FA Cup outrage

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FA Cup Semi-Finals

Ok, ladies and gents. If we’re being honest, Matchday 34 doesn’t have the most exciting matchups. 

That’s because it’s not a complete line of games… 

… but the FA Cup semi-finals are something to look forward to:

• Manchester City vs Chelsea (Sat, 17:15 BST)

• Coventry City vs Manchester United (Sun, 15:30 BST)

First, let’s look at the teams with the third and fourth most FA Cup wins: City vs Chelsea.

City have - surprisingly - only progressed in two of their six semi-finals under Pep, winning against Brighton and Sheffield United.

And, hear this, three of four of City’s losses came against London clubs…

… enter Chelsea. 

The Blues are in good form…

• They’re unbeaten inside 90 minutes in 12 games across all comps.

• They’ve scored at least two goals in their last eight games.

But, you know what they say… a wounded lion is more dangerous. And after City’s loss to Real Madrid and one of three titles slipping away, Pep’s men won’t want a repeat of Wednesday night.

Oh, and City haven’t lost a game against Chelsea in their last eight meetings.

No doubt Poch will be betting on tired legs from Wednesday night’s 120-minute Champions League battle.

• 💉 City Quick Hit: Erling Haaland has a goal every 32.8 minutes in the FA Cup.

• 💉 Chelsea Quick Hit: Pochettino has failed to progress from four of eight major semi-finals in his managerial career.

… and let’s not forget Coventry City vs Manchester United.

In theory (and according to Opta’s computers) United should win.

But, for the romantics, don’t rule out Coventry…

• The Sky Blues have scored 19 goals in the FA Cup this season, more than any other side.

• They’ve beaten a top-flight side, Wolves, in the Quarter Finals this FA Cup campaign. 

All I’m saying… if Coventry do win, it’d be perfect timing in light of the FA Cup replays being scrapped next year (see story below).

Anyway, let’s hope United doesn’t have to wear Convetry’s away kit (like Chelsea did 27 years ago). 

Last night’s results…

Europa League: Atalanta 0 - 1 Liverpool (3 - 1) | Marseille 1 - 0 Benfica (Marseille won 4-2 on pens) - 2) | Roma 2 - 1 AC Milan (3 - 1) | West Ham 1 - 1 B Leverkusen (1 - 3)

Europa Conference League: Lille 2 - 1 Aston Villa (Villa won 4-3 on pens) | Fiorentina 2 - 0 Victoria Plzen (2-0) | Fenerbahçe 1 - 0 Olympiakos (Olympiakos won 3-2 on pens) | PAOK Salonika 0 - 2 Club Bruges (0 - 3)

Matchday 34 Snapshot

Wolves vs Arsenal (Saturday 20, 19:30 BST - Sky Sports)

→ Wolves have lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.

→ Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions, their joint-longest scoring streak against an opponent in the club’s history.

Everton vs Nottingham Forest (Sunday 21, 13:30 - Sky Sports)

→ A huge relegation six-pointer. Victory for Everton could make them five points clear of the bottom three, if Luton loses to Brentford. If Forest win, they leapfrog the Toffees.

→ It’s an interesting matchup… Forest have just one win in their last eight league game against Everton, but the Toffees have the fewest home wins (10) and lost the most home games (17) since the start of last season.

Fulham vs Liverpool (Sunday 21, 16:30 - Sky Sports)

→ Liverpool are looking to avoid consecutive losses in the Premier League for the first time since April 2023.

→ But, The Reds have had bad form in London this season, having only won two out of five trips to the capital. 

Link to this weekend’s fixture list here.

Head Start

😬 Champions League fifth-spot blunder: The Premier League could miss out on an additional place in next season’s Champions League. Two nations will be awarded a fifth place in next season’s competition. The performance of Serie A sides in Europe is set to guarantee an Italian side a slot, and the second spot based on coefficients will either go to the Premier League or Bundesliga - and following Arsenal’s exit to Bayern Munich on Wednesday, there’s a chance that the English top flight misses out.

The coefficient ranking for an extra UCL spot (as of April 18):

1. Italy — 18.428

2. Germany — 17.642

3. England — 16.875

4. Spain — 15.312

5. France — 15.250

🙅‍♂️ Mourinho bans Schweinsteiger: Former Germany and Bayern Munich midfielder appeared on The Overlap, revealing that Jose Mourinho banned him from training with Manchester United’s first-team training. The Portuguese manager later apologised for the way he treated Schweinsteiger once he had left the club.

🤫 Transfer gossip: Newcastle’s Alexander Isak and Crystal Palace’ Michael Olise have been identified by Arsenal as key targets this summer. Manchester City also have Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala on the top of their wish list.

FA Cup Replays

FA Cup replays scrapped… and it’s not good news

There’s big news for the FA Cup… the FA and Premier League has announced that FA Cup replays will be scrapped next season.

What does this mean? Well, put simply, if any first-round FA Cup match ends in a draw, the game will go to extra time and then a penalty shootout. This removes the need to replay matches to determine the result.

Hmm. Well, players have busy schedules, maybe it’s reasonable, right?

Wrong.

The problem is… removing replays means that EFL clubs miss out on lucrative broadcast and matchday revenue.

It’s a classic case of sticking it to the little guy as the ‘big’ Premier League clubs (most, not all) support the move. 

Yet, replays have been a vital financial lifeline… even for current top-flight clubs. 

Take Brentford. In 2005, they were in £7 million debt in League One, and the replay against Southampton earned the club £500,000 to help steady the boat. 

So, what’s next?

The EFL is seeking compensation for its clubs’ potential loss of revenue.

And, while the Premier League has pledged another £33 million to lower-league sides, this issue goes beyond money… 

… as EFL clubs were blindsided and only Premier League clubs were consulted on the announcement.

Premier League clubs are, in effect, dictating the outcomes of all English football clubs. Not cool, guys.

Off The Pitch

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💰 The State Pension in Luxembourg is £5,200 per month, £4,243 more than the UK’s State Pension (More)

🎬 Martin Scorsese has two actors in mind for an upcoming movie about Jesus Christ (More)

🌳 Sounds of nature will start making music royalties (More)

😬 Hospital admits giving newborn baby to wrong mother (More)

🚬 Smoking among younger middle-class women is up 25% in a decade (More)

🎶 Sons of Paul McCartney and John Lennon release new song (More)

Fantasy Premier League

Free Hit Gameweek 34  📊

We’re at the business end of the FPL season and that means three things:

• Chips

• Chips

• Chips

Not the type you eat on a Friday night… the type that wins your FPL mini-leagues.

And this Gameweek’s (GW) most activated chip is the Free Hit.

The Free Hits allows managers to temporarily swap out their entire 15-man squad for a single GW before it returns to its previous state for the following GWs. The Free Hit resets saved-up transfers, returning to one for the next GW.

To help you navigate the Free Hit, Spiros Valouxis’ draft team comes in handy:

His team is based on an AI model, which we like because it’s as unbiased as you can get when it comes to FPL…

… and his AI team is currently top 20k in the world… not too shabby. 

Other notable names not included in the AI team:

• Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) - Fulham (A), Everton (A)

The model assumes he won’t play the full 180 minutes available because he recently returned from injury. If he was expected to play both games in full, he would be selected for the AI-generated team.

• Kai Havertz (£7.4m) - Wolves (A), Chelsea (A)

To include him or not depends on two things:

1. Do you want to include Saka, plus double Arsenal defence?

2. Do you think he will play in midfield? 

If the answer to any of those is yes, then he’s an avoid. The model prefers a double-Arsenal defence to a double-Arsenal attack given they have the best expected clean sheets in the league. 

• Jean-Philippe Marteta (£5.0m) - West Ham (H), Newcastle (H)

Betting big on Palace's attack is risky at the best of times but tripling up on them is unheard of. But with such a favourable double coming up, we can see why people are tempted. Plus, Marteta has four goals in seven games. 

Captaincy for Gameweek 34 🫡 

According to Fantasy Football Hub, the captaincy front runners are players with double GWs.

🥇 Mo Salah (£13.4m) - Fulham (A), Everton (A)

• Salah has 17 goals and nine assists this season and is chasing the Golden Boot for a fourth time.

• Liverpool is expected to score 2.5+ goals in both games according to the xG stats.

🥈 Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) - Wolves (A), Chelsea (H)

• Saka is the second-highest-scoring midfielder in FPL with 14 goals and 10 assists. 

• Of all doubling teams, Arsenal are projected to score the most goals.

• Arsenal have also scored the second-most goals this season.

🥉 Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) - West Ham (H), Newcastle United (H)

• Palace have the best fixtures in this double GW.

• Eze is at 49% to score at any time in Double Gameweek 34, and our Fantasy Football Hub has him as the joint second-highest predicted scoring player this GW (11.7 points).

Game Face On

Question: Which club holds the record for the longest run of matches without receiving a red card?

Hint: A Lancashire club that was originally a rugby club.

Scroll below for the answer.

Extra Time

Emi Martinez shushes Lille fans after a penalty… then he’s awarded a second yellow card… but doesn’t get sent off. 

Arsenal’s post-Wenger era in numbers.

Rudiger told Lunin where Kovacic was going to put his penalty.

Luka Modric makes everyone move so he can sit in his favourite seat.

The best Champions League assists of the week.

Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder isn’t happy by the ‘big boys’ scrapping FA Cup replays.

Why Ollie Watkins is a real contender to be Premier League player of the season.

Answer: Burnley

“Liz Hurley, she’s nice. I’d take her to Pizza Express – no posh restaurants. We’d go for a pizza then to watch Grease or something.”

-Phil Neville on his ideal date