GM football fans. Route One here, the football newsletter that always takes their shoes off at the door.

Today’s briefing is a ~3 min read:

1. What would Lionel Messi’s Fantasy Premier League season look like? 🤔

2. Christmas is the time for Premier League madness… 🎅

3. Extra time: Champions League knock-out round draw 🎰

Morning Brief 🗞️

LIONEL MESSI IN FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE? 🧐

So… could he really do it on a rainy night in Stoke?

Well, Router, we’ve finally got the answer.

And while the little magician might have never played in the Premier League before, he has racked up close to an entire season of matches against English opposition.

This means that we can analyse just how well Messi would perform in FPL.

Let’s get into it…

Analysis

With Champions Leagues and Club World Cups, Messi has played 36 games against English teams over the past 20 years.

So… just shy of a whole Premier League season.

Using the data from these games, we’ve allocated Messi points in each game based on FPL’s official scoring system.

The below tables show Messi’s FPL points in each game.

Here are the games before 2013…

And the games after 2013…

In theory, as most games were played in the Champions League, Messi faced only the best English teams.

But, despite the difficulty bias in the data, Messi’s stats are unbelievable…

According to our analysis, Messi would have achieved 271 FP points in 36 games.

If he were to play the full 38-game season, we estimate that he would’ve scored around 286 total points.

Let’s break down his stats even more:

• Points per appearance - 7.5

• Goals - 27

• Assists - 7

That’s an exceptional season for any player, let alone a player that’s only up against the toughest opposition.

That’s not all, though.

27 goals in 36 games means Messi would have won the Golden Boot in four of the last five Premier League seasons.

It also means he would have won the Golden Boot 20 times in the last 30 seasons.

In terms of FPL, only two assets would have outscored Messi over the past 20 years over a 38-game season.

Luis Suarez in 2013-14 and Mohamed Salah in 2017-18 beat Messi’s score.

Verdict

So… it’s quite impressive stuff.

Messi had the third-best FPL season, despite only having played against the best teams in the top-flight English league.

If we were to play against Luton or Sheffield United, who knows the sort of numbers he would be racking up.

So…

Would Messi have been the best-ever FPL asset? Probably.

Can he do it on a rainy night in Stoke? Technically we don’t know… but yes.

Is he the GOAT? Well, that’s not for us to decide.

The only thing we can’t figure out is how FPL would have priced him. 🤔

100 BEST IN 2023 💯

It’s nearly time for the Guardian’s top 100 male footballers.

Back in 2012, The Guardian had 11 judges to decide the list. But, this year, they have Philipp Lahm, Karen Carney and Walter Casagrande among 215 other judges taking part.

Last year, the top five players were:

1. Lionel Messi

2. Kylian Mbappé

3. Karim Benzema

4. Erling Haaland

5. Luka Modric

Today, they announce the numbers 100-71 for 2023.

To be honest, that doesn’t excite us… but we’ll let you know once they get close to the top spot.

XMAS PREM TREND 🎅

Aston Villa are immense at the moment.

With their game against Sheffield United at home on Friday, it could see Emery’s side reach the number one spot.

But… don’t be too surprised.

This isn’t the first time an underdog has been at the top spot at Christmas.

In the inaugural 1992/93 Premiership season, Norwich started like a house on fire.

Like Villa, they beat just about everyone in the run-up to Christmas… and they spent 129 days atop the table and led the pack as late as March 19.

Here’s what the table looked like…

Leeds United were the reigning champions, yet they found themselves in 14th.

Unfortunately for Norwich City, after a losing streak in the second half of the season, they finished third - with a remarkable negative goal difference.

Aside from Man City and Liverpool, Leicester City (2015/16) and Chelsea (2014/15) are the two table-topping Christmas day sides who capitalised on their lead and went on to lift the title the following summer in the recent past.

So, if Villa reach the top stop, there’s no pressure, right?

Right?

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Jose Mourinho doesn’t hold back in his appearance on the Obi One Podcast. When asked if Arsenal would win the league this season, he simply replies "…Nah".

The Champions League knockout draw took place yesterday. Arsenal have been drawn against Porto, and Manchester City will face FC Copenhagen in the first round.

Jurgen Klopp did not have to do this to Joel Matip… but it shows how close the German manager is with his players.

It’s common for players to have rituals when they come on the pitch. We’ve all seen when players run on with the right foot first or the usual prayer. But we’ve never seen the rubbing the grass on the face ritual…

André Schürrle’s brace against Stoke in 2013 was immense. He had the chance to score almost the perfect hat-trick of goals outside the box.

MEME 😆