How many points would Lionel Messi get in Fantasy Premier League?

A stats analysis to see if Messi really could do it on a rainy night in Stoke

Yes, you’re right…

Lionel Messi has never played for an English side before.

So… he’s never been a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) asset.

And many fans often criticise Messi for never making the move to England, suggesting he avoided the Premier League because of its physical intensity.

At 5ft 7, would Messi be able to adapt to the league’s demands?

Former player and commentator Andy Gray famously summarised this assertion among doubters with a question: “Can he do it on a rainy night in Stoke?”.

And maybe Gray was right… perhaps Messi is only limited to his technical ability, speed, strength, balance, footballing IQ and tenacity.

But, we thought it’d be best to put this to the test.

Analysis

So, if Messi’s eight Ballon d’Ors haven’t convinced you that he’d fair perfectly fine in the Premier League, maybe his stats against English opposition will.

Throughout his career, Messi has racked up close to an entire season of matches against English opposition.

These games have primarily been played in the Champions League but there have been a couple of games played elsewhere, like the Club World Cup.

To be precise, he has played 36 games against English teams over the past 20 years. So, just shy of a whole Premier League season.

We’ve analysed each game that Messi has played against Premier League sides and allocated him points based on FPL’s official scoring system.

We’ve accounted for the different positions that Messi played so that he gained points based on whether he would be classified as a MID or FWD.

The below table shows Messi’s FPL points in each game.

Lionel Messi's fantasy premier league points in theory

G = goals, A = assists, CS = clean sheets, Bonus = Bonus FPL points

Lionel Messi's fantasy premier league points in theory

In theory, as the majority of games are played in the Champions League, Messi is playing against the best English teams.

It’s fair to say that he would have scored more points in a season that wasn’t exclusively played against these teams.

But, despite the difficulty bias in the data, Messi’s stats are unbelievable…

According to our analysis, Messi achieved 271 Total Points in 36 games.

If he were to play the full 38-game season, we estimate that he would’ve scored around 286 total points.

Let’s break down his stats even more:

  • Points per appearance - 7.5

  • Goals - 27

  • Assists - 7

That’s an exceptional season for any player, let alone a player that’s only up against the toughest opposition.

That’s not all, though.

27 goals in 36 games means Messi would have won the Golden Boot in four of the last five seasons.

It also means he would have won the Golden Boot 20 times in the last 30 Premier League seasons.

In terms of FPL, only two FPL assets would have outscored Messi over the past 20 years over a 38-game season.

As the image below shows, only Luis Suarez (2013-14) and Mohamed Salah (2017-18) beat Messi’s score.

A screenshot of the best scores in Fantasy Premier League history

Verdict

So… it’s quite impressive stuff.

Messi had the third-best FPL season, despite only having played against the best teams in the top-flight English league.

If we were to play against Luton or Sheffield United, who knows the sort of numbers he would be racking up.

So…

Would Messi have been the best-ever FPL asset? Probably.

Can he do it on a rainy night in Stoke? Technically we don’t know… but yes.

Is he the GOAT? Well, that’s not for us to decide.

The only thing we can’t figure out is how FPL would have priced him.