Backing before sacking

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Head Start

Back before you sack… the new strategy?

Last year, we saw a record 14 Premier League manager sackings. Ouch.

And, earlier this year, data showed it was worth sacking a manager as early as possible if a team is fighting relegation. 

Yet, despite this, we’ve only seen three manager sackings this year.

That’s even when - rightfully or wrongfully - questions are being asked about some managers in the top flight. 

Exhibit A. Exhibit B.

(And Erik ten Hag might be Exhibit C after Man United’s performance last night).

With far fewer sackings, it begs the question: are Premier League owners changing tact or is there some sort of herbal tea that’s calming everyone down?

It’s hard to tell the latter (we’ll ask around) but we think it might be the former…

… because once an owner backs a manager publicly - well - it often leads to an upturn in form. 

Everyone thought Arsenal’s backing of Mikel Arteta during a bumpy patch was a fluke - but it turns out it’s not:

• Bournemouth's Andoni Iraola was backed in October after they were yet to win a game and now they’re currently 10th in the league.

• Nottingham Forest backed Steve Cooper in April last season and they beat Arsenal, Southampton and Brighton to stay in the top-flight.

• After David Moyes was publicly backed in 2023, West Ham overturned poor form.

• When Manchester United backed Ole, they finished 2nd that season - the joint-highest since Ferguson’s retirement.

You get the picture.

Route One take: Whichever way you look at it, it’s not a perfect science. But, there is something to be said about giving the players something to work for once the club publicly backs a manager. 

So… at least back the manager in the first instance. And if it doesn’t go to plan - well - you know what to do.

Plus…

The BBC will air their new Match of the Day football show next season after winning the rights to show Champions League highlights (More)

Julen Lopetegui has agreed terms with West Ham to become the club’s new head coach in replacement of David Moyes from next season (More)

Manchester United have met with Jadon Sancho during his loan spell at Borussia Dortmund as Erik ten Hag reveals his dispute with the winger will be resolved (More)

Stats Zone

PSG (0) vs (1) Borussia Dortmund

Champions League semi-final 2nd leg

→ This is the eighth meeting between PSG and Dortmund in European competition, with both sides winning two games. But, all four of the victories recorded in this fixture have been by the team playing at home.

→ Dortmund were beaten 2-0 away to the French side in this season’s group stage in Septemeber, with the German side only managing one shot on target. 

Crystal Palace 4 - 0 Manchester United

Premier League MD36 | Highlights here

→ Crystal Palace's Jean-Phillipe Mateta has scored in each of Oliver Glasner's first six home Premier League games, becoming the first player to do so in the competition since Alan Shearer for Kevin Keegan in 1996-97.

→ Manchester United have conceded 81 goals in all competitions this season, their most in a single campaign since 1976-77.

→ For the first time in history, Manchester United have lost 13 games in a single Premier League season.

VAR

A positive for VAR? 

We can’t think of a three-letter word that riles people up more than… VAR.

While there isn’t much to celebrate about VAR this season, we might - might - have just stumbled across a positive. 

So… everyone knows about the ‘home advantage’. It’s universal in sports that the venue has a big impact on the outcome…

… this season alone has seen 46% of wins come at home, with only 31% coming from away visits. 

Something lesser known is that ‘home advantage’ also impacts refereeing decisions… 

• For every home-team player sent off between 1983 to 2001 there were 1.8 away-team players dismissed.

• From 2001 to 2019, the ratio dropped slightly to 1.47.

… but, The Times thinks that VAR has changed the tide.

From 2019 (the introduction of VAR in the Premier League) the ratio has fallen to 1.04 away players sent off per home team. 

In other words, the number of home and away players sent off has levelled out.

It makes sense. Now referees have somewhere to point the blame when they’re feeling the pressure of the home crowd.

But, in reality, it’s probably more to do with rule changes… like the introduction of double jeopardy (just before 2019) and yellow cards - not reds - being used for ball-playing fouls.

We did say might… the jury is still out on this one. 

…. Speaking of VAR…

drum roll please…

It’s time to have your say on our first category of the Route One end-of-season awards: VAR-y Bad decision. 

It’s the vote for the worst decision of the season.

Off The Pitch

🚢 Mark Zuckerberg’s $300 million new superyacht has been spotted in Florida and is causing a stir (More)

🍺 Heineken will reopen 62 pubs that were closed in recent years and invest £39 million in refurbishing hundreds of sites (More)

😘 Emily Blunt says that kissing some actors made her feel sick (More)

🚾 Single-sex lavatories to be compulsory in restaurants, bars and offices under new laws (More)

🇧🇷 Floods in south Brazil displace more than 80,000 residents (More)

🍿 ‘The Fall Guy’ movie featuring Ryan Gosling had a disappointing opening at $28.5 million on a $130 million budget (More)

Around The Football World

🇪🇸 Girona are waiting for UEFA clearance to play in next season’s Champions League due to sister club Manchester City also securing a place in the same competition (More)

🇮🇹 Scottish international Lewis Ferguson has been awarded Serie A midfielder of the year (More)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Philippe Clement has accused Celtic boss Brendan Rodgers of disrespecting Rangers with his “can have a bit of fun” comment ahead of Saturday's Old Firm clash (More)

🇩🇪 Bayern Munich have failed to convince Erik ten Hag to replace Thomas Tuchel at the end of the season, adding another name to the list of managers turning down the role (More)

🇩🇪 Union Berlin have sacked their head coach Nenad Bjelica amid their Bundesliga relegation battle (More)

🇦🇷 Argentina’s coach Cesar Luis Menotti, who led Argentina to the World Cup title in 1978, has died at the age of 85 (More)

Extra Time

Bayern Munich’s home kit next season is - well - different but also the same.

Manchester United fans show unbelievable support despite the team’s poor performance against Palace.

Darwin Nunez deletes all his Liverpool images from Instagram and blocks multiple people on social media.

Birmingham City make an unlikely feature in Tom Brady’s Netflix roast.

A creative Sunday League penalty that not even Thierry and Pires could pull off.

Long read: Diego Maradona’s toxic post-death era is consistent with his chaotic life and career.

Game Face On

Question: Prior to Manchester City’s win in 2023, which was the only city to have produced two winners of the Champions League?

Scroll below for the answer.

On Today

FOOTBALL

Champions League: Paris Saint Germain vs Borussia Dortmund (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 1)

Scottish Premiership: Airdrieonians vs Patrick Thistle (19:45 BST, BBC iPlayer)

League 1: Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley (20:00 BST, Sky Sports Football)

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer: Milan

“The lad must have been born offside.”

-Alex Ferguson on Pippo Inzaghi