Matchday 34 preview

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Front-row Preview

Everton vs Liverpool

Tonight - 20:00 BST - Sky Sports

Ladies and gents, we’re still in Matchday 34 - and it doesn’t end until Thursday night. 

There are four matches tonight… but Everton vs Liverpool is the game with the most on the line.

Liverpool will need to narrow the gap after Arsenal’s 5-0 win over Chelsea and Everton are fighting to distance themselves from relegation.

In recent times, the Merseyside derby has been a one-sided affair… 

• Liverpool have won four of the last five and kept a clean sheet in the last four.

• Everton have only won one of their last 26 Premier League games in this fixture.

But, the Toffees have shown they can perform with their backs against the wall. After more points were deducted, Sean Dyche’s men have won back-to-back home league matches.

(Side note: yes, they were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea. But we’re trying to make it interesting… so play along).

Either way, don’t expect any niceties between these rivals. 

This fixture has seen more red cards than any other fixture in the competition (23) - Everton receiving 16 of them. 

• Everton Quick-Hit 💉: Everton are on their longest run without a goal against Liverpool since 1976. 

• Liverpool Quick-Hit 💉: No Liverpool manager has ever won 10 Merseyside derby games - Jurgen Klopp currently has 9 wins in 16 league games. 

Arsenal 5 - 0 Chelsea

Yup. That happened.

Apart from Ben White bagging a brace, there wasn’t much to be surprised about.

It was a tale of two completely different sides…

• Arsenal recorded their biggest-ever victory against Chelsea across all competitions.

• Chelsea have conceded 57 goals in the league this season, their most ever in a single campaign.

Arsenal face Spurs on Sunday, and they’ll feel confident… the Gunner’s win over Chelsea was the third time they’ve beaten a London side by 5+ goals this season.

Plus…

Nottingham Forest’s request for VAR audio has been accepted, but it won’t be made public (More)

UEFA has agreed to increase the size of squads to 26 players - instead of 23 - for the upcoming European Championship (More)

Liverpool are considering Feyenoord coach Arne Slot as the man to replace Jurgen Klopp (More)

Manchester United are in discussions with Disney to strike a multi-million-dollar deal to create documentaries about the club (More)

Matchday 34 Stats Zone

Manchester United vs Sheffield United 

→ Sheffield United caused an upset at Old Trafford in their 2-1 win in the last away league game on Man United’s turf.

→ But Sheffield United have conceded a league-high 88 goals and their average of 2.67 goals conceded per game is the highest ever seen by a side in a single Premier League season.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

→ Crystal Palace are winless in their last five Premier League meetings with Newcastle, failing to score in each of the last four.

→ Newcastle will be looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the second time this season.

Wolves vs Bournemouth

→ The reverse fixture this season saw Wolves come from behind to win 2-1. Only Brentford have dropped more points than Bournemouth from winning positions.

→ Dominic Solanke has been in stellar form this season with 18 goals which are equally split between home and away fixtures.

For full Matchday 34 results click here and for the remaining fixtures click here.

Game In Numbers

Expect the X-pected

The year 2012 was one to remember:

• Gangnam Style took over the world.

• The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises squared off at the box office.

• London’s Summer Olympics proved a great success.

But, there was something more important that happened. It was the year that Sam Green wrote the article that introduced a new stat into the footballing world: expected goals (xG).

It was the first time we could objectively know what makes a good chance as opposed to an average one…

… rather than relying on the length and anger of your old man’s ‘oooo’ or ‘ahhh’ as the ball skims past the wrong side of the post.

Since then, xG has evolved into different forms… xA, xGC, xCS, xThis, xThat… 

And, this week, Gary Lineker and Alan Shearer questioned the importance of these stats - arguing that they don’t offer much that the eye can’t see.

But, just how reliable are these stats at predicting outcomes? Well, spoiler alert, pretty accurate… 

The graph below shows expected goals compared to actual goals this season for each team. And the xG is almost identical - except for Everton.

It’s hard to imagine a human accurately predicting each team’s goals for the season based on years and years of historical data.

Then there’s expected points (xP) at the start of the season compared to actual points.

Again, there are some outliers, but the computers are great at predicting outcomes.

Route One take: While Lineker and Shearer are right in saying that stats can’t replace the ‘eye test’, xG (and all the other x’s) do a great job of confirming or dispelling beliefs about team and player performance.

Off The Pitch

🍺 Belgian man whose body makes its own alcohol cleared of drunk driving (More)

🎬 Has Ryan Reynolds cast Wrexham striker Ollie Palmer in the new Marvel film? (More)

🕵️‍♀️ Two men have been charged with spying for China under the Official Secrets Act (More)

🎾 Novak Djokovic has given his strongest indication that he will coach himself in the latter stages of his career (More)

😷 Anne Hathaway says she had to kiss 10 men during a ‘gross’ chemistry audition (More)

🚽 Ceremony held for opening new San Francisco public restroom that almost cost $1.7m (More)

Graph Of The Day

Opta’s stats on teams’ schedules are in… Premier League clubs do face tougher schedules than their European counterparts.

• PSG have had almost 22 hours more than Liverpool between each of their games.

• West Ham and Aston Villa also have a lower time to recover than Barcelona.

• Liverpool have faced the worst scheduling this season with only 116 hours between each game.

Getting rid of the League Cup is off the cards… but, Opta says, it could be possible to reduce the size of the Premier League by two teams - taking off four fixtures for each side.

Maybe Klopp did have a point earlier this season…

Extra Time

Aston Villa’s new crest has been leaked by the club’s betting partner.

Neal Maupay has his say on Anthony’s celebration against Coventry. 

Unofficial (aka fake) VAR audio released for Nottingham Forest. 

21 years ago this week, Ronaldo Nazario’s hat trick for Real Madrid against Manchester United.

Kaká to Hernán Crespo is a goal to remember.

Liverpool are set to swap Nike for Adidas in a new kit supply deal.

Game Face On

Question: Which side received the most yellow cards in a single Premier League season? 

Hint: It was the 2021/22 season.

Scroll below for the answer.

On Today

FOOTBALL

Premier League: Everton vs Liverpool (20:00 BST, Sky Sports)

Ligue 1: Lorient vs PSG (18:00 BST, TNT Sports 2)

Ligue 1: Monaco vs Lille (18:00 BST, TNT Sports 3)

Ligue 1: Marseille vs Nice (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 2)

Coppa Italia: Atlanta vs Fiorentina (20:00 BST, Premier Sports)

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer: Leeds United - 101 yellow cards

“If God had wanted us to play football in the sky, he’d have put grass up there.”

-Brian Clough