- Route One Newsletter
- Posts
- đ€© The race to 86-points
đ€© The race to 86-points
Plus: the bet that changed West Ham's history
GM football fans. Route One here, the only football newsletter that can get away with wearing as much fake tan as Ben White.
Hmmm⊠letâs not talk about the fact itâs a Monday. Deal?
Letâs get right into itâŠ
Todayâs briefing is a ~3 min read:
86-point theory⊠whoâs on track and whoâs falling behind? đ€
The bet that changed West Hamâs history âïž
Extra time: Patrick Bamfordâs PuskĂĄs Award entry đČ
Morning Brief đïž
PSGâs star man Kylian MbappĂ© is set to join Real Madrid next season, despite reports from The Times on Sunday claiming the Frenchman was making a move to the Premier League.
Jordan Henderson could face over a ÂŁ3m tax bill if he quits Saudi Arabia and returns to the Premier League this January.
Liverpool put together a six-name list of transfer targets. The list includes Wolves winger Pedro Neto who has also caught Arsenalâs attention.
Timo Werner is âat a crossroads in his career, needing to re-prove his potentialâ after his surprise move to Spurs, according to Peter Smith at Sky Sports.
THE 86-POINT THEORY đ€
Weâre only halfway through the season, but that doesnât stop us talking about whoâs going to win the league.
Luckily, one math wizard has come up with a model that might help predict it.
He calls it⊠the 86-point theory.
The original post on Reddit can be found here, but weâll break down everything you need to know.
The theory is simple: a team should achieve around 86 points to compete for the league title.
Thatâs the easy part.
The model breaks down where a team needs to win (or lose) points to have a chance of reaching the 86-point thresholdâŠ
17 home wins = 51 points
2 home draws against the top 2 teams = 2 points
11 away wins vs Bottom 11 = 33 points
That leaves 24 points up for grabs from 8 games⊠he calls those the âmoney-makersâ.
VoilĂ . Follow those instructions and youâve just won the most prestigious competition in club football.
Ok⊠not quite.
But, this model is a useful reference and it can show whoâs on track and whoâs falling behind schedule.
So⊠letâs take a look at the actual league table compared to the 86-point theory.
Data source: u/FormerManyThings
The + / - shows how many points each team is above or below the 86-point model target - this is based on the games already played this season.
Long story short: Liverpool fans have reason to be excited⊠they sit top in both.
As ever, Router, donât shoot the messenger. đ€
Enjoying Route One?
Click below to share
HOW ONE BET CHANGED WEST HAMâS HISTORY đ°
Confused why Aston Villa and West Ham wear the same kit colours?
Donât worry⊠youâre not alone.
But the claret and blue kit clash is no coincidence. It is â uh â because of a small bet that happened over 120 years ago.
First, letâs take you backâŠ
⊠to 1899, when Villa were the top dogs. You might not know this but:
Villaâs director, William McGregor, founded the first English Football League in 1888.
George Ramsey, their manager, was the first ever professional football manager in history.
They were the Manchester City of the day - just without the sweet moolah.
Ramsey forced his side to play an innovative possession-based style that meant Villa dominated for a long time.
Hereâs where it gets interesting
After the (successful) 1889 campaign, four of Villaâs players attended a fayre near Villa Park.
It didnât take long for them to meet William Dove, a famous sprinter known for offering races for a cash wager.
The Villa players accepted and lost the race.
Without any money, they offered Dove a full kit â socks and all.
Dove accepted.
They reported the kit as stolen to the clubâs directors.
When he returned to his home in the capital, he handed the kit to his son, Charlie.
Charlie played right half (right midfield) for Thames Ironworks, an amateur team in Essex.
When he showed up to training with a league-winning claret and blue kit, their manager adopted the same colours.
Thames Ironworks resigned from the Southern League in 1890 and immediately reformed under the new name of West Ham United.
The only thing they did keep the same was the claret and blue kit â and itâs caused eye strain ever since. đ§
EXTRA-TIME â±ïž
Weâre usually quite chatty but, with this one, weâre lost for words. Leedsâ Patrick Bamford secures the PuskĂĄs Award with this one.
Persistence is key⊠except when you turn up to training in your rivalâs kit. When trying to force a transfer move, Dider Lamkel ZĂ© once rocked up to Royal Antwerp training in an Anderlecht jersey. Safe to say⊠they werenât too pleased.
A record 4.8 million tuned in to watch the World Darts Championship final. Yet, we were distracted by Luke Humphries winning the âBallon dâartâ for hitting the most 180s in the tournament. Brilliant! The French would be proud, right?
Scoring goals is a great way to win hearts and minds⊠but nothing works quite like this. Jude Bellingham offered his blanket to this shivering ball boy. Love to see it.
It was Andy Carrollâs birthday on Saturday. It reminded us of when he scored one of the best bicycle kicks in Premier League history.
MEME đ
Source: @UTDEzra_
