Euros favourites change

GM football fans. Route One here, and we’re covering the projections for Euro 2024, why Copa America has small pitches, and much more. First time reading? Sign up here.

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Head Start

England still favourites to win the Euros

At the start of the Euros, England were tipped as favourites and they continue to be as we head into the round of 16, according to Opta’s ‘Supercomputer’.

But despite the projected top spot not changing, Spain and Germany have impressed and both moved up the pecking order by one place… 

… while France move two places down to 4th favourites.

These moves are understandable. Spain were the only team to win all three of their group games (in arguably the hardest group), Germany had the second-best xGC (expected goals conceded) and France have a tough draw, potentially facing - Belgium, Portugal, and Spain/Germany before the final.

But how are England still clear favourites, despite those - let’s say - yawn performances?

The easy answer: England have a far ‘kinder’ half of the knockout stage draw compared to the rest of their cohort.

(Something which Gareth Southgate has a knack for.)

The slightly complicated answer: England have the best xGC by far (1.1), with the next in line being Germany (1.8). And knock-out tournament often favours sides that are defensively sound.

Plus, data from spread betting markets suggest that England should find their shooting boots sooner rather than later in the RD16… 

… that’s despite having the worst expected goals (xG) - yes, lower than Slovakia and Slovenia - in the group stages. 

Anyway, with so many of the ‘favourites’ on one half of the draw, could we end up having a surprise winner of Euro 2024? This competition has given us surprises before… so we’re not counting it out.

Plus…

Erik ten Hag is close to agreeing a new contract with Manchester United, with lots of changes to the coaching staff on the horizon (More)

FIFA will host its first-ever FIFAe World Cup of Football Manager this year with $100,000 prize money (More)

Chelsea are interested in signing Nottingham Forest defender Murillo (More)

Billionaire ex-PM offers £8.4 million gift to Georgia squad after qualifying for the last 16 on their first Euros appearance (More)

International Comps Stats Zone

Copa America: Paraguay vs Brazil (Today at 18:00 PDT)

→ Paraguay have only won one of their last six games in all competitions (D2 L3).

→ Brazil recorded 49 entries into Costa Rica’s penalty area on Matchday 1, their joint-highest figure in a Copa America match since such data began being recorded in 2011.

Euros: Germany vs Denmark (Saturday 29 at 20:00 BST)

→ There appears to be nothing to split these two sides in terms of head-to-head records, with both winning two of four previous meetings at major tournaments.

→ Niclas Füllkrug has scored four goals in six major tournament appearances for Germany, with all games and goals coming as a substitute.

→ Denmark have lost all five of their previous Euros matches against host nations.

Euros: Switzerland vs Italy (Saturday 29 at 17:00 BST)

→ It’s a one-side head-to-head as Switzerland are winless in 11 matches against Italy in all competitions (D6 L5).

→ This will be the teams’ fifth meeting at a major international tournament; the Swiss won both games at the 1954 World Cup but Italy have won the last two.

→ The only European nation currently on a longer run than Switzerland of reaching the knockout stages at major tournaments (six in a row) is France (seven).

Copa America

Why Copa America is being played on small pitches

The Copa America tournament is being played on the smallest pitch size permitted for an international fixture.

100 metres long and 64 metres wide.

The size of the pitches are of a similar dimension to what is used for under-13 academy players in England, according to The Athletic. 

What explains this bizarre decision? For obvious reasons, the organisers of the tournament wanted every pitch to be the same size…

… and, with the tournament hosted in the United States, most of the stadiums in use were built for NFL matches… which use even smaller pitches for their games (110 metres and 49 metres wide).

(While MLS stadiums are available, they can’t handle the attendance that the tournament demands - and you know what that means, less revenue. A big no no.)

As the penalty area must remain the same size (regardless of the size of the pitch), it has meant that fast wingers are finding almost no space to roam on the flanks. And with Copa America’s abundance of fast wingers, that’s not exactly ideal.

I know what you’re thinking… what about the 2026 World Cup hosted in the US, Mexico and Canada?

Well, there’s no need to worry. All the venues at the 2026 World Cup will have to comply with FIFA’s strict regulations around pitch size - a playing surface that is 105m x 68m. For context, that’s the same as is seen in the Premier League.

Phew.

Off The Pitch

The most valuable Harry Potter item ever sold at auction’ is a book cover at £1.5m (More)

One person in England has died linked to the ongoing E. coli outbreak, the UK Health Security Agency has said (More)

Bolivian general arrested after apparent coup attempt (More)

The FBI offer a £4 million reward in a hunt for ‘Cryptoqueen’ (More)

Egyptian scribes suffered work-related injuries, study says (More)

Photo of the Day

30 years ago today. Diego Maradona is mobbed by the media in a Dallas press conference after failing a random drug test at the ‘94 World Cup. He had played just two games before testing positive for a banned substance, ephedrine, and was subsequently removed from the tournament. Theories ensued around what caused the positive test - including the energy drink Rip Fuel which Maradona drank in troves, supposedly containing lots of ephedrine. Regardless of the cause, it marked the end of the legend’s 17-year-long international career.

Around The Football World

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Fixtures for the 2024/25 Scottish Premiership season have been announced (More)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea have emerged as strong contenders to sign Lucy Bronze after Barcelona announced the England right-back would leave when her contract expires on Sunday (More)

🇩🇪 Toni Kross hits out at the “black and white” coverage of the Germany team’s performance at Euro 2024 (More)

🇸🇦 Nacho has joined Saudi Pro League club Al Qadsiah on a two-year deal after leaving Real Madrid (More)

🌍 All the 141 transfers in the Women’s transfer window summer 2024 (More)

Extra Time

ESPN’s Euro 2024 power rankings released.

Manchester City release a merchandise collaboration with the WWE… 

… and make a dramatic promo video to match.

Manchester United’s new coach René Hake will not take any prisoners next season.

Michail Antonio scores Jamaica’s first Copa América goal ever.

England’s route to the Euro 2024 Final according to Opta.

Hakan Çalhanoglu’s technique for this goal was out of this world.

Game Face On

Question: In 1968, Italy’s semi-final against the Soviet Union ended 0-0 after extra time in Naples. How was the game decided?

Hint: Chance favoured one side.

Scroll below for the answer.

On Today

FOOTBALL

Copa America: Colombia vs Costa Rica (00:30 BST)

Copa America: Paraguay vs Brazil (02:00 BST)

MLS: New York City FC vs Orlando City (00:30 BST)

CRICKET

One Day International: India Womens vs South Africa Womens (05:00 BST)

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer

Italy won a coin toss and advanced to the final. 

Giacinto Facchetti called tails in the dressing room – then ran back out to let the 70,000 fans in the ground know the outcome. Italy went on to beat Yugoslavia 2-0 in a replayed final; penalty shootouts were brought in for the 1972 tournament

Hottest Take of the Day

S Khan’s hottest take today is: Harry Kane should not be starting for England. His remarkable achievements both this season, and historically, are undeniable. However, his age is becoming evident. His lack of speed and strength, and tendency to drop deep into his own half, hinder England’s productivity. He is playing alongside top-tier creative midfielders and wingers, and he has no need to be doing it. By doing so, he is removing that pass/cross into the box option. Furthermore, he struggles against younger, more physical center-backs. While the entire England team faces challenges, reconsidering Kane’s role could be a pivotal starting point. Unfortunately, as soon as he scores one, we all forgive him and ignore the issue, as well as it appears that Southgate prioritizes big names, and fitting them in no matter how out of position, or non-optimal, over tactical suitability when assembling the team.

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