New favourites revealed

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Head Start

Spain and Argentina are now favourites for Euros and Copa America

Spain have now taken the top spot as the favourite to win Euro 2024 for the first time.

La Roja started the tournament as fourth favourites with a 9.6% chance of winning but now Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ predicts they have a 30.38% chance.

And it’s hard to argue with this… 

… Spain have won all five of their matches at Euro 2024 - they are only the third nation to do this in history, after France in 1984 and Italy in 2020, both of whom won those respective tournaments.

And Spain have by far the highest non-penalty xG/90 with 1.93, compared to Netherland’s 1.62, France’s 1.37 and England’s 0.76.

So where does this leave France, England and the Netherlands? 

Despite still not scoring a goal in open play, France narrowly miss out on the top spot with a 29.9% chance of winning the tournament. 

But… the other side of the bracket, England and the Netherlands are given much lower odds. England’s chance of winning this year’s Euros is at 22.8% after spending the majority of the tournament as favourites…

… and the Netherlands have the lowest at 16.8%.

Then there’s the Copa America. 

While the jury is still out at the Euros, there is more certainty around the favourites at the South American tournament…

… as Argentina are given a 52% chance of winning the tournament after their penalty shoot-out win over Ecuador (and Lionel Messi’s penenka penalty miss).

After Uruguay knocked out nine-time champions Brazil (highlights) on Saturday, they take second place.

(It probably has something to do with Marco Bielsa’s men only conceding one goal in seven games).

First-timers Canada face Argentina in the semi-final on Tuesday are understandably given a slim chance at just 4%.

No doubt you’ll be feeling the football blues today… but there’s lots on for the rest of the week.

Plus…

A full list of Premier League clubs’ summer 2024 pre-season fixtures (More)

Chelsea hire a law firm to investigate after a female employee made an allegation of sexual harassment (More)

Manchester United reach “broad agreement” to sign Bologna striker Joshua Zirkzee (More)

Former Liverpool midfielder Thiago Alcantara announces his retirement from football at age 33 (More)

Bayern Munich confirm the signing of Michael Olise from Crystal Palace for £60 million (More)

Poll Time

Euro 2024 Stats Zone

QF: Spain 2 - 1 Germany

→ Spain have reached their sixth-ever semi-final at the Euros, with only Germany (8) now participating in more in the tournament’s history.

→ Spain’s Lamine Yamal, aged just 16, became the first-ever teenager to record three assists at a single edition of the Euros.

QF: Portugal 0-0 France (3-5 Pens)

→ Excluding penalties and own goals, France are yet to score in their five games at Euro 2024. No side has ever gone longer without such a goal in the tournament’s history.

→ There were 35 shots in this match between Portugal (15) and France (20), the most in a game that finished 0-0 at the Euros. 

QF: England 1 - 1 Switzerland (5-3 Pens)

→ England have won just four penalty shootouts in their history but two of them have come against Switzerland.

→ Switzerland have now been eliminated in all five of their major tournament quarter-final appearances.

QF: Netherlands 2 - 1 Turkey

→ Netherlands have reached the semi-final of the Euros for the first time since 2004.

→ Turkey were shown 19 yellow cards and one red at Euro 2024 – the joint-most cards issued to a team at a single edition of the Euros.

European Football

UEFA confirms blind trust is only short-term solution for United and City

Manchester City and Manchester United can play in the Champions League next season after conflicts over multi-club ownership with Girona and Nice were resolved. 

We reported last week that City and United would be able to play alongside sister clubs as long as they transferred some shares to a blind trust… 

… and that’s still very much the case.

But, there’s a twist. Actually, two. 

It has now been confirmed that this ‘loophole’ is only a short-term solution as UEFA works on finding a better solution for future tournaments.

In fact, the blind trust shares will be transferred back to the original owners in July 2025… 

… which would then be considered a breach of UEFA Multi-club Ownership rules.

Here’s twist #2. 

To prove their independence to their respective clubs, City Football Group and Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s INEOS Group have agreed not to transfer players "permanently or on loan, either directly or indirectly from July 2024 to September 2025".

In practice, this means the likes of Nice centre-back Todibo will not be allowed to join United next season.

Apparently there are “additional guarantees” of their independence but they have not yet been reported publicly. 

We’re sensing a PR disaster brewing. And all we know for sure is that… UEFA will be crossing all 10 fingers hoping that the sister clubs don’t meet in the Champions League this season.

Off The Pitch

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🕊️ Oscar-winning ‘Titanic’ and ‘Avatar’ producer Jon Landau dies aged 63 (More)

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Photo of the Day

No-look penalty. Ivan Toney practices his no-look technique from 13 yards out, rather than 12, so that “the goal looks bigger” when he’s in a high-pressure situation. The 28-year-old stepped up to score the fourth penalty in England’s 5-3 win on penalties against Switzerland. Toney has scored 30 out of the 32 penalties taken outside of shootouts, giving him a 93.75% success rate.

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Around The Football World

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 American Adam Webb set to complete the purchase of St Johnstone from long-term owner Geoff Brown (More)

🇪🇬 Egypt international Ahmed Refaar has died aged 31, following a heart attack he had in March (More)

🇧🇷 Thiago Almada has completed his MLS-record transfer from Atlanta United to Brazilian side Botafago, with a deal reaching up to $30 million (More)

🇪🇸 Girona are close to signing Manchester United midfielder Donny van de Beek, with a fee of around £16.9 million including add-ons (More)

🇵🇹 Portugal manager Roberto Martinez says that “no individual decisions” have been made on the futures of Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe after their loss to France (More)

Extra Time

Trent Alexander-Arnold tells his mate that someone didn’t “want to take” a penalty.

Barcelona teammates Raphinha and Araujo don’t see eye-to-eye playing against each other.

Even at Wimbledon, Pep Guardiola’s daughter doesn’t get a day off.

Lionel Messi’s penanka penalty miss in Argentina’s penalty shoot-out versus Ecuador.

Referee Kevin Lynch’s story on dealing with Ian Wright. 

Analysis: Did Southgate get lucky or does he deserve credit?

Game Face On

Question: Which Frenchman scored a brace against Germany in the Euros semi-final in 2016?

Scroll below for the answer.

On This Week

FOOTBALL

Tuesday 9 July

• Euros: Spain vs France semi-final (20:00 BST)

• Copa America: Argentina vs Canada semi-final (21:00 ET / 01:00 BST)

Wednesday 10 July

• Euros: The Netherlands vs England semi-final (20:00 BST)

• Copa America: Uruguay vs Colombia (21:00 ET / 01:00 BST)

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer

Anton Griezmann

Hottest Take of the Day

Today’s Hottest Take of the Day was submitted by Jason E from Southampton: Spain have been the best team at the Euros in my opinion but France are like Real Madrid in the Champions League - hard to beat and luck always seems to be on their side.

Submit another Hot Take of the Day here.