Prem's last hurdle

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Prem’s last hurdle

…. here’s what’s on the line this Sunday:

• Manchester City (1st) and Arsenal (2nd) are fighting for the title. 

• Spurs (5th) and Chelsea (6th) are battling for the only guaranteed spot for Europa League qualification. 

• Newcastle (7th) are in pole position to finish seventh over Man United (8th), which will get them into the Europa Conference League (if City win the FA Cup next weekend). 

And Luton (18th) technically are still in a relegation battle with Nottingham Forest (17th).

But their -31 goal difference would mean they would need a 12-goal swing over Forest to overtake them. Make of that what you will.

Phew. So lots on the line. 

But, let’s be honest, all eyes will be on the title race.

It’s the 10th time in Premier League history that the title race will be decided on the season’s last day and… 

… (Arsenal fans look away) …

… on each of those occasions, the team sitting top going into the final day ends up lifting the trophy. 

Opta’s computer also predicts that outcome. Manchester City has an 83.7% chance of winning the league.

If City draw and Arsenal win their game, then they’ll end up level on points… then the league is settled by (in order)... 

• Goal difference - Arsenal have 1+ better GD before Sunday.

• Then by goals scored - City have 4 more goals before Sunday.

• Then head-to-head points - Arsenal has 3+ points over City. 

So… expect twists, turns and everything in-between. 

Clear the schedule. Grab the popcorn. We might have another Ageuroooooooooooo moment.

Matchday 38 Snapshot

Manchester City vs West Ham (Sunday 16:00 BST - Sky Sports)

→ In the reverse fixture, Manchester City came from a goal down to win 3 - 1 at the London Stadium.

→ Erling Haaland has now scored 63 goals in 65 Premier League appearances; the most of any player in his first two seasons in the competition.

→ West Ham have scored in away trips to Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Aston Villa this season.

Arsenal vs Everton (Sunday 16:00 BST - TNT Sports)

→ In the reverse fixture in September, Leandro Trossard scored the winner for Arsenal in a 1 - 0 victory. 

→ Arsenal go into the game ranked second in goals scored per match (2.4 goals) and have kept the most clean sheets in the competition (18). 

→ Everton rank 19 in goals scored per match (1.1 goals) and haven’t won an away game in their last 11 matches. 

Chelsea vs Bournemouth (Sunday 16:00 BST - Sky Sports)

→ A draw or win against Bournemouth would ensure that Chelsea qualify for Europe. Fifth place remains a possibility but would require Spurs to lose against bottom-of-the-league Sheffield United.

→ Chelsea haven’t lost to Bournemouth in their last five meetings, and they’ve taken 13 points from a possible 15 matches in the league.

→ Bournemouth’s form is more erratic, having taken six points in the same number of games (2W, 3L).

Link to this weekend’s fixture list here.

Head Start

😳 Women’s Super League: The WSL will be decided on the final day of the season for the fourth time in a row on Saturday. Manchester City head into their game against Aston Villa second in the table, behind leaders Chelsea on goal difference by two goals. 

📸 Clubs want VAR: The majority of Premier League clubs want to keep VAR after Wolves tabled a proposal to scrap the technology. The proposal is due to be heard at a shareholders’ meeting on June 6, but most top-flight clubs feel scrapping VAR would be counterproductive and damage the standing of the Premier League. 

🔝 Championship Play-off Semi-final: Leeds reach the Championship Play-Off final at Wembley after beating Norwich 4 - 0 in the second leg. You can find the highlights here. In the final, they’ll face the winner of tonight’s second-leg semi-final between Southampton vs West Brom.

🇫🇷 France shock squad: Didier Deschamps has handed N’Golo Kante a shock recall to the France squad for Euro 2024. But the French coach has left out Crystal Palace winger Michael Olise and Chelsea striker Christopher Nkunku.

VAR Poll

Yesterday’s poll: Where does your vote go when it comes to VAR?

The winner is…

**drum roll please**

… Scrap it all together. But only by a thread…

🤷‍♂️ 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ Keep it how it is... improve the VAR referees (18%)

❌ 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 Scrap it all together... I want it gone! (41%)

🤖 🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 Semi-automated VAR is the way to go (40%)

Your punditry takes:

• ❌ Jean C. “I thought the Ref was supposed to go to VAR if he was unsure about a decision and the linesmen also. However, VAR is overruling match officials and making clear errors. If the 3 officials on the pitch are not in charge of the game then what is the point of them?”

• 🤖 James M. “Semi-automated offsides will be a huge positive. They work brilliantly in the UCL. The idea of VAR is good, the problem has been the implementation. It should be used by people who solely act in that role, not just normal match officials.”

• ❌ M.N. “Football is spontaneous it's not about millimetres. If it's kept, it should be about goalline technology not whether someone is a nail offside.”

Off The Pitch

🥊 Unifying world heavyweight title fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk is to take place in Saudi Arabia on Saturday (More)

😳 The Covid inquiry is on track to becoming the most expensive in history, costing at least £300,000 a day over the last year (More)

🎨 Australia’s wealthiest woman demands the National Gallery of Australia remove her portrait (More)

🎬 ‘Happy Gilmore 2’ has been confirmed to feature on Netflix (More)

📵 EU to investigate Facebook and Instagram for being ‘too addictive’ (More)

🌲 Scientists have solved the mystery of the origins of ancient baobab trees, the ‘tree of life’ (More)

Game Face On

Question: Which team recorded the biggest final day win in Premier League history?

Hint: It was their third Premier League title.

Scroll below for the answer.

Fantasy Premier League

FPL Bonus 📊

It has been a long ride.

We’ll keep this week’s short and sweet as we know most have accepted their FPL fate.

But…

… congrats to those who made it to Gameweek 38. You’ve earned yourself a well-deserved break.

You can monitor your live rank at LiveFPL.Net in real time on the final day.

We have our fingers crossed you top your mini-league come the final whistle… 

… and to help you do that we have assembled a mini tool kit:

• FPL Experts: How to finish on a high in GW 38.

• Best AI GW 38 team. 

• Best GW 38 captain.

And if it hasn’t been your season, the current world champion still sits outside the top one million… and he’s a pro.

Reply to this email and let us know how you’ve done this season. No matter how good (or bad).

Extra Time

Wayne Rooney says that Namanja Vidić was immature.

The most valuable squad and players in the world in numbers.

51-year-old Zinedine Zidane is still as skilful as in his prime.

Cristiano Ronaldo tops the Forbes list of ten highest-paid athletes in 2024.

Reece James goes head-to-head with Christopher Nkunku in training. 

Long-read: Why Jürgen Klopp will leave as one of Liverpool’s greatest managers.

Answer: Chelsea, who beat Wigan 8 - 0 in 2010.

“Sandro’s holding his face. You can tell from that it’s a knee injury.”

-Dion Dublin