Hey fellow managers,

A quick guide for any last-minute transfers ahead of gameweek 18… this time looking at captaincy options and midfielders. 

Let’s get into it.

Captaincy 

This is the first time Haaland does not feature in a captaincy analysis this season so let’s enjoy it whilst it lasts.

We can dive straight into our captaincy analysis by first looking at what the bookies say about this week’s popular choices scoring odds:

Don’t worry if betting odds confuse you, in short, the results above are ranked in order of likelihood to return from most likely up top, to least likely down the bottom. 

The betting stats say Ollie Watkins is the man to go for this week. According to the bookies, Watkins has double the chance of scoring than Son and is two-and-a-half times more likely than Salah to score this weekend.

But, let’s take a closer look at the best captaincy options we have identified.

Ollie Watkins vs Sheffield United (H)

Going into gameweek 18, Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) is looking like the man of the moment with Haaland out.

This season, he has provided goals and assists - 9 and 9, respectfully. 

Plus Aston Villa are on fire with five wins in their last six and on a 15-consecutive top-flight home win streak. 

If you throw into the mix he faces the worst defence in the league, you get a pretty good idea of why so many managers will captain him this weekend… Sheffield United ranks dead last for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season. Yikes.

Son Heung-min vs Everton (H)

In any other gameweek with Haaland unavailable and Salah facing Arsenal, Son Heung-min (£9.8m) would be a shoo-in for the captaincy.

But managers aren’t flocking to Son mindlessly because he faces a tricky Everton side:

• They are fifth best for expected goal conceded (xGC)

• They sit in the top five for expected clean sheets (xCS)

• Are on a four-match run of clean sheets currently 

It’s not all doom and gloom for those who fancy a punt on Son this week…

If Spurs score you would expect Son to be involved. Plus he doesn't need many chances to score. Son is outperforming his xG by more than any player in the league, which suggests he is as clinical as you can get.

Mohamed Salah vs Arsenal (H)

Mohamed Salah (£13.2m), the FPL super asset has the highest xG for a midfielder this season and the most goals.

So you might be thinking surely he is a contender as captain, right?

Well… no.

Arsenal don’t concede goals often. And they rarely concede more than one in a game.

The Gunners have conceded more than one goal only twice at home this season and have kept the joint most clean sheets in the league. The stats say they are performing as they should be with the best xGC in the league. 

So we like Salah in the team until he leaves for AFCON, just not as captain.

Midfielders

Ok, so with Haaland not an option this week, you’ve probably got a lot of mullah lying around.

So, you probably have Salah, Son, Saka, Gordon and Palmer in your team - or something similar.

But who are the fringe players? The differentials. The difference makers… 

Let’s start with Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m). 

He has 10 goals and one assist so far this season, yet only 21.9% of managers are backing him. 

While the Hammers are 12th for xG (25.06), they are sixth for goals scored with 29 this season. 

They face Man United who have the third-worst expected clean sheet away from home, as well as the sixth-worst xG this season. 

So… Bowen has the potential for goals, assists, and maybe even a clean sheet. 

Apart from GW19, West Ham has a good fixture run in their next six. They face United twice, a leaky Brighton side at home, and Sheffield United. 

If that wasn’t enough, David Moyes has been playing Bowen as a striker which is another plus for him.

Then there’s Richarlison (£6.7m). 

Look, there’s no getting away from the fact that Richarlison isn’t consistent. 

But it’s equally hard to ignore the three goals in his last two games - and the fact that Ange is preferring the Brazilian through the middle. 

For any savvy FPL manager, this would scream out of position (OOP). A striker who’s getting a midfielder’s points - don’t mind if I do. 

And with Son going to the Asia Cup after Gameweek 20, Richarlison’s minutes are only going to be more solid.  

Be warned though… Everton has 4 clean sheets in their last 4 games and has the fifth-best expected goals conceded (xGC) away from home this season. 

So, it’s not a given that Richarlison will return, but he’s a good punt.

With a 0.3% FPL ownership, Michael Olise (£5.8m) is the most differential on the list. 

Olise is Palace’s main threat and virtually everything goes through him. Since his first appearance this campaign in Gameweek 13, Olise has had 11 shots and 12 key passes, as well as 40 crosses. Only Dwight McNeil has more. 

Palace faces Brighton next who haven’t kept a clean sheet all season.

With Brighton’s injuries, James Milner has had to start at left-back. We saw Saka having joy down the right against him, and Olise will likely cause Milner similar problems. 

Another promising sign is that top 15k player Spiros Valouxis’ reliable data model has Olise as part of his optimal team for GW18.