šŸ¤© Matchweek 22 Preview

Plus: FPL captaincy picks and AI model

GM football fans. Route One here, reminding you that the FPL deadline is at 6:00 PM BST tonight. šŸšØ 

Todayā€™s briefing is a ~4 min read:

  1. All you need to know about Matchweek 22 šŸ¤©

  2. Fantasy Premier Leagueā€¦ decisions, decisions, decisions šŸŽÆ

  3. Extra time: Jordan Pickford calls a fan a parrot šŸ¦œ

Morning Brief šŸ—žļø

Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk admits he faces an uncertain future in the wake of Jurgen Kloppā€™s announcement, according to Liverpool Echo.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has no plans to leave his managerial post, despite reports in Sapin linking him to the Barcelona job.

Thereā€™s a ā€œgrowing momentumā€ that a bid will be launched by Spurs for Chelseaā€™s skipper Connor Gallagher, via TeamTalk.

Six Glazer siblings stand to make Ā£100 million and Ā£150 million from the sale of a 25% stake in Manchester United reports The Times.

MATCHDAY 22 PREVIEW šŸ¤©

šŸ¦ Aston Villa vs Newcastle šŸ¦

Hmmm.

On paper, things donā€™t look great for Newcastleā€¦

  • Theyā€™ve lost their last 4 league games.

  • Villa have gone unbeaten in 6 home games against the Magpiesā€¦ with 4 clean sheets.

  • Villa have won 16 of their last 17 home league games.

Thereā€™s also an added incentive for Ollie Watkins who is looking to become the third Aston Villa player to score 50 goals in the Premier Leagueā€¦ 

Can you guess the other two? Reply to this email if you think you know.

Anyway, letā€™s be honest, playing at Villa Park wonā€™t be a walk in the ā€” you get the jist.

But with returning players like Jacob Murphy and Tino Livramento, we may see a rejuvenated Newcastle side.

  • šŸ’‰ Quick hit: If Alexander Isak scores in another loss, thatā€™d be the first time a player has scored in four consecutive games and lost all four games.

šŸ“ Tottenham vs Brentford šŸ

Once upon a time, Brentfordā€™s derby form was immaculate: 14 consecutive wins against London sides is an incredible feat.

But theyā€™ve lost their last two outings - Arsenal (1-0) and Crystal Palace (3-1).

Itā€™s a similar story for Spurs.

Angeā€™s side have lost two of their last London league derbiesā€¦ and on home soil.

To win today, Spurs will rely onā€¦

  • Richarlisonā€™s purple patch at homeā€¦ with 10 goal involvements in 10 home games.

  • Maddisonā€™s return from injuryā€¦ but he may not start.

  • Kulusevskiā€™s right-wing reckoningā€¦ where heā€™s created the most chances following carries in the league (19).

Spurs are in good form at home, so itā€™ll take some Toney magic to cause an upset for the home crowd.

  • šŸ’‰ Quick hit: Tottenham have lost just one of the last nine league games against Brentford, though that defeat did come in this exact fixture last season.

šŸ‰ Liverpool vs Chelsea šŸ¦

Do you want the good news or the bad news?

Weā€™ll start with the good newsā€¦ this game could see a lot of goals from both sides.

The bad newsā€¦ each of the last seven meetings between these sides in all comps have finished level.

No one wants to see a draw.

Both sides have a few things in common going into this fixtureā€¦

  • Both are on three consecutive league wins.

  • Both have players returning from injury.

  • Both will be on a high following FA Cup wins.

Little will separate the twoā€¦ and itā€™s a tough one to call.

  • šŸ’‰ Quick hit: Chelsea plays well against the Premier Leagueā€™s best, winning more games against teams starting the day top of the table than any other club in the competitionā€™s history (18).

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE šŸ“Š

DECISIONS, DECISIONS, DECISIONSā€¦ šŸ«”

The usual captaincy suspects are out of action again this week.

Well, Erling Haaland (Ā£13.9) might come back into the City squad, but his minutes are - um - not nailed.

So, amongst all the decisions to make in GW22, we must look elsewhere for the big points.

Luckily we have lots of alternativesā€¦

  • JoĆ£o Pedro (Ā£5.4m) v Luton (A)

  • Eberechi Eze (Ā£6.0m) v Sheffield United (H)

  • Richarlison (Ā£7.0m) v Brentford (H)

  • Phil Foden (Ā£8.0m) v Burnley (H)

  • Jarrod Bowen (Ā£8.1m) v Bournemouth (H)

  • Bukaya Saka (Ā£9.0) v Nottā€™m Forest (A)

  • Kevin De Bruyne (Ā£10.6m) v Burnley (H)

Letā€™s take a look at some of the better picksā€¦

1/ Phil Foden (Ā£8.0m) v Burnley (H)

Foden is looking nailed, despite Pepā€™s flip-flop selection approach.

He has five consecutive 90-minute games and four attacking returns in the same period.

Add to that Cityā€™s incredible record against Burnleyā€¦

ā€¦ it becomes clear why he will be the most selected captain this week.

2/ Kevin De Bruyne (Ā£10.6m) v Burnley (H)

He only has 44 Premier League minutes under his belt this season so expect to be in the minority if you opt for him as your captain.

Butā€¦ he bagged a goal and assist in his 21 minutes against Newcastle in GW 21, so thereā€™s big upside potential to picking the Belgian as your captain.

3/ Jarrod Bowen (Ā£8.1m) v Bournemouth (H)

Bowen has the highest expected goals (xG) of all available midfielders in GW22 and he faces Bournemouth who are in the bottom three for goals conceded away this season.

Make of that what you willā€¦

AI PICKED WILDCARD TEAM FOR GW 22 šŸ§ 

We like featuring AI models here at R1 because they are as unbiased as youā€™re going to get in FPL.

The AI model we feature below is designed by Spiro Valouxis which finished first out of 25,000 teams which started their season at GW 24 last season.

Spiro has kindly laid out for us:

  • The optimal GW22 wildcard team as suggested by his AI model and;

  • The optimal transfer plan from GW22 to GW28.

Thank YOU, Spiro.

Credit: @SpiroValouxis

Ivan Toney (Ā£8.0m) looks great given he is nailed for 90mins, on penalties and free-kicks, doubles in GW25 and doesnā€™t blank in GW26.

Rememberā€¦ only use AI models to check your thinking, not as a definitive guide.

Why do we say that? Because AI models change their ā€œmindā€ as fast as Gary Nevilleā€™s ooooooooooo in any - and we mean, any - game.

Good luck, Router! (not that youā€™ll need it)

EXTRA-TIME ā±ļø

Top-corner volleys are always great to watchā€¦ and even better when theyā€™re in slo-mo with a ton of backspin.

The time Alex Ferguson left out Alan Hansen from the Scottish World Cup squad in 1986. Despite Hansen winning the double with Liverpool that year.

Two legends of the game just hanging out. Weā€™re not sure what Diego Maradona and Jose Mourinho were talking aboutā€¦ but it has all the personality youā€™d expect from the pair.

MEME šŸ˜†

ROUTER REVIEW OF THE DAY šŸ¤—

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