Gm football fans. Route One here, the newsletter that always catches the early worm.

Today’s briefing is a ~5 min read:

1. Newcastle’s £700m transfer jackpot 🎰

2. Around The World: Suarez makes big claim about Uruguay teammate 😳

3. Fantasy Premier League: GW13 forward analysis 🎯

Morning Brief 🗞️

EDDIE HOWE JANUARY JACKPOT 🎰

Newcastle’s January transfer window could be box office.

Eddie Howe’s side has £700m to play with… but it’s not what you might think.

We’re not talking cash. We’re talking about a sneaky workaround that Newcastle can use.

What do we mean? On Tuesday, Premier League clubs voted to not ban loaning players between clubs who share owners.

This means that Newcastle, with their Saudi backing, can sneak superstars from the Saudi league on loan… all whilst avoiding Financial Fair Play rules.

So, how would this work? Well, Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns Newcastle and they also own a sh*t ton of other teams in the Saudi Pro League.

And the PIF spent £700m last summer alone. Let’s break it down…

• Al-Hilal - £320m, including Neymar, Mitrovic, and Ruben Neves.

• Al-Ahli - £180m, including Firmino, Mahrez, and Mendy.

• Al-Ittihad - £105m, including Benzema, Kante, and Fabinho.

• Al-Nassr - £95m, including C.Ronaldo, Mane, and Laporte.

The good news… more superstars could feature in the Premier League. We might get Cristiano Ronaldo and Benzema for half a season or two.

The bad news… smaller clubs will be disadvantaged. When times get tough, they won’t have an elite overseas team to loan from.

What’s more, only European teams are subject to FFP. That’s perfect for the Saudi-owned clubs that can generate losses into the billions without punishment.

How would Newcastle avoid FFP? Like this…

• The Saudi Clubs pay the superstars wages.

• The Premier League teams get loaned the superstars for (virtually) nothing.

No wonder Howe has been treating his press conferences like a cross-examination and remains coy about his January plans.

With his injury list growing, it’s going to be tempting to exploit Newcastle’s sister clubs.

• Tonali suspended? Kante in, please.

• Botman out until December? Laporte, don’t mind if I do.

• Wilson out for a number of weeks? Ronaldo, fancy playing in the Champions League again?

Look, Newcastle aren’t the only troublemakers. Some of the other big boys will exploit the multi-club model.

Chelsea fans… we’re looking at you. Clearlake Capital, the Blues owners, bought Strasbourg in Ligue 1 for “player development”.

Yeah, right…

The boys in Manchester will want a piece of the multi-club pie.

City Football Group owns clubs including New York City, Girona (top of La Liga), Melbourne City and Troyes.

Manchester United stakeholder Jim Ratcliffe owns the French side Nice.

Nice… indeed.

None of these teams boast the likes of Neymar or Ronaldo but could prove useful.

To be honest, with all this talk of dodgy loans, we’re looking forward to January’s window already.

AROUND THE WORLD IN 60 SECS 🌍

🇦🇷 Lionel Messi’s World Cup-winning shirt is expected to be auctioned for more than $10m. This could set a record for the most expensive piece of match-worn sports memorabilia. The current holder is Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls jersey from the 1998 NBA finals which sold for $10.1m in September 2022.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Luke Shaw is back training with Manchester United. The England defender has returned after recovering from a muscle injury.

🇮🇹 AC Milan has identified Bournemouth defender Lloyd Kelly as a top target. Following a major injury to their current first-choice right-back, they need a replacement. Lloyd Kelly is into the last year of his Cherries contract.

🇧🇷 Brazil has never failed to qualify for the World Cup. But they face an uphill battle as they currently sit sixth in the South American qualifying group, one place outside of elimination.

🇺🇾 Uruguay sit second in their World Cup qualifying group following a 3-0 win over Bolivia. Luis Suarez hails compatriot Darwin Nunez as “one of the best number nines in the world” following his two goals. No pressure, Darwin.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE 🎯

Gameweek 13 - FWD analysis

Ok, gang, gameweek 13 is approaching faster than we expected.

And it’s time to start thinking about who’s going to make it upfront.

You know us, we’re nice guys, so we thought we’d share our analysis of the attackers going into GW13.

Let’s start with goal involvements compared to expected goal involvements.

Key takeaways 🔑

• Haaland is perfectly on track with xGI. Fantasy Football Hub do predict City will get the most points between GW 13-17. But they do have a tough run with Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Luton away (which has proven to be a tough fixture this season). Liverpool and Spurs are at the Etihad and Haaland is still expected to return.

• Clinical or over-performing? Watkins, Alvarez and Darwin are all overperforming their expected goal involvements. But, every manager should worry whether their goal involvement will return to their baseline.

• Jackson looking worse than first thought. He is underperforming the most in terms of xGI, perhaps because he hasn't assisted this season. He also achieved 50% of his goals (6) in one game versus a depleted Spurs side.

• Awoniyi, good budget option? Slightly outperforming his xGI and Notts Forest have a decent run of games. Per 90 minutes, his xG and xP are higher than Solanke's. At £6.4m he looks a decent option for anyone short on cash.

In the Route One office, we also like to look at big chances and shots in the box.

It’s a good way to see whether a striker is taking up good positions on the pitch.

Here are the results:

Key takeaways 🔑

Solanke impresses here. He has lots of shots in the box, and while his big chances is average, that's expected from a team that creates fewer chances in general.

Bournemouth has a favourable fixture run too, and they face Sheffield United next, who have the worst home defensive record this season. At £6.4m, he's looking like a great budget pairing with Haaland.

Watkins looks impressive again here too. But, Villa has a difficult fixture run and they rank bottom on Fantasy Football Hub's fixture ticker over the next 5 gameweeks.

He has had 2 goals and four assists in the last 4 gameweeks... it's just whether he can keep this up in a relatively tough run.

Alvarez looks like a less attractive asset. He's clinical and has good goal involvements, but we struggle to include him as a long-term FWD with low shots in the box and big chances.

TL/DR

🤩 Haaland is still the main man.

💰 Solanke and Awonyi are good budget options. Solanke is the better option, given the run of games and Awonyi's recent injury.

⛔️ Watkins is good… but beware of the risk. Villa's fixture run is the hardest according to Fantasy Football Hub.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Fabio Quagliarella has a finish as fancy as his name. The Italian striker has retired from football at the age of 40, which is a great excuse to post his most unforgettable goal.

Throwback to the first time Gary Neville made a weird noise on commentary. If only we knew this was the first of many. Enjoy Torres scoring that famous goal against Barcelona in the 2012 Champions League semi-final with Neville unable to control himself in the background. 🤣

Is it too late for Bernardo Silva to start working on his right foot? The Manchester City ace says he regrets not working on his weak foot more when he was younger. Here at Route One, we didn’t know he had a weak foot.

Darwin Nunez continues his hot streak with two goals against Bolivia for Uruguay. His opener was taken beautifully first-time.

Winner stays on. Micah Richards compares the greatest Prem Strikers of all time in a winner-stays-on format. Does he let his Manchester City bias get the better of him here?

MEME 😆