Gm football fans. Route One here, the football newsletter that always takes their shoes off at the door.

Today’s briefing is a ~4 min read:

1. The Premier League table never lies is a myth… here’s why 🤥

2. Premier League or The Godfather? ☠️

3. FPL: West Ham’s fixtures are looking tasty 😋

Psst… if you’re enjoying R1, share us with friends, family and colleagues. One rule… no sharing with ex-gfs or ex-bfs. We don’t wana be the reason you get back together. 😆

Morning Brief 🗞️

THE PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE LIES 🤥

“The Premier League table never lies” is a myth.

Newcastle’s 2011/12 season is a case in point.

They finished that season fifth, then narrowly avoided relegation in the following season.

But, their performance didn’t change over the two seasons.

How is this possible? Let’s take a look…

Assessing Newcastle’s over-performance:

1/ Expected Points (xP)

• Expected points are the best indicator of a team’s final league position.

• The data shows that their expected points did not change over the two seasons.

• This suggests two things: (1) Newcastle outperformed their xPs in 2011-12, and (2) the same level of performance, can mean a different finishing position.

2/ Goal Difference

• Goal difference is another reliable statistic to show a team’s strength.

• When Newcastle finished fifth in the league, they had a +5 goal difference. The teams that finished above them had at least a +20 goal difference.

3/ Shot Differential

• Shot differential tells us how likely a team is to score versus how likely they are to concede.

• Newcastle had a negative total shot differential when they finished fifth. They were far from shoulder-to-shoulder with their top-table counterparts.

• Put another way, Newcastle were clinical, and their opponents were wasteful.

4/ Unsustainable Conversion Rates

• We’ve established that Newcastle were unusually clinical in the 11/12 season given their shot differential.

• Papiss Cisse had a conversion rate of 33% that season. This is a freak result and supports the idea they were unusually clinical.

• In the same season, Messi had a conversion rate of 20%. The same season Messi scored 73 goals in 60 games.

"This is football, anything can happen” is a much truer statement than “The Premier League table never lies.”

Randomness is part of the theatre of football, and Newcastle managed to play a lead role for a whole season.

PREMIER LEAGUE OR THE GODFATHER? ☠️

Since when did football become a mob movie?

First, we hear the devasting news that Luis Diaz’s parents were kidnapped in Colombia.

Now, John Obi Mikel has opened up about the time his dad was kidnapped.

Just hours before Mikel was to face Argentina at the World Cup in 2018, he received a call from his brother that his dad had been kidnapped in Nigeria.

Not the sort of news you want to hear before you face a prime Lionel Messi.

But Mikel played anyway, without telling his teammates the news.

Chelsea’s former owner Roman Abramovich offered to send people…

“Mikel, would you like me to send people over? I know if I send people over, I can get your dad out.”

“How are you going to do that, boss?”

“Don’t worry about that. If you want that option, I can do it.”

It’s like it was straight out of The Godfather…

FPL: WEST HAM FIXTURES ⚒️

West Ham have a favourable set of fixtures coming up.

Should managers target West Ham defender or midfielder assets?

Answer: midfielders… but deffo not defenders.

• West Ham are bottom three for expected clean sheets this season overall.

• The Hammers are fourth bottom for expected goals conceded.

On the flip side… their attacking stats are promising.

• They sit 11th for expected goals this season, ahead of Man United and Wolves.

• West Ham sit 9th for goals scored which is above Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton.

Goal Threats -Expected Goals per 90 - xG/90

1. Bowen - 0.44 xG/90

2. Soucek - 0.32 xG/90

3. Kudus - 0.24 xG/90

(BTW… Our differential pick is Kudus. He has played 90 minutes back-to-back in the Premier League for the first time.)

Assist Potential - Expected Assists per 90 - xA/90

1. Ward-Prowse - 0.28 xA/90

2. Paqueta - 0.17 xA/90

3. Bowen/Kudus - 0.12 xA/90

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Things go from bad to worse for Nuno Espirito Santo. He has been sacked by Saudi Arabian club Al Ittihad. Karim Benzema and N’Golo Kante will soon have another coach.

Darren Bent suggests a tennis-like challenging system could improve VAR. Each team’s captain or manager would have the power to make VAR review a decision. We think this is a great idea. Can you imagine the drama when a team runs out of challenges?

The scouse accent doesn't lend itself to delicate French pronunciation. As Olivier Giroud found out when Jamie Carragher tried to pronounce his name.

Sean Dyche asks Dele Alli for feedback on his tactics. According to Dyche, Dele Alli understands his tactics because they are similar to Pochettino’s. Could we see Dele make a comeback under Dyche?

From the Vault: Pundits laugh at Robbie Savage for claiming he was world-class. Michael Owen, Steve McManaman and Ian Wright give Savage a grilling after claiming he was world-class “sometimes.”

MEME 😂