Camp leaks crackdown

GM football fans. Route One here, and we’re covering the Euros quarter-final projections, moles in the Euro camps and much more. First time reading? Sign up here.

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Head Start

Euros quarter-final predictions

England remain the favourites to win Euro 2024 according to Opta Analyst and the bookmakers’ odds. 

But in Gareth Southgate’s 100th game as England manager, they aren’t exactly facing easy opposition in Switzerland…

• … who have been the most clinical team at the tournament with a 21.2% shot conversion rate.

• … the third-highest quality of open-play shots.

• … and given up the joint-fewest shots on target - with just 9 throughout the tournament.

Yet, the spread betting markets project that England have a high chance of beating the Swiss (61% chance) in their quarter-final fixture…

… and the data also suggests that the Netherlands will breeze past the most exciting team of the tournament in Türkiye.

The data also predicts that the gap between the Netherlands and Türkiye is the highest in the quarter-finals… 

The other side of the bracket is a completely different story.

Spain and Germany face each other tonight which means that either the second or third favourites of the tournament will be eliminated.

It’s the toughest game to call because… 

• Historically speaking, not much separates these sides (see Euros Stats Zone below). 

• They’ve both been on fine form throughout the tournament, having not lost a single game throughout (7 W, 1 D combined). 

But… both Opta’s ‘Supercomputer’ and the spread betting markets give Spain a slight edge over the hosts.

France and Portugal probably won’t be any easier to call. Both teams have displayed erratic form and most of their star players - well - haven’t done much throughout the tournament.

France, who are favourites going into this fixture, haven’t scored a single goal from open play. They’ve relied on own goals or penalties throughout…

… so don’t expect a lot of goals from this one.

Find the bracket view of the quarter-finals here.

Plus…

Manchester United have triggered a one-year extension in Erik ten Hag’s contract to keep him until 2026 (More)

It’s being reported that Merih Demiral has been banned from Türkiye’s quarter-final against the Netherlands over an extreme right salute (More)

Serious concerns over the hospital care of former footballer Kevin Campbell have been flagged prior to his death (More)

David Raya has signed a long-term contract with Arsenal to complete his permanent move from Brentford (More)

Leicester City appeal after their challenge against Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) was dismissed (More)

Euros Stats Zone

Spain vs Germany (Today at 17:00 BST)

→ No host nation has ever been eliminated at the quarter-final stage of the Euros with all four previous host quarter-finalists progressing.

→ This will be the fourth meeting between Spain and Germany at the Euros, with Spain winning two (1984 and 2008) to Germany’s one (1988). 

→ Spain are unbeaten in their last four major tournament matches against Germany (W2 D2), but Germany are unbeaten against Spain on their own turf.

Portugal vs France (Today at 20:00 BST)

→ Portugal are unbeaten in their last two European Championship games against France.

→ Portugal haven’t scored in their last two matches; they’ve never failed to net in three consecutive games at a single major tournament before.

→ France have kept a clean sheet in three of their four games, the most of any side at the tournament, and they have the lowest expected goals against (xGA) of any side in the quarter-finals.

England vs Switzerland (Saturday 6 at 17:00 BST)

→ England have lost just one of their last 24 meetings with Switzerland in all competitions (W17 D6).

→ England could also record another landmark on Saturday as they aim to become the sixth European side to earn 50 victories at major tournaments.

Euro 2024

Germany take camp moles seriously at Euros

Germany manager Julian Nagelsmann is going to extreme lengths to make sure there are no team news leaks in his camp.

He has reportedly deployed a security team to play loud music around their training pitch to stop media or ‘spies’ from eavesdropping.

The German training camp has also been guarded by high fences and has guards on horseback monitoring the area for any media or shady figures.

Why the paranoia?

Apart from keeping their opponents in the dark, Nagelsmann has a history of ‘moles’ in camps who leak news… 

… like in 2022 when Nagelsmann, then-Bayern Munich coach, was angry that a dressing room ‘mole’ had leaked his tactics to the media. 

The result was that… SportBild, a German sports weekly, published detailed tactical sketches of his plans.

(Side note: It might also have something to do with the fact that his father was a spy…)

But England’s camp has taken a slightly different approach to Nagelsmann as…

… if you hadn’t noticed, England’s formations and lineups at the Euros get leaked days before each game.

(It was reported four (!) days ago that Southgate is going to play a 3-back formation, with Foden and Bellingham both set to play in the number-10 position).

It’s not exactly ideal for your opponent to have four days to prepare.

The leaks haven’t gone down well with fans who feel that the England camp doesn’t have the same grip on team news that other nations do…

As the legendary military strategist Sun Tzu once said, “Know thy enemy and know your yourself”…

… and unfortunately for England, their opponents might know them a little too well ahead of each game.

Off The Pitch

🇬🇧 The UK general election results will be confirmed later today (More)

😬 Greece has introduced a six-day working week for certain industries (More)

🍔 McDonald’s cuts breakfast hours in Australia in response to bird flu egg shortage (More)

🌭 Defending champion Miki Sudo wins Nathan’s annual hot dog eating contest (More)

📸 Victoria and David Beckham recreate their wedding day photos 25 years later (More)

Yesterday’s Poll

Yesterday, we asked you: How do you feel about the blind trust loophole that clubs can use to bypass Multi-club Ownership rules?

Here are the results…

✅ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ Good - it achieves what it's meant to (5%)

❌ 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 Bad - it doesn't achieve anything (92.4%)

✍️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ Other (write in!) (2.5%)

Your punditry takes:

• ❌ T Broadfoot voted ‘Bad’: “The rule exists for a reason and this loophole simply skirts the obvious concern about the outcome of games where the 2 teams play against each other and where economics will play a big part in deciding the outcome.”

• ❌ Steve voted ‘Bad’: “It is still facilitating financial doping.”

• ✅ Jordon B voted ‘Good’: “City can’t be blamed. They’re playing within the rules, but UEFA will be forced to change this sooner or later.”

Around The Football World

🇹🇷 Türkiye’s national team ordered 300 doner kebabs following their victory over Austria in the Round of 16, with one player reportedly eating three to himself (More)

🇩🇪 Germany has summoned Türkiye’s ambassador to the foreign ministry in Berlin over Merih Demiral’s extremist “wolf salute” celebration (More)

🇫🇷 Ethan Mbappé has completed a move to French club Lille after his contract at PSG expired and following his brother’s departure (More)

🇺🇸 Alex Morgan has urged a ‘safe’ environment at The San Diego Wave after former employees publicly cited poor work environments at the club (More)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Newcastle United have announced the appointment of Paul Mitchell as the club’s sporting director (More)

Extra Time

Wayne Rooney’s first team meeting as manager of Plymouth Argyle.

Club ownership diagrams for 12 Premier League clubs.

Kid runs into his house to tell his parents he recreated Bellingham’s bicycle kick.

Laura Woods will host the 2024 Paris Olympics and Gary Neville is booked to DJ at a music festival. 

Watch: Cesc Fabregas breaks down the coaching advice he got from Wenger, Guardiola and Mourinho.

Long read: Why the own goal is running away with the Golden Boot at Euro 2024?

Game Face On

Question: Put the following players in order of how many appearances they’ve made at the European Championships, highest to lowest:

• Andres Iniesta

• Manuel Neuer

• Pepe

• Toni Kroos

• Cristiano Ronaldo

• Gianluigi Buffon

Scroll below for the answer.

On This Weekend

FOOTBALL

Friday 5th

• Euros: Portugal vs France (17:00 BST)

• Euros: Spain vs Germany (20:00 BST)

Saturday 6th

• Euros: England vs Switzerland (17:00 BST)

• Euros: Netherlands vs Turkey (20:00 BST)

• MLS: Major League Soccer fixtures here.

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer

• Cristiano Ronaldo - 29

• Pepe - 22

• Manuel Neuer - 19

• Toni Kroos - 18

• Gianluigi Buffon - 17

• Andres Iniesta - 16

Hottest Take of the Day

Today’s Hottest Take of the Day was submitted by Ethan from West Virginia: Gareth Bale was easily a greater natural athlete than Cristiano Ronaldo; a true baller. However, it's Ronaldo’s superhuman work ethic that puts him above Bale.

Submit another Hot Take of the Day here.