đŸ„” GW14... your weekend preview

Plus: FPL captaincy pick + Isak vs Darwin?

December 01, 2023

GM football fans. Route One here, the only newsletter that won’t pinch and punch you on the first day of the month


That’s right, the countdown to Christmas is on.

But, before that, we have a few juicy gameweeks in front of us. And the first set of games starts tomorrow
 and we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know.

Today’s briefing is a ~5 min read:

  1. Gameweek 14 preview
 everything you need to know on this weekend’s top fixtures đŸ€©

  2. Extra time: No one loves their partner like Bobby Zamora 😅

  3. Fantasy Premier League: captaincy and Isak vs Darwin
 📊

Morning Brief đŸ—žïž

Teamtalk

If Mo Salah leaves Liverpool next summer this could open the door for The Reds to sign Kylian Mbappe from Paris St-Germain, according to the Teamtalk’s sources.

Football Transfers say there is no indication of interest from Liverpool.

Telegraph

Nottingham Forest manager Steve Cooper has the full support of owner Evangelos Marinakis.

Football Insider

Everton and Crystal Palace are interested in Leicester City’s 22-year-old Irish midfielder Kasey McAteer.

The Guardian

The Premier League has written to the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, rejecting his claim that there was an “abuse of process” in the hearings that led to Everton being docked 10 points for breaching spending rules.

Mail

UEFA have held talks about the Premier League’s less strict interpretation of the handball law in an attempt to award harsh penalties. This follows the penalty awarded to PSG to deny Newcastle victory on Tuesday night.

GAMEWEEK 14 PREVIEW đŸ€©

Look, we don’t want to be “that guy”, but the Route One Goal Forecast thinks there might be a draught this weekend


But, Router, don’t be too down.

There are still some lovely fixtures to look forward to still


Newcastle vs Manchester United

Newcastle’s fixture run isn’t favourable


But, don’t doubt them. Since the 2-1 loss to Liverpool in August, the Magpies have won their past five Premier League home games.

And, quite convincingly
 with an aggregate score of 12-1.

Howe’s lads have a reason to be confident.

But, wait, United aren’t doing too shabby either in the league. 

They’ve won their past three league games by an aggregate score of 5-0.

Their away form has picked up too, as they’ve now won their past four Premier League away games.

United’s issue? They haven’t kept a clean sheet in four consecutive games since August 2017. The last time they did was in March 2013
 and, we all know what’s happened since then


So
 it’ll be a close affair. Newcastle’s defensive strength might help them but United will be hoping to face some tired legs.

Howe’s squad is depleted and the tough mid-week fixture in Paris wouldn’t have helped


  • 💉 Quick hit: Newcastle kept a clean sheet in both Premier League meetings with United last season.

Burnley vs Sheffield United

This is an interesting one


Here are two teams battling for survival. And
 whoever triumphs is (basically) awarded six points.

While Burnley has won four of their past five home league games against Sheffield United, does it mean much if you’re on a seven-game home loss streak?

We’re not convinced


Then again, Sheffield United have lost 25 of their last 30 Premier League away games - with only two wins.

The players mustn’t like to travel much


While both teams haven’t been up to scratch this season, this is perhaps the most important game of the weekend.

Well, that’s for Burnley and Sheff United fans, at least


  • 💉 Quick hit: if Burnley loses to Sheffield United this weekend, they could become the first team in English Football League history to lose their first eight home games in a campaign. Eeek..

Manchester City vs Tottenham

In the last seven league games for this fixture, Tottenham comes out on top.

Yes, that’s right Router.

In seven games, Spurs have won five.

For Pep’s side - often considered ‘fixture proof’ - this is perhaps their own ‘bogey’ fixture.

In fact
 since Pep took charge in 2016, City have lost more Premier League games against Tottenham (6) than they have against any other opponent.

And while Son has been isolated in Spurs’ last three games, his record against City isn’t too bad either. He’s had 10 goal involvements (7 Gs, 3 As) in 17 games in all competitions.

But
 City will have a chip on their shoulder after losing top-spot after a draw to Liverpool last gameweek.

After a tough few weeks as City dropped points to Chelsea and Liverpool, the onus is on Pep’s side to get the win.

  • 💉 Quick hit: Spurs are joint top with Newcastle for the most injuries (11) this season.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱

2000s R&B music video or Bobby Zamora’s Instagram? đŸ˜‚ Bobby loves his Mrs and loves to show her off, even more, in music video style. The video with Alicia Keys Empire State of Mind playing in the background is our favourite.

When Kate Abdo shoots, she scores. Jamie Carragher tries to be cheeky with the CBS host but she doesn’t miss with her reply.

Is this TalkSport call a hoax? After being a Manchester United fan for 45 years, this TalkSport caller claims he is changing allegiance to Spurs.

Evan Ferguson has burst onto the scene this year
 enjoy all his 2023 goals to date. We can see why Liverpool are interested in the youngster.

Tottenham’s injured 11 would beat their current first team. They have an entire first-team 11 out of action for the foreseeable future. Ange hopes that the Christmas fixture schedule doesn’t add to their woes.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE 📊

CAPTAINCY

Our FPL captaincy analysis is back by popular demand.

As you know, we’re experimenting with gambling odds to help decide our captain each gameweek.

Since we started, we’ve climbed the FPL ranks, so we can’t see any reason to stop.

Before we dive straight into the analysis, we have to say this week is a little different to most, as we are spoilt for captaincy options.

R1 has identified at least six serious contenders to take your FPL armband.

We will start by analysing the six options by using their betting odds for scoring this game week: Haaland, Salah, Mbeumo, Watkins, Saka and Son all have favourable fixtures.

If you’re not familiar with odds, that’s not a problem as we have a quick summary for you below:

đŸ„‡ Haaland is the best option for captaincy
 again. The bookies think his chances of netting a goal at any time are double that of Salah’s. His chances for getting a hattrick are also almost double that of Liverpool’s star man.

đŸ„ˆ Runner up is
 Salah. Fulham have the second-worst expected goals conceded away from home meaning Salah is still a strong contender for captain this week.

đŸ„‰Last, but not least, Mbeumo. Brentford faces the lowest-ranked team for expected goals away this season, Luton. This means Brentford’s star man and penalty-taker will have ample opportunities to deliver as a captain this gameweek.

It’s a tough call this game week. Lots of good players have good fixtures. In fact, we could write a piece on why any one of the above options would make a great captain.

So why are the odds so heavily in Haaland’s favour? Well, there are three reasons


  • Spurs are seventh for goals conceded away from home this season. But the first-choice centre-back pairing who gave Spurs a decent away defence, are out. Instead of starting with Romeo and Van der Ven, Spurs are being forced to start with Emerson and Ben Davies as replacements.

  • Manchester City have scored the second most goals per game at home this season. Averaging almost three goals per game at home.

  • Haaland beats Salah for all the goal-scoring statistics this season: expected goals, big chances, shots in the box, shots on target and shots.

ISAK VS DARWIN

If you’re looking for a Haaland striking partner this week, then you’re probably closely monitoring Alexander Isak and Darwin Nunez as options.

And we can see why


Both strikers have great underlying stats and are priced very well. Isak is currently ÂŁ7.4 and Darwin is ÂŁ7.6.

As this week’s choices are hard enough, we have compiled a short pro/con summary for each of these juicy FPL assets:

Isak

✅ Has the second-highest expected goals scored per appearance in the Premier League this season - only bettered by Haaland.

✅ Has the fourth-highest expected goal involvement per appearance this season, which measures both goals and assists.

✅ Callum Wilson is expected back at the end of December. This massively reduces Isak’s chances of rotation.

✅ Isak is currently priced at £7.4 compared to Darwin at £7.6.

❌ Newcastle have nine games in 30 days, including Carabao Cup and Champions League matches.

Darwin

✅ Faces Fulham (H), Sheffield United (A) and Crystal Palace (A) in his next three games. Whereas Isak faces Man Utd (H), Everton (A) and Spurs (A).

✅ Liverpool has the highest expected goals in the league this season compared to Newcastle who sit fourth. This has resulted in Nunez having more shots, big chances and shots in the box compared to Isak.

❌ Darwin is a worse finisher than Isak based on his expected goals to actual goals scored ratio. Isak has an xG of 6.08 and has scored 7 this season in the league. Darwin has an xG of 5.58 and has only scored 4.

MEME 😆

Erik arriving back from Turkey ready for this weekend
.