The Ultimate Guide to Gameweek 16 - Fantasy Premier League

Howdy fellow FPL managers.

Wow…it has been a busy week of football.

And gameweek 16 feels like it was much too close to gameweek 15.

But don’t worry, we have you covered with a one-stop shop. Here’s the full guide to Fantasy Premier League’s gameweek 16.

Remember the deadline for gameweek 16 is 11:00 AM Saturday 9 December.

In this blog, we cover:

1. Key transfer targets… who to transfer in and who to get rid of

   1. Defenders

   2. Midfielders

   3. Forwards

2. Comprehensive captaincy pick 

Transfer targets

Defenders

Luke Shaw vs Bournemouth (A)

Manchester United are in the bottom five for Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) this season.

So why do we feature a United player here?

Well, because they have kept the joint second-most clean in the league so far.

The difference between their poor xGC and strong clean sheet record is explained by one thing; when it rains at United, it really pours.

United give away lots of chances in games they play poorly in, skewing the xGC stats.

But when United play well, they have a high chance of a clean sheet.

This is not the norm for most teams. Other teams are more consistent than United but struggle to keep clean sheets even when they are playing well.

This means if a United asset is a guaranteed starter and has some attacking upside, they have the potential for big hauls (clean sheet + bonus + attacking return).

And Luke Shaw ticks all those boxes. He is on set pieces even when he starts at centre-back.

Adding to this, United have a decent set of fixtures over the next five games. Including Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Nottingham Forest (A).

Trent Alexander-Arnold vs Crystal Palace (A)

The golden defender of seasons gone past is living up to his reputation with four attacking returns in three games plus two sets of maximum bonus points over the same period.

At £8m he is not cheap but there are not many assets in the game that give you the upside Trent does.

Lots of the best AI models pick him as the go-to man for the next two gameweeks at least.

And you can see why, Trent is now playing more in midfield than ever before and is on most set pieces with Andy Robertson still out injured.

But be warned…

His fixtures get rough after gameweek 17 so if you don’t own him already, you might have missed the boat on this one.

John Stones vs Luton (A)

Despite Manchester City not being at their sharpest this season, they still have the second-most clean sheets and are second for xGC.

And those stats have been without their center-attacking-center-back John Stones who was so important for City last season.

Stones has featured in only five games this season due to injury.

Given the fact that Stones is now returning and City has a juicy set of fixtures coming up, you would only expect their defensive figures to improve… that means more clean sheets.

Apart from the blank in gameweek 18, their fixtures look great.

I know what you’re thinking… what about Pep roulette?

Well, at the risk of sounding stupid (which happens anytime you try and guess what Pep Guardiola will do)… we think John Stones will be immune to Pep’s antics.

After being out for most of the season, it is clear the team hasn’t been the same without him defensively.

And Stones missed the start of the Christmas rush of games so should be fit and able to play without rotation throughout the busy period coming up.

Midfielders

Major announcement for GW16:

Bryan Mbeumo will be out injured for “weeks” according to the manager Thomas Frank. The FPL super asset is a sad loss to us all…

So who should replace him?

Hwang Hee-chan vs Nottingham Forest (H)

Ten attacking returns in 16 games tell you everything you need to know about Hee-chan.

We picked him as our differential option last week and he delivered against Burnely yet again.

Hee-chan looks great on the eye and he has the underlying statistics to make his budget price of £5.6m look ridiculously good.

He faces a Nottingham Forest side who are poor away from home defensively. They sit 16th in the league for xGC away from home. Followed by West Ham away who also sit in the bottom half of the table for xGC.

His only downside is that he is currently on four yellow cards and will be suspended if he picks up a fifth before gameweek 20.

But given his price and stats, the possible suspension is a risk worth taking.

Bruno Fernandes vs Bournemouth (H)

I know what you’re thinking… not another hopeful Manchester United midfield punt.

We have all been burnt by Bruno and Rashford at some point this season but hear us out…

Bruno is fourth for Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) for midfielders this year.

Only beaten by Salah who is expensive, Mbeumo who is injured and Saka who is in over 50% of managers’ teams already.

For £8.3m and a decent set of fixtures coming up including Bournemouth who are bottom three for xGC, Bruno could be a wise punt.

Remember, it wasn’t so long ago that Bruno was a must-have FPL asset.

The stats and eye test say the same thing… United’s finishing has been poor this season. Bruno is creating chances, but no one is finishing them.

But with Erik ten Hag mixing it up in attack and dropping Rashford who has been the worst in the league for chance conversion, it might be Bruno’s time to shine…

Cole Palmer vs Everton (A)

The Chelsea right winger has been impressive so far this season.

Even more impressive is his £5.3m price tag. Making him an easy go-to for Mbuemo owners.

There are a few facts you should know about Palmer before you look elsewhere for a Mbeumo replacement:

• On penalties.

• He has double the Expected Goals (xG) Raheem Sterling does, whilst playing two fewer games in the Premier League this season.

• He sits in the top five for xG in the Premier League this year.

Plus his upcoming fixtures are crazy…

Fixture runs don’t get better than that.

To top all that off he looks like he is going to avoid any rotation for the foreseeable after being already rested against Brighton.

Forwards

Erling Haaland vs Luton (A)

This is David vs Goliath on paper.

The treble winners Manchester City and one of the best strikers in the world travel to the smallest club in the Premier League.

Haaland has the highest xG this season, double that of the player with the second-highest xG this year.

And he is facing a Luton team which sits in the bottom five in the league for xGC at home and Expected Clean Sheets (xCS) at home.

The stats say this is going to be a guaranteed big haul for the Norwegian.

But when you watch teams play at Luton’s home ground they often struggle to find their rhythm.

A small, bobbly pitch with the crowd on top of you in the middle of Bedfordshire is not the perfect setting to play Pep Guardiola’s tiki-taka style football.

That being said, Luton has failed to keep a clean sheet at home this season. And Manchester City have scored the most goals in the league so we expect returns for Haaland this weekend despite his blank against Aston Villa.

Alexander Isak vs Tottenham (A)

Isak has the second-highest xG this season per appearance after Erling Haaland.

Plus, Tottenham is without one-half of their first-choice centre-back pairing. Leading them to be in the bottom five for xGC in the league if you look at their last five games.

So given the stats, this looks like a tasty fixture for those who can get Isak in their team; Isak is talented and gets plenty of chances from a strong Newcastle team.

The only question is whether this packed fixture run of nine games in 30 days going to catch up with the Toon Army.

Darwin Nunez vs Crystal Palace (A)

Darwizzy fever has caught all FPL managers at some point this season.

The exciting, explosive Liverpool striker enchants the FPL community as he looks like he can deliver so much.

But his inconsistent minutes and inability to convert chances make him a frustrating asset to hold.

Darwin is in the top six for xG for forwards this year but has the lowest goals amounts this elite group. Showing his lack of clinicalness in front of goal.

Not helping Darwin’s case, Crystal Palace is a decent defence statistically.

But Roy Hodgson’s men have only kept one clean sheet in their last six games. So Darwin might just be catching Palace at the right time.

Add to the mix Liverpool’s attack is currently flying high at second in the league for xG away from home, this might be Darwin’s shot to deliver on his hype.

Captaincy Pick

At Route One, we’ve been using betting odds to help decide our captaincy picks… and it’s been working a treat. 

Here’s a snapshot of the captaincy odds for gameweek 16:

The odds say Haaland is more likely to score against Luton than any other player in this gameweek… and that is by some distance too.

P.S. We have not shortlisted any Arsenal assets because Aston Villa are one of the best teams in Europe at home this season.

But, let’s take a closer look at the best captaincy options we have identified.

Erling Haaland vs Luton (A)

Echoing what we say about Haaland above - this is a David vs Goliath match up and the odds reflect that.

It is not just the odds that are on Haalands’s side for this game but also Manchester City’s team news: Stones and Rodri are back giving them an almost full-strength squad.

On the back of some bad form and criticism, Pep’s men will be hungry to get back to winning ways.

Given all of that, we think Haaland could return big against Luton.

Mohamed Salah vs Crystal Palace (A)

Salah faces a defensively strong Crystal Palace side. They sit in the top 10 for xGC.

However, Palace are weaker defensively at home than they are away. This will play into the hands of Salah who has the highest xG and highest xGI of any midfielder this season.

Liverpool are in form, they have not lost in their last eight Premier League games and have been creating chances for fun, topping the league table for xG over that period.

Salah has got 16 returns in 15 games this season and we expect that streak to continue…

Son Heung-min vs Newcastle (H)

Son is still showing signs of being captain-worthy after a goal and assist against Manchester City.

But his form has dropped since Spurs suffered injuries and suspensions in gameweek 11. With only two returns since gameweek 11*.

And he faces a side who like to defend. They have the second-strongest defence in the league in terms of xGC.

All in all, we like Son, but not as a captain this week.

*This piece was written before Son played against West Ham in gameweek 15.

Alexander Isak vs Tottenham (A)

You might be thinking we just told you above that this guy is only behind Haaland for xG, so he is a sure contender as captain, right?

Well, no.

Newcastle don’t get as many goals away from home as they do at St James Park. As shown by them sitting in the bottom ten for xG away from home.

Plus Spurs have Cristian Romero returning to the starting 11 this weekend, making the trip away to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all the more difficult.

So we like Isak as a staple upfront but not as captain in this match.

TL/DR

• Haaland has the stats on his side and will be looking to make up for lost time in his search for Premier League goal-scoring records.

• Salah is a good option too but he faces a stronger defensive team than Haaland does.

• Son is a shining light in a struggling Spurs team. But Newcastle’s defence is top-notch.

• Isak is a great option to have in your team but not as a captain this week.

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