The Ultimate Guide to Gameweek 15 - Fantasy Premier League

Howdy fellow FPL managers. 

As you already know, Gameweek 15 has come around quickly. 

It feels like gameweek 14 was only yesterday… oh wait, it was. 

But, don’t sweat it, we have you covered. Here’s the full guide to Fantasy Premier League’s gameweek 15. 

In this blog, we cover:

1. Key transfer targets… who to transfer in and who to get rid of

   1. Defenders

   2. Midfielders

   3. Forwards

2. Comprehensive captaincy pick 

3. Gameweek 15 differential picks

Transfer targets

Defenders

William Saliba vs Luton (A)

Arsenal have the best defence this season. 

They lead in terms of expected goal conceded (xGC) overall, and their away record is second to none with just 5.6 across the 14 gameweeks.

Adding to this, they have the highest clean sheets away from home (4) than any other team in the competition. If that wasn’t enough, they have only conceded three goals away from home, with Brentford and Man United in joint-second with seven goals conceded.

So… an Arsenal defender is a must-have. 

The rest of the Arsenal defence - White, Gabriel, Tomiyasu and Zinchenko - have shown that they’re a rotation risk. Saliba is virtually always nailed on to start and play the full 90 minutes. 

Don’t let gameweek 14’s blank put you off. Saliba should be in any FPL manager’s team who cares about long-term consistent returns. 

Joachim Andersen vs Bournemouth (H)

One of the best centre-backs in the league this season is about to have a fixture swing… but not in his favour. 

Although Palace face Bournemouth in gameweek 15, they have a tough run of fixtures between gameweek 16 - 21.

Eeesh.

Andersen backers… be warned.

Matty Cash vs Man City (H)

Well, Matty Cash didn’t start versus Bournemouth in gameweek 14 after a dip in his form. 

That’s the main reason you should transfer him out as quickly as possible.

But, also, Villa’s fixtures aren’t favourable… so avoiding defensive Villa assets is a good idea. 

Starting with Man City at home, it’s a fixture that hasn’t seen a clean sheet from either side in their last five meetings. Then three days later, they face league leaders Arsenal in what will be an almost impossible clean sheet for Cash - that’s even if he makes the team. 

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah vs Sheffield United (A)

Mo Salah is still leading this season’s Fantasy Premier League with points - with 10 goals and six assists already. 

Liverpool are first in the league for xG (30.04) and joint second in terms of goals scored (32). 

They’re coming up against Sheffield United in gameweek 15. Let’s face it, Sheffield United have been poor this campaign. In the last four meetings in this fixture, Liverpool have won all four, conceding an aggregate of seven. 

After Sheffield United’s 5-0 loss to Burnley, Salah backers will be salivating at his potential returns.

Anthony Gordon vs Everton (A)

At just £6m, you can’t ask for much more value for money than Anthony Gordon. With six goals and five assists, there’s no better budget midfielder in the league right now. 

When it comes to midfielders, he is third - behind Saka and Mbeumo - for points per million. 

But… managers were alarmed to see the yellow flag next to Gordon’s name. His manager Eddie Howe revealed it was because he “was feeling a tightness in his hip.”

Newcastle aren’t in action again until later in the week, so there’s a chance that he’ll have some time to recover.

Bukayo Saka vs Luton (A)

Bukayo Saka is now the third-highest-scoring midfielder in the league, with five goals and seven assists. 

So, a sure pick, right? Not quite…

Luton away is a tricky fixture… the Hatters have only conceded eight goals (fifth) at home this season.

Their low-guard defensive style and smaller pitch can make it difficult for teams to break through. Just ask Son and Salah backers in the equivalent fixtures. 

That said, Saka can produce goals and assists. He is also Arsenal’s first-choice penalty taker which makes him a tempting option. 

And for managers looking for a long-term pick, Arsenal assets could be a good option considering their upcoming fixtures. The Gunners face Aston Villa and Brighton in gameweek 16 and 17 - both of which have leaky defences. This could see Saka returning well in these fixtures. 

Forwards

Darwin Nunez vs Sheffield United (A)

Darwin Nunez has blanked in his last two appearances but keeps getting chances. The stats say he will be in the top three for points over the next four gameweeks.

Despite the stats supporting him as a must-have, the eye test tells you he is still an erratic finisher. Gakpo’s return to fitness could mean his minutes are reduced if he doesn’t start converting his flair and chances to goals. 

A shrewd buy if you can’t go for the nailed-on and cheaper Isak.

Dominic Solanke vs Crystal Palace (A)

Dominic Solanke has three goals in three games, helping him achieve 64 points (fourth for forwards) in this campaign. 

He’s Bournemouth’s main attacking threat which means he’s nailed to start and on penalties. 

His £6.5m price tag makes him one of the best-performing budget forward options. And with Bournemouth’s favourable fixture run - Crystal Palace (A), Man United (A), Luton (H), Nott’m Forest (A) and Fulham (H) - he’s looking like an even better option. 

Solanke is only selected by 5.8% of the managers… probably because Bournemouth are in the bottom eight for expected goals scored. 

But… they haven’t failed to score in their last six Premier League games. That’s quite impressive considering they played three of the top five teams in the league. 

Nicolas Jackson vs Manchester United (A)

Nicolas Jackson is similar to Darwin Nunez. He has good underlying stats but is a poor finisher. In fact, he is expected to be amongst the top five for points in the next four gameweeks if he can keep his place in the starting 11. 

Adding to the dilemma of picking Jackson or not is that he could go from a good to a great FPL asset. 

How? You may ask… well if he starts converting the chances he and Chelsea are creating and stays in the first 11 (despite Nkunku’s introduction to the squad), Chelsea have an amazing fixture run until gameweek 21. 

These are big asks given Jackson has shown no sign of improving his shooting recently but you can’t rule anything out in FPL. 

Captaincy Pick

At Route One, we’ve been using betting odds to help decide our captaincy picks… and it’s been working a treat. 

Here’s a snapshot of the captaincy odds for gameweek 15:

The odds say Haaland is more likely to score… just.

But, let’s take a closer look at the best captaincy options. 

Erling Haaland vs Aston Villa (A)

We get it… Haaland is Haaland.

But his odds of scoring in his next fixture are neck and neck with Salah for the first time this season.

There are a couple of explanations for this:

• He faces a strong Aston Villa defence who are fourth for expected goals at home this season and third for actual goals conceded at home. Villa Park has become a fortress and that is reflected in the odds.

• Rodri is suspended against Aston Villa. This will be a big blow for Manchester City who have struggled when the Spaniard has been unavailable this season.  

He is still the most likely to bag a hat trick but tied with Salah to score anytime.

Mohamed Salah vs Sheffield United (A)

Sheffield United are the weakest home defence in the league this season, ranking lowest for expected goals conceded. 

Making this fixture a perfect pairing for Salah owners as he has the third-highest expected goal involvement away from home in the league.

The stats above combined paint a bleak picture for Sheffield United. But this will be Salah’s third match in a week, making him a potential fatigue or rotation risk come Wednesday night. 

Son Heung-min vs West Ham (H)

Son looks to be another asset ready to return goals and assist given the stats. He is the second-highest goal-scoring midfielder this season, playing against the second-worst defence by expected goals conceded.

But Spurs have not been the same since their first team got crushed against Chelsea in gameweek 13. Three losses in a four for Spurs is poor form, to say the least. However, Son has been consistent throughout with three returns in the same period.

Bukayo Saka vs Luton (A)

Despite Arsenal’s strong form, the underlying stats don’t suggest a goal fest against Luton.

The Hatters sit in the top ten for expected goals at home in the Premier League and Arsenal sit in the bottom ten for expected goals scored away from home.

Luton’s small and awkward pitch, paired with their physical style has posed a big problem for visitors.

That being said, If Arsenal do score, you expect Saka to be involved. 

TL/DR

• Salah’s looking like the best option for captaincy in GW15. 

• Salah faces Sheffield United who have the weakest defence in the league. 

• Haaland and Salah have almost identical goal-scoring odds but Haaland faces a strong Aston Villa side away from home without Rodri or Grealish. 

Differentials 

Then it comes to differential picks.

These are picks that aren’t necessarily the most popular choices. And that means, if you do roll the dice with them and succeed, you could rack up points that many other managers won’t.

There are three differentials that we recommend… 

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.9m) 

With only 9.6% of managers picking Trent Alexander-Arnold, he looks like a sure bet as a differential.

After his 13 pointer vs Fulham - with one goal and one assist - it’s likely that more managers will squeeze him into their squad for gameweek 15. 

But… don’t let that deter you. He’s on fire with three attacking returns in two games, as he often slips into the midfield position. 

Liverpool also has a favourable run of fixtures over the next three gameweeks. 

He’s darn expensive… but so worth it if you have the funds.

Hwang Hee-Chan (£5.6m)

Ok, ok… so you want a differential, but don’t have the funds for someone like Alexander-Arnold?

Look no further, my friend. Hwang Hee-Chan is a humble £5.6m and has three returns in his last five Premier League games. 

Most of Wolves’ attacking play goes through Hee-Chan and with a favourable fixture run upcoming - Burnley, Forest and West Ham - he could prove fruitful. 

One issue… he’s currently on four yellow cards so suspension might be imminent. After gameweek 19, the yellow cards will be wiped.

Other assets are competing for the budget top pick. Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (£5.3m) springs to mind. He has a higher xG than Hee-Chan, probably because he’s on penalties for The Blues. 

However, Palmer is selected by 13%, whereas only 5.6% have backed Hee-Chan… so it depends on how much you’re playing catch up.

Alexander Isak (£7.5m)

Five goals in five games… and only selected by 15% of managers?

Don’t mind if I do… 

Alexander Isak is only beaten by Haaland when it comes to xG per appearance. 

Managers were worried that he was a rotation risk previously. This was fair… but with Newcastle’s depleted squad, he’s nailed on to start for now. 

If Isak continues to outperform his xG, there’s no doubt his ownership will rise… as too will his price, so get in there fast. 

Good luck managers! Don’t forget to subscribe to Route One Soccer’s daily football newsletter here.