🤩 Matchweek 30 preview

FPL Captaincy | City vs Arsenal | Stats breakdown

March 29, 2024

GM football fans. Route One here, we’re like an Easter egg hunt. Fun, quick and full of surprises - without all the chocolate but just as sweet.

All feedback will be read at [email protected].

Front Row Preview

GOAL

Manchester City vs Arsenal

Sunday 31 March @ 16:30 - Sky Sports 

It’s matchday 30 and we’re ex-ci-ted. Let’s look at the big fixture this weekend (spoiler: it’s going to be a biggun)...

Here’s one for you: what do Luke Skywalker, Harry Potter and Mikel Arteta have in common?

Yup, that’s right. They were once students who eventually became ‘the man.’

OK. Maybe it’s a bit early to say that about Arteta but… Arsenal sit above his former mentor Pep Guardiola’s side. And on Sunday, he’ll be desperate to keep things that way.

The problem? Well, there are a few…

  • City have won 12 of the last 13 league games against Arsenal.

  • City are unbeaten in their last 38 home games.

  • KDB has scored more goals against Arsenal (8) than any other opponent.

Tough.

Interestingly, The Telegraph report that this fixture won’t be the artistic football masterpiece you might expect. 

Instead, they think it will be decided with long balls! 

Why? Well, last season, City couldn’t break through Arsenal’s man-to-man defensive lineup. So, Pep instructed his team to go long more than they did against any other side in the league. 

We don’t think Pep is going to do that again becuase as we reported yesterday, Arsenal are by far the best team in the league at winning second balls this season.

We have a feeling this match is gonna be a game of chess, WWE and football wrapped into one.

  • 💉 City Quick Hit: Rodri has gone a whole year without losing a game for club or country. 

  • 💉 Arsenal Quick Hit: If Kai Havertz scores, he will become the first Arsenal player to score for five matches in a row in their debut season since Thierry Henry netted in seven straight games in the 1990-00 campaign.

Matchday 30 Snapshot

Newcastle vs West Ham (Saturday 30, 12:30 - TNT Sports)

→ Newcastle have fared much better at St James’ Park than on the road, having picked up 73% of their points at home.

→ Newcastle have scored in every home game this season, with West Ham on the third-longest run without a clean sheet in the Premier League.

→ However, West Ham will be riding the high from the 5-0 mauling against Freiburg in the Europa League.

Brentford vs Manchester United (Saturday 30, 20:00 - Sky Sports)

→ Brentford’s form has been questionable. They’ve lost more league game Premier League games (17) than any team apart from the bottom two sides. 

→ Between the 16th and 30th minute, United have faced the most shots in the league this season (92) - and, interestingly, Brentford have scored most of their goals in this 15-minute block.

→ Man United will be reliant on Bruno Fernandes who has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (82).

Liverpool vs Brighton (Saturday 31, 14:00 - Sky Sports)

→ Mohamed Salah is averaging a goal or assist every 76 minutes in the Premier League this season… so that’ll be Brighton’s man to stop.

→ Adding to this, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 26 Premier League home games, winning 20 of them.

→ But Brighton have impressively avoided a defeat on three straight trips to Anfield.

Link to this weekend’s fixture list here.

Do you like the (new) weekend preview?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Head Start

Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali, who is serving a 10-month suspension from Italian authorities, has been charged by the FA for alleged breaches of betting rules (More)

Mauricio Pochettino has suggested that Cole Palmer was left ‘disappointed’ at England snub (More)

England’s Nike away kit outsells home strip for the first ever after row over the change to the St George’s Cross (More)

Former Nottingham Forest and Liverpool defender and double European Cup winner Larry Lloyd dies aged 75 (More)

Leicester Womens have sacked manager Willie Kirk after an investigation into his alleged relationship with a player (More)

Off The Pitch

📫 Secret papers reveal that the Post Office spent £100 million fighting sub-postmasters in court despite knowing its defence was untrue (More)

😄 Lego has asked Murrieta Police Department to stop using their block heads in mug shots (More)

🤦🏻 North London-based dad ordered to pay £19,800 in damages after trying to retrieve his son’s football (More)

👨🏻‍⚖️ Crypto-exchange CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, responsible for one of the U.S’s largest financial frauds in history has been sentenced to 25 years in prison (More)

👩🏾‍🍳 The UK has its first black female Michelin-starred chef (More)

Fantasy Premier League

Captaincy for Gameweek 30 🫡

After the lowest-scoring Gameweek (GW) ever, GW 30 couldn’t come sooner… and the big question on manager's minds today is who to captain:

  • Salah (H) vs Brighton

  • Son (H) vs Luton 

It’s the hardest captaincy choice of the season, so we’ve summarised everything you need to know:

We’ll provide an alternative captain choice at the bottom for those living life on the edge too.

→ Goal-scoring odds

The bookie's odds say that Son has a higher chance of scoring against Luton than Salah does against Brighton.

Credit: u/JoachimG1

→ Head-to-head

Salah wins on head-to-head stats. Unlike Son, he’ll also play in his preferred position.

Credit: Fantasy Football Hub

  • Son is expected to start on the wing against Luton. He has 7 goal contributions in 10 from this position (good, but not as good as Salah).

  • Salah has 24 attacking returns in 22 league appearances for Liverpool.

  • Salah has the highest expected goal involvement for a midfielder.

→ Fixture Comparison

It’s a tale of two clubs…

  • Salah faces Brighton who are strong defensively away from home.

  • Son faces Luton who have the weakest away defensive record.

Luton has the worst expected goals conceded record away from home in the league whereas Brighton has the third best. 

Adding to this, Rob Edwards confirmed that Luton has a terrible injury problem… his coaching staff needed to make up numbers in training.

Route One’s verdict: We’ve punted on Salah. Why? The stats are so close, we are letting vibes guide us. Brighton concedes most of their goals from their left side (where Salah plays). Brighton also plays a higher line which suits the Egyptian King more than Luton’s low block will suit Son… but this one is almost too close to call.

→ Wildcard captaincy option: Cole Palmer

He faces Burnley at Stamford Bridge (H) and…

  • Was rested for England over the international break.

  • Has the second most double-digit returns this season.

  • Burnley has been in the bottom 3 or 4 teams for expected goals conceded all seasons.

FPL Bonus Points 📊

Game Face On

Question: In Arsenal and City’s first Premier League clash in September 1992, which Arsenal player scored the only goal of the game to win 1-0?

Hint: He scored 185 goals for Arsenal.

Scroll below for the answer.

Extra Time

Grab some popcorn over the weekend… we have 3 minutes of Andrea Pirlo at Euro 2012 to watch. 

Karius’ fiance is struggling with the lack of direct flights from Newcastle to Milan. So, she’s urged the German goalkeeper to leave for Italy.

Kevin-Prince Boateng explains how he became the most hated man in Germany. Never has one podcast appearance had so many highlights.

Answer: Ian Wright

“Football is like chess, but without dice.”

-Lukas Podolski