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- The Premier League Table Never Lies? Here’s an Example of When It Did
The Premier League Table Never Lies? Here’s an Example of When It Did
Newcastle's 2011/12 season is an example of when the table did lie. We break it down simply.
“The Premier League table never lies” is not true.
Managers and pundits use the saying to explain successful campaigns. But, a team's finishing position doesn't show the full picture.
One example stands out above all: Newcastle finished fifth in the 2011/12 season. Then narrowly avoided relegation the following season.
Despite the difference in finishes, Newcastle’s performance was very similar.
For more context, Alan Pardew’s side finished four points away from securing Champions League football in 2012.
They also superseded the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, and Everton.
Newcastle and the Premier League awarded Pardew:
Premier League Manager of the Season.
League Managers Association of the Year.
An unprecedented 8-year contract.
This begs the question:
Did the fifth-place finish deserve such rewards?
Were the Magpies a transformed team under Pardew?
The fact they finished 16th in the following season suggests they weren't.
Everything was the same, from the managers to the players. Yet their finish was completely different.
Interestingly, their underlying stats say their performance didn’t change.
In other words, the 2011-12 Premier League table lied to us. It lied to us all.
So what explains the disparity?
Let’s start by analysing their expected points over both seasons.
1/ Expected Points
Expected points are the best indicator of a team’s final league position.
The graph above shows the expected points in red. It also shows the actual results Newcastle achieved in black over two seasons.
The data shows that their expected points did not change.
This suggests two things:
(1) Newcastle outperformed their xPs in 2011-12, and
(2) Even with the same level of performance, a team’s final position can vary.
2/ Goal Difference
Goal difference is another reliable statistic to show a team’s strength. It’s relied on by betting companies when assessing a team’s league position.
When Newcastle finished fifth in the league, they had a +5-goal difference. The teams that finished above them had at least a +20-goal difference.
Statistically speaking, this is very unlikely.
To achieve 65 points (19 wins and 8 draws) with a weak goal difference is nothing short of bizarre.
Newcastle’s effective Goal Distribution that season explains their goal difference. This means that, when they scored, they got points. When they lost, they lost big.
In the 11/12 season, Newcastle won eight games by only one goal. In that same season, they had four losses with three or more goals.
Again, here, we see that “the Premier League table never lies” is a myth.
Newcastle was a mid-table team. But, they achieved effective goal distribution. Allowing them to secure more points than comparative teams.
3/ Shot Differential
Shot differential tells us how likely a team is to score versus how likely they are to concede.
It’s defined as the difference between shots on target versus the shots conceded.
Newcastle had a negative total shot differential. They were far from shoulder-to-shoulder with their top-table counterparts.
In away fixtures, Newcastle had only one shot compared to their opponent’s six.
Put another way, they were clinical, and their opponents were wasteful.
4/ Unsustainable Conversion Rates
We’ve established that Newcastle was unusually clinical in the 11/12 season.
We can take this further by highlighting their striker’s incredible, conversation rate.
Papiss Cisse had a conversion rate of 33% that season. This is a freak result.
To put this into context, in the same season, Messi had a conversion rate of 20%. That was the same season Messi scored 73 goals in 60 games and won the Ballon d’Or.
5/ Football Is Both Fun and Random
Can we say that football is often governed by randomness?
To an extent, yes, and certainly more so than other sports such as basketball, rugby or tennis.
Why? Because football is a low-scoring sport.
The average number of goals per football match is circa 2.8.
The more goals in a sport, the less impact randomness has on the result. The opposite is true. The fewer goals in a sport, the greater the impact of randomness on outcomes.
A poor refereeing decision. A beach ball deflecting Darren Bent’s shot. Or a missed Schweinsteiger penalty in the Champion League Final skew results.
That’s why, in football, the lesser team wins more often than in other sports.
“This is football, anything can happen” is a much truer statement than “The Premier League table never lies.”
Randomness is part of the theatre of football, and Newcastle managed to play a lead role for a whole season.
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