Hello fellow managers,

Gameweek 20 is approaching fast.

Here’s what we have in store for you today:

• Premium Gameweek 20 FWD options

• Differential Gameweek 20 FWD options

There are question marks around Erling Haaland (£13.9m) and whether he will start for Manchester City against Sheffield United. 

To help with this, we’ve created an “Insider Trading” Twitter bot which updates for real player FPL transfers and includes Haaland’s father, brother, mate and brother’s girlfriend. This should give us an indication as to whether they think the Robot will be back for Pep.

You can find the AI bot here @FPL_Insider_R1 on X.

But, rumours suggest that Haaland might not be ready for GW20. Via @MCFCTone on X.

So, assuming that Haaland is out, who are the next best options for GW20?

Let’s get into it.  

Premium FWD options

Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) has been a staple for many managers this season. He’s the joint-highest-scoring (112) FWD this season with 9 goals and 9 assists. 

He is owned by more than 50% of teams. This means if he isn’t in your squad and he hauls, you should expect a big red arrow.

The Englishman has blanked in four of his last five last gameweeks, which will have managers questioning whether they should take a punt on another FWD.

And the game against Man United showed that a lot of Villa’s attacking opportunities are not going through Watkins.

But, Villa’s next six fixtures are decent. 

If Villa pick up form again, there are at least four or five fixtures that Watkins could see joy in.

Dominic Solanke (£7m) scored again versus Fulham. 

That’s now five goals in his last three, taking his season total to 12 goals and 1 assist. 

On paper, Bournemouth has a few tricky games coming up with Spurs (A), Liverpool (H) and West Ham (A).

But, when we look at the underlying stats, he still doesn’t look like a bad option. Spurs have the second-worst expected goals conceded (xGC) in the league at home, as well as the worst expected clean sheet (xCS). 

Sounds like return potential for Bournemouth’s main man. 

Then there’s Liverpool (H) which will no doubt be a tough fixture. But, remember that the Reds will be missing out on Mohamed Salah due to the Africa Cup of Nations. This, plus their defensive injuries of late, could make Liverpool a slightly weaker side.

We saw this when Klopp’s side travelled to Burnley in GW19. If Burnley was more clinical, they could’ve caused the league leaders some problems. 

Lastly, assuming that Haaland is still absent, Julian Alvarez (£6.8m) could get the nod from managers in Gameweek 20. 

He has gone under the radar but has 12 returns this year and is the fourth-highest-scoring forward in the game so far. 

Alvarez seems to be immune to Pep roulette as he has started all 17 of Manchester City’s games so far which is more than he started the whole of last season (13). 

City’s fixtures are looking tempting, as they face quite a leaky defence from GW20. 

In Gameweek 20, City face Sheffield United at home which is the best fixture possible. Sheffield United are the second-worst team in the league in terms of expected clean sheets (xCS) away from home and have not secured a clean sheet on the road. They’re also joint-worst for goals conceded this season (23). 

Today’s game versus Everton will be a good indicator of Alvarez’s potential returns when he plays through the middle. The Toffees sit in the top six for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season. 

The ‘eye test’ will be essential today.

Differential FWD options 

Let’s start with Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8M).

Everton face Wolves away from home in gameweek 20. Wolves sit in the bottom eight for expected goals conceded (xGC), whilst Everton sit in the top 10 for expected goals scored (xG). 

DCL’s recent return to full fitness means his minutes have been increasing, five starts in the last five games suggest he is now one of the first names on the team sheet under Sean Dyche.

What is more encouraging than his minutes is his underlying stats…

DCL has the highest xG of all forwards if you look at the last five gameweeks (2.93).

In the same period, he failed to score but got an assist against Chelsea at home, which paints a picture of a striker playing games, getting chances but not finishing them. 

If his minutes and underlying stats continue you expect the goals and points to follow shortly. Remember, this is a striker with two seasons in the Premier League with 10+ goals priced at £5.8m!!

Gabriel Jesus (£8m) is another option that many managers are considering. He has three goals and two assists this season.

He’s appealing because Arsenal has a good run in the next eight games. 

In Gameweek 20, they face Fulham away. Fulham has the second-worst expected clean sheets in the Premier League this season.

They’ve also conceded the fourth-most goals this season (32).

In contrast, Arsenal are in the top five for goals scored per game this season, averaging two goals per game, so it’s likely they will bag some goals against their London rivals. 

The question is whether Jesus can get involved in the action…

But with his low 5.5% ownership, if you do take a punt on Jesus and he returns, it will go a long way to make sure you get that green arrow.

Lastly, the biggest risk of them all is Christopher Nkunku (£7.4m).

With only one Premier League appearance and one goal at the time of writing this, it’s almost impossible to tell whether Nkunku will be worth the investment.

But, if he does prove to be a good asset, then Chelsea’s fixture run over the next four is almost too good to ignore.

Last season, in the German Bundesliga, Nkunku played 25 league matches. He scored 16 goals and assisted 6.

As Chelsea is second in the league for Big Chances Created (33) at home, if Nkunku can be more clinical than the likes of Nicolas Jackson, then he might be a popular option for managers.

But… as Pochettino eases Nkunku into the league, his minutes aren’t nailed.

It’s a big risk. But, you know what they say, with big risk comes big reward…