Penalty shootouts debunked

GM football fans. Route One here, and we’re covering what you need to know about Euros penalties, Southgate’s 100 games in charge, and much more. First time reading? Sign up here.

All feedback read at [email protected] or submit your Hot Take of the Day here.

Head Start

Euros shootouts: Here’s what to look out for

When it’s penalty shootout time, everyone around the sofa tries to guess whether a player will score or miss.

Ahhh he looks nervous… I’d bet my house that he’ll miss this… 

… then [insert name] scores one of the best penalties you’ve ever seen. Silence ensues. We’ve all been there. 

But what if we told you that some penalties are easier to call than others? Yup, that’s right, all penalties in a Euros shootout aren’t created equal. 

Take the eighth penalty kick… 

(Wait, no, if you find yourself in a penalty shootout, don’t actually take it). Why?

Well, across Euros history, the eighth penalty kick is the only penalty with a conversation rate below 75% - at a 47.6% conversion. And, what’s worse, it’s the only penalty that a player is more like to miss than score.

Instead, the first (79.5%), second (79.5%), third (81.8%) or fifth (80.6%) penalties have much better conversions.

(Side note: sudden death penalties have a higher success rate (76.9%) than the first 10 penalties (75.9%) in Euros shootouts… who knew?)

And what about the myth of bringing on substitutes to take a penalty? 

At the Euros, there have only been four occasions where a player has come on in the final two minutes and taken a penalty… 

… and, on all four occasions, substituted players have missed their spot-kicks in the shootout.

Safe to say… myth debunked. 

Get ready to bite some nails as the 24th penalty shootout at the Euros is probably around the corner… and it might just be your nation in the firing line.

Plus…

Manchester United bring in ex-Chelsea talent spotter to assist with transfer plans (More)

Tottenham announce the signing of Archie Gray from Leeds United, worth £30 to £40 million (More)

Brighton’s new 31-year-old head coach Fabian Hurzeler speaks at his first press conference (Watch)

Burnley are in advanced talks to appoint Scott Parker as their new manager (More)

Euros Stats Zone

RD 16: Romania 0 - 3 Netherlands (Highlights)

→ Netherlands have progressed from a Euro knockout match for the first time since the 2004 quarter-final vs Sweden.

→ Across the last two major international tournaments, the only European player with more goals than the Netherlands’ Cody Gakpo (6 in 9 games) is France’s Kylian Mbappé.

→ Donyell Malen became the first player to score two goals in a game at Euro 2024.

RD 16: Austria 1 - 2 Turkey (Highlights)

→ Turkey’s Merih Demiral opened the scoring after just 57 seconds, the second earliest goal in Euros history and quickest ever in the knockout stages.

→ Turkey now hold the record for the fastest goal in both the Euros and the World Cup knockout rounds on record.

→ Austria’s last-minute header was worth 0.94 (xGOT). In other words, a goalkeeper would only be expected to save the effort 6% of the time.

Find the Euro 2024 brackets here.

Southgate’s 100 games

The first 100 games of Gareth Southgate

England’s game against Switzerland will mark Gareth Southgate’s 100th match as manager.

But how does his time in charge compare to those that came before him?

Data from The Times shows that Southgate’s win rate is keeping pace with the only managers that have been in charge of England for 100 matches - Sir Walter Winterbottom and Sir Alf Ramsey…

And when it comes to games won at a major tournament, on paper, Southgate is head and shoulders above the rest… 

• 13 – Gareth Southgate

• 8 – Alf Ramsey

• 7 – Sven-Goran Eriksson

• 5 – Bobby Robson

At the 2018 World Cup, Southgate became only the third manager to guide England men’s national team to a World Cup semi-final…

… and, at Euro 2020, the first major final since - you guessed it - 1966.

But these stats need important context.

The pre-Southgate era - between 1968 and 2016 - saw defeats to tougher opposition… Yugoslavia, Germany (x4), Argentina (x2), Brazil, Portugal (x2), Italy (and Iceland)…

And most of the defeats were by small margins. Remarkably, six of those 12 losses were on penalties, and five were by one goal.

Southgate, on the other hand, has achieved wins at major tournaments against ‘easier’ opposition…

… the nature of expanded tournaments has meant that it has been a lot easier to rack up wins at a 24-team major tournament compared to an 8-team one.

In fact, in four major tournaments under Southgate, England have failed to beat a team ranked inside the top ten before extra time.

Anyway, if one thing stands out above all, it’s that England managed to break the penalty shootout curse under Southgate… 

… and that counts for something, right?

Right?

Off The Pitch

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❌ The EU has charged Meta with violating its Digital Markets Act (More)

Yesterday’s Poll

Yesterday, we asked you: Following Portugal's narrow victory over Slovenia, do you think Cristiano Ronaldo is holding his nation back?

Here are the results…

🤷 🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ It's more complicated than that... (36.7%)

😬 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 They would be better without him... (41.8%)

😤 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ Don't be ridiculous... (21.5%)

Your punditry takes: 

• 🤷 Gibo voted ‘It’s more complicated than that’: “I do think Ronaldo needs to make way for younger players however he is such a money spinner for the Portuguese FA it's hard for them to drop him.”

• 😬 Gerry B voted ‘They would be better without him’: “Wasted too many free kicks last night. Bruno should have taken a few.”

• 😤 Whara voted ‘Don’t be ridiculous’: “It is not only about the football quality (which might be worse because of Ronaldo's age). He is giving his team a strong mentality, being the glue part of making the team spirit and his teammates aware of their capabilities.”

Around The Football World

💰 UEFA hands out over €1 million of fines after fights and fireworks at Euro 2024 (More)

🇨🇦 Canada international Olivia Smith has officially joined Liverpool, for a record fee of £210,000 (More)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea completed the signing of Leicester City midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall after agreeing a £30 million fee (More)

🇺🇸 Hosts USA were eliminated from the Copa America with a 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday night (More)

🇪🇸 Arsenal Women have signed the World Cup-winning Spain forward Mariona Caldentey from Barcelona on a free transfer (More)

Extra Time

Jose Mourinho’s first interview as Fenerbahçe head coach.

Ed Sheeran performs for England players after their win over Slovakia.

An official refused to shake to shake Pulisic’s hand after the match.

Ruud Van Nistelroy talks about Roy Keane bullying him at Manchester United.

Prime Neymar’s rainbow flick was a sure way to annoy the opposition.

Remembering Robson-Kanu’s iconic Euros goal.

Game Face On

Question: Which player is Arsenal’s most expensive transfer sale of all time?

Hint: At 16 years and 111 days old, he became Southampton's second-youngest ever player.

Scroll below for the answer.

On Today

TENNIS

Wimbledon Gentlemen’s and Ladies Singles Second Round & Doubles First Round (11:00 / 19:00 BST)

CRICKET

Womens one-day international series: England vs New Zealand (12:30 BST) 

*EST -5. PST -8. CET +1. CST +8. JST +9.

Answer

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Arsenal sold him for £35 million to Liverpool in the 17/18 season.

Hottest Take of the Day

Today’s Hottest Take of the Day is JJ from London: As long as clubs subsidise travel and accommodation for fans, then I don’t see a problem with some matches being played aboard.

Submit another Hot Take of the Day here.