Brentford for sale: is the smart money leaving football?

Want to see a really big number? 

Here you go: £400,000,000. That’s the value Matthew Benham - Brentford F.C. owner - wants to sell his club for. 

That number looks even bigger when you realise Benham’s initial investment was £700k.  

The £400mil valuation is possible because Brentford’s 2023 accounts report they have made more profit in two seasons in the Premier League than Manchester United have in 31. As well as being profitable Brentford has established itself as a staple Premier League side.  

Benham is now looking to sell a stake in the club but maintain a minority position for the long term.  

Who’s Matthew Benham? 

Benham owns Brentford F.C. – the clubs he has supported since he was a child - and made his wealth in finance and sports betting.  

Whilst in finance, he wasn’t an investment banker (which is essentially an estate agent for companies), Benham was a hedge fund manager and a derivatives trader. In layman’s terms, this means he analysed stocks and shares, assessed risk and looked for mispriced assets to make bets on.  

As a result of his trading and sports betting background, he sees everything as a choice based on a set of probabilities. Back in 2015, when Benham was asked if Brentford would get promoted, he replied, “We have a 42.3% chance.” 

So, it’s no surprise Brentford were one of the first adaptors of data analysis and has used it to have had a meteoric rise since Benham’s involvement.   

Why is Benham selling? 

There are a few reasons people cash in on a club they’ve helped build: 

• To make money. He doesn’t need the money. He had a successful betting company before investing in Brentford.  

• To distance themselves from a club. Again, not applicable as Benham wants to maintain a minority stake in Brentford.  

• You believe the asset is overpriced. Bingo, we’ve found our winner.  

• The competitive edge which made you successful is going away: Bingo, we’ve found another winner.  

It would make sense for Benham – a former trader and sports bettor – to only sell when he thinks an asset has a high chance of going down in the future. 

Firstly, a club spokesperson said Brentford is exploring “investment” opportunities to remain competitive.   

Since new owners (with much more money than Benham) have entered the Premier League and inflated player prices. And clubs across the world now focus on data analytics, Brentford’s competitive advantage may be about to erode.  

Secondly, former Golden State Warriors minority owner Chamath Palihapitiya says sports valuations will peak in 2024. Chamath paid $25 million for a 10% stake in the Warriors in 2011. But he sold his stake in the team in 2023 and most likely profited more than $250 million.  

Benham is the smart money. And he’s leaving the room... so owners and investors beware. You’ve been warned.