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🚨 FPL deadline closes today at 6.30 pm BST

Today’s briefing is a ~5 min read:

1. All you need to know about Gameweek 18 🤔

2. Extra time: Roy Hodgson’s enjoying himself too much 😂

3. Full FPL guide for GW18… differential, captaincy and defensive options 🎯 

GAMEWEEK 18 BRIEFING 🤩

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United

Villa are one win away from going top of the table.

Who would have thought we would be writing that at the beginning of the season?

Unai Emery’s men can even be top on Christmas day if Villa secures the win and Liverpool vs Arsenal ends in a draw.

His side is going into their next fixture confident they can take the top spot too.

Why? Because the stats scream Villa win:

• Villa have won 15 consecutive top-flight home games

• They have won each of their last five matches against promoted opposition

Plus Sheffield United’s form is bleak:

• They’ve not won away from home this season

• They’ve won one point from their last eight games

• And only have two wins in their last 33 away fixtures in the top-flight

So, this will be as good of an opportunity as any for Villa to grab the top spot… even if it is only for two days.

• 💉 Quick hit: Aston Villa are unbeaten in the last 14 home league matches they have played against Sheffield United.

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LIVERPOOL vs ARSENAL

Easily the biggest match of the week.

The battle of first and second place.

They have only lost three games between them so far this season and have the best defensive records in the competition.

Statistically speaking, there’s little to separate the two. 

Arsenal’s expected goals (xG) and expected goals conceded (xGC) are only slightly worse away from home.

But… Liverpool have fared well in this fixture over the past decade. They’re unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games against Arsenal at home - including seven victories.

Liverpool fans will be happy to have their main man Mohamed Salah before he goes to AFCON (from Gameweek 21).

They won’t have the Egyptian king when they face each other in five gameweeks.

So… this will be the Red’s best opportunity to regain the top spot for the rest of the year.

• 💉 Quick hit: Trent Alexander-Arnold has six Premier League assists against Arsenal, more than he does against any other opponent.

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TOTTENHAM vs EVERTON

It’s Spurs’ chance to get into the top four again…

But only because Man City aren’t playing this gameweek because of the FIFA Club World Cup.

Spurs fans will be hopeful when finding out that they have only lost one of their last 21 Premier League matches against Everton.

That said… Everton have been on fire since their 10-point deduction.

4 clean sheets in their last 4 games.

Yep… that’s right. And that’s including a 2-0 versus Chelsea and a 3-0 versus Newcastle - both teams that are in the top four for xG.

No wonder they have the fifth-best expected goals conceded (xGC) away from home this season.

So… Tottenham won’t breeze this fixture.

But it’ll be a big challenge for the Toffees, but a great stage to make a statement, eh?

• 💉 Quick hit: If Richarlison scores against his former club, he will become the 13th different player to score against Everton having played for them previously.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Michael Owen needs to be stopped, he can’t stop throwing things he shouldn’t. From throwing apples into his mum’s bin to darts at people's legs, his stories just keep on giving. 🤣

Can you guess which team this parrot supports? The little birdie can’t stop singing “Bowen’s on Fire” and shouting “Irons!”. He’s developed a proper East London twang too.

At 74, Roy Hodgson is still teaching players how to open up defences with his passing… check this out. 🎯

O NA NA NA, O NA NA NA… Amadou Onana’s penalty for Everton on Tuesday should only be watched with this commentary in the background. It makes Onana’s miss funnier and less sad…

John Terry reveals Eden Hazard refused to talk tactics with Chelsea teammates. He didn’t even know who he was playing against most of the time. All Hazard asked for was to get the ball so he could “score one or two goals and win”.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE 📊

The answer to your question is yes, yes we did.

We had Solanke in our team.

And, in case you don’t know, FPL ruled that Solanke would not get his points after the Bournemouth vs Luton game was abandoned.

You know what, let’s move on to Gameweek 18 as fast as possible… starting with captaincy.

CAPTAINCY 🫡

Loyal Routers will know that we’ve been exclusively using betting odds as our main metric. Here they are…

For GW18, the bookies think that Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) is looking like the man of the moment with Haaland out.

He faces Sheffield United, who rank dead last for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season. Yikes.

Ok, what about Son Heung-min (£9.8m)?

Well, Spurs face Everton, who:

• Are fifth best for xGC

• Sit in the top five for expected clean sheets (xCS)

• Are on a four-match run of clean sheets

But, Son is outperforming his xG by more than any player in the league, which suggests he is as clinical as you can get.

Hmmm… Mohamed Salah (£13.2m)?

He does have the highest xG for a midfielder this season and the most goals.

There’s one problem. Arsenal.

You know? The side with the best xGC in the league.

So… probably one to miss this week.

DIFFERENTIAL 🤔

With a 0.3% FPL ownership, Michael Olise (£5.8m) is our differential pick this week.

Olise is Palace’s main threat and virtually everything goes through him.

Since his first appearance this campaign in Gameweek 13, Olise has had 11 shots and 12 key passes, as well as 40 crosses. Only Dwight McNeil has more. 

Palace faces Brighton next who haven’t kept a clean sheet all season.

With Brighton’s injuries, James Milner has had to start at left-back. We saw Saka having joy down the right against him, and Olise will likely cause Milner similar problems.

SPLASH OUT ON DEFENDERS? 💰

You’ve sold Haaland and money isn’t an issue.

Great.

But what do you do with all that ssshommney? And yes that’s exactly what it’s called when you’ve got 9 million perched up and ready to use.

Well… when do you ever get to have so much fun with defenders?

Let’s look at your premium options.

Ahhh Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.2m).

Aka the big chance creator. Aka the bonus point magnet. Aka second-most assists against Arsenal in Prem history.

You get the point.

TAA has 1.13 big chance involvements (compared to Trippier’s 0.43) which suggests he’s creating more quality chances as the premium options. 

And in the last four games, he racked up 8 bonus points - and that’s all while “blanking” in two of those fixtures.

But, Liverpool’s fixture run isn’t ideal. They face Arsenal twice in the next six games and face Newcastle, Bournemouth and Chelsea in the same run which aren’t exactly clean-sheet territories. 

The other thing to consider is whether Liverpool makes it to the Carabao Cup final which would mean they would have a blank in GW26.

But, equally, this might initiate a double gameweek for the Reds before or after the final - in which case, TAA would be the best defensive option.

Should you stick or twist with Kieran Trippier (£6.9m)?

Well… he still ranks first for expected goal involvements (xGI) among defenders this season at 5.6. 

Like TAA, he doesn’t have the best fixture run…

And don’t be fooled by that Luton (A) fixture… the Hatters have scored against Machester City, Arsenal and Liverpool at home the season.

Then there’s Pedro Porro (£5.5m).

The attacking full-back has two four assists this season, all of which have come within his last six games. 

Think of him as a cheaper option to Trippier, as he sits second to the Newcastle man when it comes to expected assists and xGI, but he’s exceeded his tally by one in both categories - 4 compared to 3.

Spurs’ next four or five are ideal for an attacking full-back to rack up points. 

Everton, who they face next, will be the toughest fixture of the lot given they’re fifth best for expected goals conceded away from home. 

But, Brighton hasn’t had a clean sheet this season so GW19 could prove fruitful for Porro owners. 

MEME 😆