Did Leicester City Deserve To Win The Premier League in 2016?

In May 2016, Leicester City did the impossible by winning the Premier League.

It was akin to a fairytale. 

The bookmakers ruled them out from the start of the season. The odds of Leicester winning the league that year were 5,000 to 1. 

Yet, against all odds, they won the league 10 points clear of second-place Tottenham Hotspurs. 

But, how did Leicester win the league: was it luck or skill?

Let’s get into it…

Against all odds

In our analysis of Newcastle’s 2011/12, we showed that the Premier League table can lie. 

This means that a team's finishing position in the league doesn’t accurately reflect how well they played. 

There’s a strong argument that the same might be true for Leicester’s league title.

The year before Leicester won the league, they sat at the bottom of the Premier League with 10 points after 18 months. They hadn’t won in the league in 13 games and had lost six in a row. 

In the competition’s history, only two sides have ever managed to survive after being in last place at Christmas. 

This meant that the Foxes finished 14th place in the league just one year before they won the title.

Statistically speaking, it’s unheard of that a team that finished so low in one year can then win the league in the next. Even if there was a huge cash injection - which wasn’t the case for Leicester - one season wouldn’t allow enough time to formulate a Premier League-winning side. That’s in most cases, anyway.

It becomes even more shocking when we explore Leicester’s wage bill.

Oxera used a statistical model to show that Leicester’s wage spend meant they had an even lesser chance of winning the league than the bookies gave credit. 

The regression model combined each club’s wage spend and where the club finished in the previous season. The model showed that Leicester was expected to win the league with a probability of 0.004%. That’s the equivalent of 20,000 to 1. 

So, from the outset, Leicester weren’t supposed to win the league. 

But that was obvious.

What about when we look at their performance ex post facto? 

Well, interestingly, Leciester’s 2015/16 performance wasn’t spotless. 

The table shows compares Lecicester’s winning season to the average winners over a 10-year period.

The data shows that Leicester didn’t match the template for a Premier League-winning side.

Their average possession (42%) was the lowest of any Premier League champion recorded in history. And Leicester’s sub-par passing accuracy average (70%) wasn’t a sign of a team that managed 

That season, Leicester didn’t even outperform their own expected goals (xG). 

They also won more games by a 1-goal margin than the average champion. And won fewer games by a 2+ goal margin than the average - and by a significant margin. 

When analysing Leicester's overall performance, they didn’t have the characteristics of a Premier League-winning side. 

So, what can explain Leicester’s success? 

There are four key areas to examine:

• High-risk, high-reward recruitment strategy.

• An unyielding focus on defensive strength.

• Outstanding break-up play.

• Playing to their strengths.

High-risk, high-reward recruitment

Leicester relied on low-cost, yet highly effective, recruitment. 

Their strategy was simple but difficult to implement: select world-class talent from lesser-known clubs and leagues. Steve Walsh, the club’s then-head of recruitment, played a vital role in implementing this high-risk, high-reward recruitment.

Riyad Mahrez was considered too frail by other clubs. Yet, he was crowned PFA Player of the Year in 2016. 

N’Golo Kante signed from Ligue-2 French side Caen. Kante went on to win the Premier League and Champions League with Chelsea. He also won the 2018 World Cup with France.

Jamie Vardy was the first £1m signing from a non-league club, Fleetwood Town. He became England’s Footballer of the Year in 2016 and scored 24 goals for Leicester that season. 

In short, virtually every recruitment choice by Walsh that season was proven right.

But he tried a similar tactic at Everton under Ronald Koeman a few seasons later that didn’t work. 

So, it’s true that Walsh deserves credit for his ability to recruit untapped world-class talent. 

But, it’s virtually impossible to replicate how well this strategy worked in such a short space of time. It was nothing short of a miracle. 

Defensive strength

Leicester’s defensive record was beyond impressive. 

Their defensive discipline and composure showed in the number of defensive errors - only 10 all season and just one led to a goal. In the same season, West Ham and Aston Villa conceded 13 goals from defensive miscues. 

Conceding 36 goals in a season isn’t anything to write home about in today’s game. But, at the time, it was one off the league-low shared by Manchester United and Tottenham. 

Additionally, not only did goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel achieve 15 clean sheets, his goals prevented (3.69) ranked fourth among those with at least 20 appearances. 

And it wasn’t like Leicester weren’t on the receiving end of some big chances. They were tied for fifth-most shots inside the penalty area (317 shots). 

But, as Opta Analyst reveals, only 31.5% of these shots were on target. This was because Leicester blocked the third-most shots in the division (166) and blocked the most crosses (169). 

Leicester’s low-block defensive tactic was made impenetrable by an unyielding defensive focus. 

Break-up play

Defensive strength doesn’t derive solely from the back-four or goalkeeper. Leicester’s defensive prowess thrived in their midfield too.

Kante led the division in interceptions (156) and tackles (175). No one in the competition since has matched those stats in a single season. 

He wasn’t alone. Danny Drinkwater led the team in ball recoveries. The duo were second and third in that category that season, and Arsenal was the only other team with two players in the top 15. 

Both players contributed hugely to Leicester's average of 23 tackles per game and 21.8 interceptions. Both stats are a Premier League high. 

Playing to the team’s strengths

Regaining possession was just one part of the puzzle. Completing the sequence of play was another hurdle that Leicester’s attack mastered this season.

That season, Leicester’s centre-backs Huth and Morgan had the least passes per game. Often, a team’s centre-backs have the most passes per game as the attacking sequence starts from the defence. 

But, Leicester’s manager Claude Ranieri knew his team’s limitations. He didn’t trust his defence’s ability to play intricate passes. Instead, he instructed his players to stick to direct passing after regaining possession.

Even goalkeeper Schmeichel racked up the most long-ball kicks that season, a tactic to avoid passing the ball along the back four. It also meant that Leicester conceded the most transitions. But, as they led the league in ball recoveries, they could afford the high number of transitions. 

Leicester’s relied on darting runs from their attackers through opposition lines. 

Tactically speaking, this went against the grain as Premier League sides were encouraged to focus on possession-based play. 

But, by creating counterattacking scenarios in every phase of attacking play, Ranieri was playing to his team’s strengths. As a result, the Foxes picked up 5 goals directly from counterattacks in the league and created the most chances from transitions. 

Jamie Vardy’s pace tied everything together and meant that Leicester’s countering style could work. Vardy achieved 24 goals and broke the record for consecutive scoring appearances (11), previously held by Rudd van Nistelrooy’s 10-gamer in August 2003.

Vardy and Mahrez provided 58 goal involvements that season. They’re the only teammates to finish first and second in Premier League goal involvements since Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard in 2009-10. 

Like their recruitment strategy, a high-risk high-reward tactical strategy paid off. 

Verdict

Leicester City’s 2015/16 squad didn’t fit the mould of a Premier League-winning side. 

The Foxes lacked many of the common traits that we’d expect to see. It was ultimately their high-risk, high-reward strategy that ended up paying off.

Or, in other words, while Leicester lacked in some areas, they dramatically overachieved in other statistics. 

For teams looking to replicate Leicester’s success, it’d be almost impossible. But, there are a few key takeaways to consider: 

• Recruit untapped talent from lesser-known leagues and teams.

• Focus on defensive attributes as a priority. 

• Go against the mould tactically. Focus on tactics that suit your team’s strengths.