The Complete Guide To Winning FPL From A Champion

Who is the best person to take FPL advice from? A goddamn world champion, of course. 

We’re talking about last season’s champ, Ali Jahangirov who won the 2022-23 FPL season. After his win, he wrote a 400-page e-book on all his tips and tricks called "Winning FPL."

We have summarised the key takeaways in this post.

This means you have all the secrets and tactics in one easy-to-digest place... you lucky thing.

To be clear, this is not a sponsored post and we have no affiliation with Ali. 

1/ Don't focus on the current template

You should always be trying to predict the next template. By the time the current template is in full swing, you've missed the boat.

Template = The standard 7-8 players every active/good manager has in their teams.

2/ Do not be anti-template for the sake of it

Choosing players who are hardly owned (“differentials” / “anti-template”) is fine if you have a good reason to take a punt on them. 

But opting to go against the grain for the sake of it, is very damaging most of the time. 

3/ Your formation is more important than a particular player (generally)

Because it costs one move to change a player and two or three moves to change formation, you are naturally more anchored to a formation than a player.  

The best formations = 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 are the usual suspects given the enhanced potential of midfielders and attackers to give high returns.

4/ Use the eye test

The eye test can be effective against a statistical approach as your eyes pick up things that statistics will lag behind.

Stats are important, very important in FPL. They give objective measures for a subjective sport. 

But, there is no substitute for the eye test. 

Ali never transferred a player in without watching them first.

5/ Use the best statistics

Below are the best statistics to refer to when deciding to transfer a player in or out:

1. Expected Goals.

2. Expected Assists.

3. Expected Goal Involvement.

4. Penalty box touches.

5. Shots on goal.

6. Heat map.

7. Exp Clean Sheets (this one is for defenders and goalkeepers only).

6/ Styles make fights

You should analyse each fixture based on the specific strengths and weaknesses of each team.

Who is in form? Are any key players missing? Does one team's style lend itself to the other team? 

AVOID applying blanket labels such as this team is “bad” and this team is “good.”

Example - Haaland was tipped to haul against Chelsea (a) more so than Luton (a) in the 2023-24 season despite Chelsea being the much stronger side overall.

Why? Because of the way Luton plays. Chelsea's style of play under Pochettino suits Haaland more than Luton’s style of play does. 

Think in terms of each team’s relative styles, not in terms of a team's overall strength that season.

7/ Own your decisions 

There are many content creators/FPL analysts available today, so it can be easy to allow your decisions to be dictated to by an FPL manager you respect. 

All creators and content can be a useful point of reference. Ultimately, you will blame yourself for a bad gameweek regardless of who helped you make the decision.

8/ The core of your team should be from the best teams

Your team should have a core of assets from the strongest teams in the league (from a statistical point of view). This means they are likely challenging for the title/have the highest expected goals for the season.

9/ Rules for transfers

1. Treat every transfer as a 4-point hit, even the free ones.

2. You should have a good enough team to roll your free transfer as often as possible.

3. Regularly rolling transfers minimize the chances of hits - roll when you can.

4. Only take transfer hits when it's absolutely necessary. The former FPL champ took just three hits in his first 16 gameweeks as they rarely pay off.

5. Does this transfer make my team better in the long run? You should ask this question every time you make a transfer.

6. Transfers out should happen when the below criteria apply. You shouldn't transfer out a player if none of the following apply:

   1. Losing spot in starting 11.

   2. Less involvement in the game due to tactical changes.

   3. A poor run of form.

   4. Not justifying his costs.

   5. Injury.

   6. Suspension.

10/ Chasing squad value is less important than chasing points

You should not be making rushed transfers to chase player price changes. 

If you are chasing points, your squad value will follow.

Ali did not chase squad value at all in his winning FPL season.

11/ Pick the right captain

The more characteristics an FPL player has of the below criteria, the more likely they should be your captain:

1. A great fixture at home for a high-scoring team against a weak defence.

2. Player in red-hot form.

3. Nailed for 90 mins.

4. On pens/set pieces.

5. Is a midfielder.

6. Talismanic player (everything goes through him).

The former FPL champion averaged 20 points from his captain each gameweek in his winning season. This is very high and tells you the importance of picking the right captain each week. 

In Ali’s winning season, he ranked within the top 100 for captaincy points.

12/ Have the right chip strategy

a. Wildcards:

Wildcards are the most influential FPL chip, so treat them like they are.

If you only need three or four transfers to fix your team, you do not need a wildcard.

Use the first Wildcard as late as possible. And assume your first Wildcard is not available for the first seven gameweeks. 

b. Triple captain:

The same rules apply here as they do for choosing a captain in general. 

Choose the best player against the best fixture but in a double gameweek.

c. Free hit:

Ideally, you play your free hit on a double gameweek where you can't navigate that gameweek with transfers only. You should be aiming for 20-30 points more than if you didn't play the free hit. 

The second option would be to play it where you have a blank gameweek. 

Being patient is your friend here. Wait for the big double gameweeks or a gameweek you struggle to put out a starting 11. 

d. Bench boost:

You should pair the wildcard to maximize usefulness. Play your wildcard then bench boost the following week.

Don't stress about this one as it is more hassle than what it's worth most of the time.

13/ You don’t have to win every gameweek to win FPL

The winner of the 22-23 FPL season had 10 red arrows out of 38 gameweeks.

Relax, don’t panic, and make transfers based on sound logic, not in response to a red arrow.

14/ You can't win the FPL in the first 8-10 gameweeks, but you can lose it

There is no need for you to take huge punts with the very limited information you have at the start of the season. 

Stick with the template (unless you have good reason to deviate) and carefully select differentials in the first part of the season.