Goal recipe

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Front Row Preview

Tottenham vs Arsenal

Sunday 28, 14:00 BST, Sky Sports 

Is the north London derby the all the most heated of derbies? Maybe, maybe not.

Either way, it’s tough to imagine a time that this fixture hasn’t delivered… 

… and now there’s even more on the line:

• Arsenal are going for the title… they can’t drop points (we know that).

• Spurs will want to ruin the Gunners’ parade - all whilst securing European football.

Ok. So let’s get this straight.

We have a top of the table side. Facing their bitter bitter rivals. Who will do anything to stop them from winning. And they’re fighting for European football themselves.

Hmm… sounds like my sort of Sunday afternoon. 

On paper, Arsenal have the upper hand:

• Spurs haven’t kept a clean sheet in five matches.

• Arsenal have the most clean sheets this season…

• … and Arteta’s men have the best away record this campaign. 

But, we’re keeping it light on theory and stats for this one. It’s a derby and - you know what that means - anything can happen.

Styles make fights… and this isn’t a fight you want to miss.

• 💉 Spurs Quick Hit: Spurs have won three of their last four home games against the Gunners in the league. 

• 💉 Arsenal Quick Hit: This Sunday will be the 195th north London derby, with Arsenal leading the bragging rights overall (81-52-61).

Matchday 35 Snapshot

West Ham vs Liverpool (Saturday 27, 12:30 - TNT Sports)

→ West Ham have lost 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool, but both exceptions in this run came at home.

→ Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 3-1 in the Premier League and 5-1 in the EFL Cup this season at Anfield, though they’ve never managed to beat them three times in a single campaign from 10 attempts.

Everton vs Brentford (Saturday 27, 17:30 - Sky Sports)

→ Everton’s first league win this campaign came against Brentford, and they now have the chance to complete just their second-ever league double over the Bees.

→ None of the previous 10 league games between Everton and Brentford at Goodison have finished level, with the Toffees winning seven and losing three. 

Aston Villa vs Chelsea (Saturday 27, 20:00 - TNT Sports)

→ Ollie Watkins has scored 19 Premier League goals this season - the joint-most by an Aston Villa player in a campaign in the competition. He’ll be looking to break Christian Benteke’s previous record in 2012-13.

→ Chelsea have conceded 57 goals in the Premier League this season; their most in a single campaign in the competition.

Link to this weekend’s fixture list here.

Head Start

🤫 Transfer gossip: Crystal Palace will entertain offers for their star forwards Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise - but only if the number is higher than £60 million for each. Last summer Eze caught the attention of Manchester City, while Chelsea unsuccessfully attempted to sign Olise for a fee in the region of £35 million. 

🫡 Another manager in the mix: Former Arsenal and Manchester United striker Robin van Persie is on the verge of becoming the manager of Eredivisie side Heerenveen. They currently sit in mid-table and should Van Persie get the job, it would be his first managerial job in senior football.

😳 John Terry tells all: The Chelsea legend sat down with Simon Jordan for a podcast covering everything from nearly refusing to let a plane take off because of Andre Villas-Boas to being blanked by Rio Ferdinand on a beach in Dubai.

Game In Numbers

A recipe for goals

There are four games to go.

But the Premier League has already reached the record for the most goals scored in a 38-match season.

… and at the current goalscoring rate of 3.26 per match, there will be 1,239 goals by the end of the season - breaking last year’s record by 155. 

So what explains the increase in goals? Well, it’s not because finishing has improved. 

Big Chance conversion has - well - stayed roughly the same as previous seasons… 

(Side note: I mean, I want to talk to the guy who’s calculating Big Chances because only 1 in 5 are scored…) 

And overall conversion hovers around 12% which is only slightly higher than previous seasons. 

Penalty conversions sit just above the 90% mark for the first time. But the number of goals scored by penalties hasn’t changed either.

So, the best explanation is… drum roll please … added time.

Yup. Without added time goals, goals-per-game would come down to 2.84, which would see 2023/24 end in 1,080 goals - four short of last year’s record. 

Sprinkle in attacking styles of play, with high turnovers and fast breaks…

… and there you have it. 

The perfect recipe for more goals.

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Fantasy Premier League

Wildcard Gameweek 35  📊

Gameweek (GW) 34 was one for the ages… producing some of the highest-scoring teams of all time, including multiple 200+ pointers. 

Luckily for those who didn’t Free Hit or missed out on Mateta embodying a prime Cristiano Ronaldo, a new GW is upon us.

Most of us who didn’t Free Hit will have a Wildcard to hand… so here is Fantasy Football Hubs GW 35 AI Team for you…

Which teams double this GW?

• Chelsea vs: Aston Villa (A) and Tottenham (H)

• Tottenham vs: Arsenal (H) and Chelsea (A) 

With that in mind, the AI team loads up on treble Spurs and Chelsea assets for GW35. 

Some notable mentions not included in AI team’s GW 35 draft:

• Mo Salah (£13.6m) - West Ham (A)

I know you’ve just raised an eyebrow… but hear me out. Liverpool has the third-best expected goals (xG) and goals - despite their recent form. And they face a West Ham team who have conceded the most penalties in the league (10) and have a terrible expected goals conceded (xGC) record this season. 

With Salah being on pens and the Egyptian never being out of form for too long, this might be the right time to hold your nerve with him as an asset.

• Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.1m) and Michael Olise (£5.6m) - Fulham (A)

The main weakness for the Cottagers is the volume of big chances they concede – and they allow the most shots from their left. Jean-Philippe Mateta (who has 8 goals in 9 games) leads Palace for Big Chances and Michael Olise should benefit from the zonal weakness.

• Bruno Fernandes (£8.3m) - Burnley (H)

Burnley seems an ideal opposition for Fernandes. He averages the joint-most shots in the box and by far the most Shots on Target for United. Burnley can’t defend set-pieces, which Fernandes takes, so this will be another avenue to bag points. 

• Anthony Gordon (£6.1m) - Sheffield United (H)

Newcastle’s have been generating a high volume of big chances and scoring a lot of goals recently. Their home xG is the second-best in the league. 

Despite Sheffield United’s recent xGC has improving recently they’ve still conceded the most goals and have kept just one clean sheet all season. Plus Gordon hit a 12-pointer in the reverse fixture.

Captaincy for Gameweek 35 🫡 

According to FPL 100 Experts survey these are the most popular captains for GW35:

🥇 78%: Cole Palmer (£6.2m) - Aston Villa (A) and Tottenham (H)

• The Blues’ recent attacking stats are the best in the league as they lead for xG, Big Chances and Goals Scored.

• Palmer scored 12 points in the reverse fixture against Spurs.

🥈 19%: Son Heung-min (£9.8m) - Arsenal (H) and Chelsea (A) 

• Son scored a brace in the reverse fixture against Arsenal but has blanked in his last seven starts against Chelsea.

• He won’t need many chances to score as Son remains the most clinical finisher in the league with the largest discrepancy between xG and goals. 

🥉 2%: Alexander Isak (£8.1m) - Sheffield United (H)

• Isak is on form with seven goals in seven - more than any other player. 

• He scored in a 20-minute cameo against Sheffield United in the reverse fixture.

• But, unlike the other two, he doesn’t have a double GW.

Game Face On

Rank the following players according to the number of red cards they received in the Premier League, highest to lowest.

• Sol Campbell

• Patrick Viera

• Wes Brown

• Fernando Torres

• Rodri

• Roy Keane

Scroll below for the answer.

Extra Time

Jude Bellingham’s 25-year-old model girlfriend revealed.

How Fleetwood Town made it big in the UAE.

David Silva’s last touch for Manchester City was a goal.

Wes Brown says that Sir Alex Ferguson was tactical with his hairdryer treatment.

The time when Johan Cryuff was teaching Stoichkov how to skip.

Weekend podcast: The Overlap on Nottingham Forest’s tweets.

Answer…

• Patrick Viera - 8

• Roy Keane - 7 

• Wes Brown - 5

• Sol Campbell - 4

• Fernando Torres - 3

• Rodri - 1

“It’s no secret I want to go to Liverpool. Now I am waiting for the clubs to reach an agreement. I am confident that will happen.”

-Arne Slot