Euros opener preview

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Front Row Preview

Germany vs Scotland

Today | 8 PM BST | Group A

It’s here… the European Championship 2024 starts today.

Regardless of where you’re watching the game tonight - at the pub, on the sofa, or at the in-laws - it’s going to be a good one.

Let’s not waste any more time… on to the opening game: Germany vs Scotland.

It only makes sense to start with the hosts, Germany. 

The three-time Euros-winning nation feel comfortable at home. Of the four times that Germany have hosted a major tournament, they’ve reached the final at the last three tournaments.

And while they’ll be without Mats Hummels, Serge Gnabry, Leon Goretzka and Alexsandar Pavlovic, they have the talent to write the wrongs for failing to make it out of Group E at the last World Cup…

• Florian Wirtz had 22 goal contributions (11 goals, 11 assists) during Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten league campaign.

• Jamal Musiala recorded 16 goal involvements in 24 Bundesliga games for Bayern Munich this season (10 goals, 6 assists), and no one attempted more than his 7.8 dribbles per 90.

But they aren’t spotless…

As much as they are secure on home soil, they have a weak record playing in Munich - where the opener is taking place. In fact, they’ve only won one of their last five matches played in the city.

Not a great record.

Plus, Scotland have shown their quality after winning their first five Euros 2024 qualifiers… 

… yes, admittedly, their form has dipped without a win in their last three. But this Scottish team has something about them… overcoming 23 years of difficulties.

Let’s be honest… on paper, the Germans are favourites to win the opener. That said, the Scots will be hopeful they can make it out of the group (with Hungary and Switzerland), regardless of tonight’s result.

• 💉 Germany Quick-Hit: Jupp Derwall was the last German coach to win a major tournament at his first attempt - Euro 1980.

• 💉 Scotland Quick-Hit: After a 23-year wait, the Scottish national team has qualified for two major tournaments, consecutively.

Euros Group Stage Snapshot

Group B: Spain vs Croatia (Saturday, 15 June, 17:00 BST)

→ Spain have won two of their previous three encounters with Croatia (5-3 at Euro 2020, 1-0 at Euro 2012), while they were beaten 2-1 at Euro 2016.

→ Spain have had the most possession in each of their last 136 competitive games since beating Germany in the Euro 2008 final.

→ Three of the last five meetings between Spain and Croatia have had at least five goals.

Group B: Italy vs Albania (Saturday, 15 June, 20:00 BST)

→ This will be Italy and Albania’s first meeting at a major tournament. But Italy have won all four of their previous meeting with Albania with a +6 goal difference.

→ Italy’s 45 matches at European Championships have produced 1.84 goals on average, the lowest ratio of any of the 25 teams to have taken part in 10+ matches.

→ Albania are making only their second appearance at a European Championship, and their first since Euro 2016 when they were eliminated in the group stage, finishing third behind France and Switzerland. 

Group C: Serbia vs England (Sunday, 16 June, 20:00 BST)

→ Five of England’s squad have scored over 15 Premier League goals this season, and six have reached the 20-goal mark.

→ Serbia have won just two of their last six competitive games, with those wins coming against Lithuania (3-1) and Montenegro (3-1). In that time they have also lost twice to Hungary and drawn twice with Bulgaria.

Link to the full list of fixtures here.

Head Start

🔵 Kerr’s new contract: Chelsea have temporarily renamed their stadium ‘Samford Bridge’ in honour of Sam Kerr signing a new contract until 2026. Since joining Chelsea in 2019, Kerr has played a vital role in securing five WSL title wins, three FA Cup triumphs and two League Cup victories. Kerr has also scored 99 goals in 128 matches for The Blues. 

😬 More legals: Fifpro, the global footballers’ union, has gone through with its threat of court action against FIFA over players’ burnout at the expanded Club World Cup. England’s Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA) is also leading the lawsuit asking a Belgian court to refer the case to the European Court of Justice. 

🟡 Terzic out: Edin Terzic has resigned as the head coach of the Champions League runners-up Borussia Dortmund. The 41-year-old asked the club to terminate his contract and Dortmund agreed to the request after a joint discussion. Nuri Şahin is the clear favourite to be the new head coach, reports BILD.

Plus… 

• VAR calls will be explained to fans on stadium screens at the Euros (More)

• TV viewers of the Euros will see “touch detection” graphics used by referees to make decisions (More)

• West Ham complete the signing of Brazilian starlet Luis Guilhereme (More)

• Chelsea and Newcastle approach Crystal Palace about signing Michael Olise. His release clause is around £60 million (More)

Game In Numbers

International football is a different ball game to the Prem

The Premier League saw a record 3.3 goals per game last season. It was an absolute goal-fest… 

… but the stats show that we can’t expect the same from the upcoming Euros or Copa America.

Why? Well, because international tournaments don’t tend to produce a lot of goals. Not since 1958 has a World Cup or Euros produced more than three goals per game. 

This tournament is unlikely to buck the trend. 

That’s because the Euros this year is not using the same stoppage-time rules enforced by the Premier League.

The updated stoppage-time directive in the English top flight - which made games much longer (in case you hadn’t noticed!) - resulted in the highest-scoring season on record.

In fact, 10% of goals were scored in the second half of added time by February. 

(Side note: the Qatar World Cup in 2022 used the same directive as the Premier League and, guess what, longer games meant it was the highest-scoring World Cup to date.)

It’s simple maths… less minutes = less goals.

But there’s another difference between international and club football: playstyle. 

The nature of knock-out football makes it cagey and defensive. And teams prefer to counterattack (fast and direct) and rely on transitions…

… but it’s becoming less and less fashionable at club level which sees more possesional and intricate passages.

(I’m looking at you, Pep).

As you can imagine, passions are high at the international level. Data shows that tournament football sees more fouls - the 2022 World Cup saw 23.8 fouls per game, compared to 21.3 in the Premier League.

And penalties are almost a given. Hear this…

• The 2018 World Cup had 29 penalties awarded - the most in the competition’s history.

• The 2020 Euro had 16 penalties awarded - the most in the competition’s history.

This can be explained by ‘harsher’ interpretations of the handball rule by referees… though club football is following a similar trend since the introduction of VAR.

(A longer piece than usual today… can you tell we’re excited?!)

Off The Pitch

🌍 G7 leaders have agreed a $50 billion loan plan for Ukraine (More)

🎨 A Renaissance painting found at a London bus stop set to sell for up to £25 million (More)

🤑 Elon Musk says Tesla shareholders support his $50 billion pay package (More)

🇬🇷 Athens closes Acropolis and schools as heatwaves have been issued by Greece’s weather service, with forecasts predicting conditions just below 40C (104F) (More) 

🇮🇹 A brawl erupted in Italy’s parliament on Wednesday (More) 

🛌 A new study explains the link between sleep quality and memory (More)

Game Face On

Question: What is the name given for a chip penalty after the player who scored a winning spot kick to secure Czechoslovakia’s first-ever major trophy in 1976?

Scroll below for the answer.

Extra Time

Lionel Messi’s full interview with ESPN.

Harry Kane just won the Bundesliga Goal of the Season with this strike.

Oxford United’s hilarious announcement video for Josh McEachran.

Remembering when Rafa Nadal put six past Iker Casillas.

Crystal Palace reveal their 2024/25 home kit…

… and the “conspiracy” behind their new sponsor.

Gareth Bale on winning too many Champions Leagues.

Answer

Panenka after Antonín Panenka’s famous chip penalty (Watch here)

Hottest Take of the Day

Today’s Hottest Take of the Day is: Belgium will flop again at the Euros. They will probably qualify from their group but they won’t do anything in the knock-out stages. Thanks to Raya from San Diego for the entry. Submit another Hot Take of the Day here.