. It can also be any carry into the penalty area.
Progressive Passes (PrgP) – ditto but for passes.
Progressive Passes Received (PrgR) – ditto but for passes received.
Due to a lack of data, there are only two seasons that we can analyse: 2017/18 and 2018/19. We’ve chosen the former because it is closer to their ‘prime’ years.
Robben’s possession play exceeds Ribery’s in all three categories. But, the Frenchman did play one less game than him that season.
So, the difference between the two is marginal.
We’ve weakened the weight of this category in our verdict due to the lack of data.
Although it doesn't reveal much, it does debunk the myth that Robben only focused on output. Like Ribery, the Dutchman played a seminal role in progressing the ball forward.
Individual achievements
This brings us to individual achievements.
Let’s compare…
Both players are highly decorated and respected by contemporaries.
But, with individual achievements, Ribery does trump Robben in one respect: Ballon d’Or.
The Ballon d’Or is the award given to the best player from that year. In 2013, Ribery finished third behind Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.
Robben’s highest-ever finish was fourth in 2014.
History may not be favourable to Ribery as he wasn’t named the Ballon d’Or winner that year. However, there’s a very strong argument that he should’ve.
He won everything in club football that year. The UEFA Super Cup, FIFA Club World Cup, Bundesliga title and Champions League. He also racked up 22 goals and 18 assists. Cristiano Ronaldo, who won it that year, hadn't won any silverware by the time the winner was announced.
There is a strong case that Ribery should’ve won the Ballon d’Or. But the same does not apply to Robben.
Combining Ribery’s achievements and higher market value does suggest that he had a higher perceived value than Robben.
This is despite Robben’s better goals and assists record.
That said, Robben had the ‘bigger’ moments of the two on the pitch. One example is that winning goal in the 89th minute to win Bayern Munich the Champions League. It's difficult to argue that Ribery each match such a moment in his career.
This is one example. But Robben also had better moments in his international career and was more pivotal to the Netherlands than Ribery was to France. The Dutchman’s display in the 2010 World Cup helped his team reach the final against Spain.
To avoid bias, we can look at this objectively.
Robben achieved 96 apps for the Netherlands and an impressive 37 goals.
Ribery had 81 apps and 16 goals.
Again, there’s not much in it, but enough to make a distinction.
Verdict
As expected, it’s difficult to separate Robben and Ribery.
They both played a vital role in Bayern Munich’s success and are amongst the best forwards to play the game.
Throughout the analysis, it proved difficult to separate them based on stats.
Robben had better output per 90 than Ribery. There is a strong argument that this made the Dutchman more effective.
But, the difference in stats isn’t enough to justify such a bold conclusion.
Additionally, the analysis could suggest that Ribery ranked higher amongst contemporaries. The Ballon d'Or argument and a greater market value peak imply his perceived value was higher.
Contemporary opinion had a higher weight as it considers the sentiment of the day.
Without much difference in stats, longevity, and personal achievements, this is the only category that can separate the two.
This does suggest that Ribery’s career was better overall. But, no doubt, Robben would make it on many people’s team sheets first. His explosiveness and incredible output in key moments were undeniable.
Sources