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- đȘ The Man Behind Liverpool's Magic...
đȘ The Man Behind Liverpool's Magic...
Plus: How to pick the best defenders in FPL
Route One
October 17, 2023
Gm football fans. Route One here.
Todayâs briefing is a ~3 min read:
The man behind Liverpoolâs magic đȘ
Fantasy Premier League: The best way to choose a defender? đ€
Extra-time: the time that Odergaard trained with his âdreamâ Premier League club đ€
Psst.. if youâre loving Route One, share this link or forward todayâs email to a friend, colleague, ex-lover, postman, cat, acquaintance⊠heck, anyone who loves the game as much as you do. Itâs the only way we grow. : )
đïž Morning Brief
Manchester United shares slumped in premarket trading on Monday, following the news that the Qatari group was stepping back from a potential takeover. Shares traded more than 10% lower and dipped to $17.37 a share, a fall from more than $20 a share on Friday. YikesâŠ
Sir Jim Ratcliffeâs Ineos group claims to expand the capacity of Old Trafford to 90,000 if they successfully purchase 25% of the club. There is still ambiguity around how they will fund this infrastructure project.
Fichajes (Spain)
Arsenal are interested in a January swoop for in-form Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins.
Newcastle has their eyes on Arsenal midfielder Emile Smith-Rowe in the upcoming January transfer window.
Manchester City could earn more than ÂŁ8m through a sell-on clause if Liverpool sign Bayern Munich winger Leroy Sane as part of their Mo Salah replacement plan.
Scotland qualify for Euro 2024 in Germany after Spain beat Norway. The Scots have now reached back-to-back European Championships under Clarke.
Black Red Magic đȘ
Michael Edwards is a wizard. A magical character who worked in the shadows at Liverpool as Sporting Director.
In case you didnât know, a sporting director is in charge of transfers. They also oversee all sporting activities.
Just a quick refresherâŠ
Edwards used a crystal ball for revolutionary signings at Liverpool - including Salah, Robertson, and van Dijk.
Following his departure from Liverpool in Oct 2022, Liverpool needed a new wizard to predict the future and help rebuild their squad.
Edwards was replaced by his understudy, Julian Ward. But he left to take a career break.
Ward wasnât a wizard. But a decent bloke, apparently.
But thenâŠ
* poof * đȘ âŠin comes Jorg Schmadtke.
Liverpoolâs new sporting director.
Schmadtke has worked for teams in Germany. This makes him more of a connected gangster than it does a dark arts magician.
Both work, I guess.
He has signed a one-season deal.
Deals for Szoboszlai, Endo, and Gravenberch meant Schmadtke's first window was impressive. He is now regularly seen in the directorâs box at Anfield.
But, the rest of the season wonât be easy.
Joel Matip is entering his last season, key players are maturing beyond their prime, and Salah is being targeted by Saudi.
Who will become Liverpoolâs next sorcerer? Pulling out well-priced talent from foreign league hats is the trick Liverpoolâs board demands.
Will it be Schmadtke? Well, Januaryâs window will be telling.
Watch this space, Rooters.
FPL: How To Choose Defenders⊠đ«
Ok, weâre about to get technical. Strap in and hold tight. đ€
How should you make decisions on which defenders to include in your FPL squad?
Weâre about to blow your mind⊠hopefully.
Weâve run the numbers and hereâs the short answer: defensive stats > attacking stats when choosing a defender.
Clean sheets are more important than goals and assists.
Odd, right?
Youâre always told that you should look for defenders who are going to achieve attacking returns. But, the data says otherwise.
Donât believe us? Hereâs the statsâŠ
Letâs dive into the 20/21 seasonâŠ
This graph shows each defenderâs Total Points against G+As and Clean Sheets.
What do we see? A clear correlation between Clean Sheets and Total Points. And weaker link exists between G+As and Total Points.
But, hereâs the technical part. When looking at the R-squared (which, put simply, shows us how much G+A or Clean Sheets explains Total Points) itâs even more compelling.
For the 20/21 season, the R-squared is:
Clean Sheets + Total Points = 0.92. This means that CS can explain 92% of a defenderâs total points for that season - thatâs very high!
G+A + Total Points = 0.63. This means only 63% can be explained by attacking returns.
You didnât think we just analysed one season, did you?
The same trend goes for every season, including the current oneâŠ
Take a look. Hereâs 21/22âŠ
R-squared =
Clean Sheets + Total Points = 0.93
G+A + Total Points = 0.66
Donât get us started on 22/23âŠ
R-squared =
Clean Sheets + Total Points = 0.93
G+A + Total Points = 0.53
Oh, and guess what, the current season tooâŠ
Ok, ok, enough graphsâŠ
TL/DRâŠ
Defensive stats > attacking stats when picking a defender.
Clean sheets are more important for defenders than attacking returns.
First, analyse defender options by looking at xGC, big chances conceded and opposition touches in the penalty box. Then filter again for attacking potential.
Players like Trippier are ideal. This is because Newcastle have great underlying defensive stats first. Then Trippier has great attacking potential.
EXTRA-TIME â±ïž
Honesty is the best policy when it comes to management. Non-league boss Marc White has gone viral after assessing his âf**king s**tâ players lost in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round - his words, not ours!
TAA finding out he will become Liverpoolâs vice-captain. Itâs a lovely moment between the player and the manager. Iâm not crying, you are. We donât do emotion here at R1, but this caught us off guard.
Odegaard once trained with âdream clubâ Liverpool. Before making his move to Real Madrid, the 15-year-old trained with Liverpool for 3 days. Liverpool tried to woo the wonder kid to his âdream clubâ. They did this by allowing him to train amongst the likes of Gerrard and Coutinho at Melwood.
TĂŒrkiye celebrates Euro qualification with a team dance. Lots of beards and screaming but itâs a feel-good scene⊠something we all need a lot of on a Tuesday.
đ MEME
