Welcome back managers…

There’s lots to talk about ahead of gameweek 17, so let’s get right into it.

Table of contents

• Haaland out long-term… what you can do

  • Worried about bringing him back into your team?

• FWD replacements for Haaland

• Premium attacking options

• Other options to consider

Haaland out long-term? 

FPLFocal revealed something interesting about Haaland’s injury. 

While it was previously unknown how long Erling Haaland (£14m) would be out with injury, FPLFocal found Haaland’s family on FPL… and turns out his dad, brother and girlfriend all sold him. 

Therefore, Haaland will likely miss out on Crystal Palace fixture in gameweek 17. Then, in gameweek 18, Manchester City have a blank fixture week because they’re competing in the Club World Cup.

So, best case, Haaland will be playing again in gameweek 19 against Everton at Goodison Park.

It’s not a great fixture when you look at Everton’s underlying stats…

So… there’s a strong case to get rid of Haaland for the next 4 to 5 gameweeks. 

Worried about getting him back into the team?

Haaland is pricey. £14m pricey. 

So, when you take him out of your squad, there’s always a worry that it’ll be hard to bring him back in - unless you wildcard, of course. 

But, with the African Cup of Nations coming up, key players like Mohamed Salah (£13.2) won’t be available from GW21. 

Sounds like a perfect time to get rid of the Egyptian and bring back the Robot, eh?

FWD replacements for Haaland

Let’s be honest, FWDs haven’t exactly been the bread and butter of this season. 

But, with Haaland out, we must look to the other options.

Let’s look at the FWDs performances so far.

The first graph shows expected goals (xG) compared to goals scored. If the player is above the trend line that means they’re overperforming on their xG. Equally, if they’re below the trend line, that means they’re underperforming on their xG.

Key takeaways: 

• Ollie Watkins (£8.5m) is beginning to level out with his xG. He was previously majorly overperforming. But he offers more than just goals as he leads in assists (9) amongst the FWDs this season. 

• Dominic Solanke (£6.6m) is looking like a cheap beast. He sits perfectly on his xG. 

• Nicolas Jackson (£6.9) is still underperforming on his xG. Chelsea does have a favourable fixture swing but he’s not clinical. 

• Alexander Isak (£7.6m) is bang on his xG but now that Callum Wilson is back, he’s a rotation risk. 

• Darwin Nunez (£7.6m) is severely underperforming on his xG. He’s best to look at when Salah is away at AFCON from GW21 where he will likely be on penalties.

• Julian Alvarez (£6.9m) is performing at his xG - but it’s still a low xG. He will likely play as City’s main striker now that Haaland is out. And will probably be on penalties. 

Now that we’ve looked at the key underlying stats for the FWDs, let’s look at the FWD options in more depth.

Premium Attacking Options

Going into gameweek 17, Ollie Watkins (£8.5m) is looking like the best Haaland replacement. 

This season, he is providing goals and assists - 8 and 9, respectfully. 

Aston Villa are on fire, and their upcoming fixture run looks good. 

They face Brentford next who didn’t look strong in their last fixture without Bryan Mbeumo, who’s currently out of action. 

Sheffield United, Man United and Burnley are solid fixtures for Aston Villa.

The next best option is Dominic Solanke (£6.6m). 

He also has the second-highest xG (7.95) since GW12. 

Only three teams have secured more goals than Bournemouth since GW9, and they’ll likely continue this with Luton at home next and Nottingham Forest in GW18.

Once we approach GW20, Bournemouth’s fixtures aren’t great. But, by then, many managers will likely be using their wildcard as many players will be out due to AFCON. 

So… Solanke’s looking like a great short-term pick. 

Despite their recent form, Manchester City’s Julian Alvarez (£6.9m) might be a good option for managers looking to replace Haaland. 

Now that Haaland is out with an injury, Alvarez will play a more forward role which could get his goal tally up. He’ll probably be on penalties and he already takes corners and freekicks for City. 

While Manchester City are third in the league when it comes to xG, they have scored the most goals (38) this season. 

But… with a blank in gameweek 18, some managers will be put off from bringing the Argentine into their team. 

Other FWD Options

After Richarlison’s (£6.6m) brace against Newcastle, some managers will be tempted to bring the Brazilian in.

It looks like he’s going to play more centrally for Ange’s side now, which will suit him better. 

Some argue that Son Heung-min’s leave for the Asia Cup between 12 January and 10 February is a reason to bring Richarlison in. It’ll mean he’ll probably be on penalties and have more minutes. 

But… it’s way too early to make that call now. And Richarlison hasn’t shown enough to be considered an FPL asset.

Darwin Nunez (£7.6m) is another interesting option. 

Liverpool still leads in terms of xG this season, which makes him a tempting option. 

And with Mohamed Salah’s departure for AFCON more imminent (from GW21), Nunez will likely get more minutes and potentially be on penalties for The Reds. 

Nunez could pay off big. But, he’s not proven to be clinical and is a rotation risk with Cody Gakpo back in action. 

Lastly, we look at Raul Jiménez (£5.3m), who’s by far the cheapest option. 

He’s scored three goals in two games, and Fulham have the highest xG since GW 13. 

Fulham’s fixture run isn’t looking great… with Newcastle, Bournemouth and Arsenal in their next four. 

With a 2.1% ownership of Jiménez, you should only transfer him in if you’re chasing points. 

As managers free up some cash with Haaland, it’s unlikely that many will be desperate for such a cheap option.