Hello fellow managers.

Gameweek 18 is approaching thick and fast.

Here’s what to expect from today’s analysis of GW18’s defensive analysis:

• A focus on clean sheets

• Premium defensive options

• Differential defensive options

Let’s get into it…

Focusing on clean sheets

The reason we focus on clean sheets in my defensive analysis is that it’s easier to predict a defender’s total points by looking at their defensive stats - not their attacking stats.

It’s something we’ve covered in detail previously in another blog, Rethinking Defensive Transfers - Stats Summary On Making Better Decisions.

So… let’s analyse the defender’s stats this season. 

Key takeaways:

• Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.2m) is the most premium selection this season. He is offering clean sheets and attacking returns - this makes him the best-performing DEF this season in terms of FPL points. 

• Kieran Trippier (£6.9m) follows closely behind. He’s a much cheaper option than TAA. He offers less goal threat but has already reached 7 assists this season. 

• Arsenal defenders are a safe bet. Saliba (£5.5m) is nailed to start, Zinchenko and White will also get minutes with Timber and Tomiyasu out. 

• Pedro Porro (£5.5m) is creeping up the list. But Spurs are fifth worst for xCS this season, so you have to rely on his attacking returns - this is a riskier approach. 

• Everton defenders, Mykolenko (£4.6m) and Tarkowski (£4.5m) are interesting options - though the former may be out with injury. They have 4 clean sheets in 4 and it’s debatable whether they can keep up this defensive strength because they have a difficult set of fixtures coming up.

Premium Defending Options

If you’ve sold Haaland, money isn’t an issue. You can now think about bringing in Alexander Arnold (£8.2m) for Gameweek 18. 

He has achieved 84 points this campaign with two goals and three assists. 

TAA has 1.13 big chance involvements (compared to Trippier’s 0.43) which suggests he’s creating more quality chances as the premium options. 

But, most importantly, he’s proving to be the bonus point magnet that we know him as. 

In the last four games, he’s been awarded maximum bonus points in three games, and two bonus points in the Crystal Palace fixture. He’s achieved that despite “blanking” in two of those fixtures.

So… he can assist, garner bonus points, and might get a goal… 

But, Liverpool’s fixture run isn’t ideal. They face Arsenal twice in the next six games and face Newcastle, Bournemouth and Chelsea in the same run which aren’t exactly clean-sheet territories. 

The other thing to consider is whether Liverpool makes it to the Carabao Cup final which would mean they would have a blank in GW26.

But, equally, this might initiate a double gameweek for the Reds before or after the final - in which case, TAA would be the best defensive option.

Then there’s the question of whether to stick or twist with Kieran Trippier (£6.9m). 

He returns from his one-match ban, and now that he’s rested, he might be back to his best.

He still ranks first for expected goal involvements (xGI) among defenders this season at 5.6. 

When looking at Newcatle’s fixtures, he looks like the only option for GW18 and the preceding options. While it’s not bad to have the likes of Lascelles (£4.2m) and Livramento (£4.4m), their minutes aren’t as nailed with more Magpie defenders returning from injury. 

What’s more, Newcastle’s fixture run is tough.

And don’t be fooled by that Luton (A) fixture… the Hatters have scored against Machester City, Arsenal and Liverpool at home the season.

They’re expensive options, so managers will be worrying about ways to get Haaland back into their team. 

But, fear not, with Salah and Son off to AFCON and the Asia Cup, selling them will open up a route back into City’s main man. 

Then there’s Pedro Porro (£5.5m).

The attacking full-back has two four assists this season, all of which have come within his last six games. 

Think of him as a cheaper option to Trippier, as he sits second to the Newcastle man when it comes to expected assists and xGI, but he’s exceeded his tally by one in both categories - 4 compared to 3.

Spurs’ next four or five are ideal for an attacking full-back to rack up points. 

Everton, who they face next, will be the toughest fixture of the lot given they’re fifth best for expected goals conceded away from home. 

But, Brighton hasn’t had a clean sheet this season so GW19 could prove fruitful for Porro owners. 

Other DEF Options

With his pricetag, Ezri Konsa (£4.5m) looks tempting. 

Villa are immense at home, so if you already have Pau Torres, a fixture against Sheffield United (H) could be the perfect time to double up on their assets. 

And the doubling up of Villa defenders isn’t just a short-term move, as they have a decent run of games coming up… 

At the time of writing, Konsa has a 1.9% ownership… a great differential indeed. 

At a similar price, Levi Colwill (£4.6m) is another option.

He’s registered three clean sheets and two assists this campaign. 

Depending on your appetite for Chelsea assets, his next few fixtures look like opportunities to secure a clean sheet or two. 

With Marc Cucurella out of action, Colwill’s minutes seem secure.

Some managers will look to bring in Gusto (£4.1m) but his minutes aren’t as secure. Keep an eye on Chelsea’s midweek cup fixture to see whether Poch starts him, or whether he needs more time to get up to speed before starting. 

Lastly, it’s difficult to ignore a defensive Everton asset. 

There are quite a few options here and Vitaly Mykolenko (£4.6m) looked a good option but he might be out with a groin injury. 

So… Tarkowski (£4.5m) might be the best option. He’s Everton’s highest-scoring defender this season with 64 points.

Brandthwaite is a great enabler at £4.1m as he has been nailed to start and play 90 minutes since gameweek 3.

He has played every game, having netted one himself and provided an assist. 

There’s one clear issue… their fixture run isn’t ideal when trying to secure a clean sheet.

Despite their great underlying stats, only go with Everton defenders if you’re chasing points.