Gm football fans. Route One here, the football newsletter that always takes their shoes off at the door.

Today’s briefing is a ~4 min read:

1. Gameweek 13 preview… everything you need to know 🤩

2. Extra time: Gareth Bale’s trophyless season 🤔

3. Fantasy Premier League: value for money picks and captaincy 🎯

R1 Goal Forecast Predicts… ☔️

It’s going to rain goals this weekend!

Waada weekend is set to be… exactly what we needed after the international break.

We’ve got you covered with our analysis of the biggest games in today’s briefing.

GAME WEEK PREVIEW 🤩

Man City vs Liverpool

Boy oh boy, this is a biggun’.

This is the fourth time that City and Liverpool face each other while occupying first and second place in the table.

It will take place in the damned early kick-off time… great to start our weekends but not so great for Klopp.

Why? Because the lunchtime slot has caused his side some issues… only winning 18 of the 37 league games.

That’s a 48.6% win rate compared to his usual 64.6% win rate at other times.

Eeesh.

And City’s not the team to face when things are against you.

Let’s not mention The Red’s away record this season, shall we?

Ok, we can’t help it… they’ve dropped points in four of their six away league games this season.

But, Salah is one goal away from 150 in the competition - a place in the all-time top 10 scorers in the league.

Could this be enough motivation for the Egyptian to crush the pundit’s predictions? We certainly wouldn't count him out…

Either way, expect goals, more goals, and even more goals… we can’t wait!

• 💉 Quick hit: Pep Guardiola’s win rate at the early morning slot is 75.8%, slightly higher than his record in other Premier League games (73.9%).

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Tottenham vs Villa

Here’s an interesting match-up.

This is the first game of Villa’s tough fixture run. Fantasy Football Hub AI tool says they have the hardest run of games up till GW17.

They’ll be confident that they won both games versus Spurs last season… and that Ange’s side is, well, depleted.

But, like Liverpool, Villa don’t play as well away from home.

That’s maybe why Opta Analyst favours Spurs, with their ‘supercomputer’ predicting that Spurs have a 48.1% chance of securing all three points.

They put a draw at 26.8%.

• 💉 Quick hit: Spurs have not lost consecutive home games against Villa since August 1995.

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Newcastle vs Chelsea

It’s a shame this game won’t be aired on TV.

Both teams have been nothing short of entertaining this season.

So, what do you get when you bring them together? Well, we’re hoping it means double the entertainment.

Newcastle’s home record has been solid. They’ve won their last four league matches without conceding.

But Chelsea have finally got their shooting boots on.

Nicolas Jackson has scored with four of nine attempts in his last two games. While three of those were easy finishes against Tottenham, it might give him the confidence he needs in front of goal.

He’s second only to Haaland in the league when it comes to big chances (14). So, any bit of confidence in front of goal will prove fruitful for Chelsea.

This is probably the toughest game to call this weekend.

• 💉 Quick hit: Pochettino’s side has only lost one of their last eight games across all competitions. They’ve also scored 20 goals in the same period.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

We all know Jurgen Klopp doesn’t like the 12.30 kick-off slot… and he is letting Sky know by getting their reporter in a headlock. No seriously.

They say your 30s are your best years. Well, they were for Paul Scholes. He was 32 in 2006 and went on to win five Premier League titles and the Champions League before retiring at age 39. Wow.

Cheekiest sending-off in Premier League history? Throwback to when Fabregas lobbed the ball into a crowd of players. Playground style. Chris Brunt got the brunt of the ball.

A great shot gets viewers off their seats… and so do bad ones. In celebration of Marouane Fellaini’s birthday this week, we are sharing a clip of when he knocked a steward off his stool with his goal attempt.

Apparently, Manchester United legend, Nemanja Vidić was not that good. That’s the view of Gabby Agbonlahor as he picks his all-time Premier League XI.

Gareth Bale was a prolific trophy winner, except for when he was at Spurs. Gareth Bale's only trophyless season since leaving Spurs, was the one season he returned. Sorry Spurs fans, we love you really. 🤣

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE 📊

CAPTAINCY 🫡

As you know, we’re experimenting with gambling odds to help decide our captain each gameweek.

Since then, we’ve climbed the FPL ranks, so we can’t see any reason to stop.

Don’t worry, Router, we’ll share our secrets with you.

So, let’s start by analysing the main captaincy options this week: Haaland, Salah and Son.

Here are the betting odds this week:

If you’re not familiar with odds (you’re not alone), here’s a quick summary:

🥇 Haaland is the best option for captaincy… the bookies think his chance of netting three is higher than Salah getting a brace.

🥈Runner up is… Son. Believe it or not, the bookies reckon the City fixture will be tough for Liverpool. So, Spur’s talisman is second on the podium.

🥉Last, but very much least, Mo Salah. Look, we have a suspicion he might pull something out of the bag. But, as we said, it’s aye aye captain with the bookie’s choice.

So… why are the odds heavily in Haaland’s favour? Well, there are four reasons…

1. City’s strong home record. They are first for expected goals conceded at home and fourth for expected goals scored.

2. Liverpool is weaker away from home this season. They sit ninth for expected goals conceded on the road.

3. Pep Guardiola’s early morning record is great. It’s actually slightly higher (75.8%) than his record in other Premier League games (73.9%).

4. Jurgen Klopp doesn’t boast the same results. His record is actually worse (48.6% win rate) at the early kick-off compared to his usual 64.6% win rate at other times.

As you might have guessed, we will be captaining Haaland if he is fit.

We wish you all the best in navigating this very tricky game week. : )

VALUE FOR MONEY PICKS 🤑

R1 has pulled together a quick cheat sheet to help you before the FPL deadline on Saturday morning.

There’s nothing like a good bargain.

So… we’ve compared the player’s Costs to their FD Index to show which players are good value for money.

In case you’re new around here… FD Index = fixture difficulty and player form.

How to interpret each graph:

• Top right quadrants = safe bets

• Top left quadrants = riskier bets that could pay off

• Bottom right quadrant = overpriced asset

• Bottom left quadrant = low price, low expected performance

Attackers Summary

• Recommendations: Haaland, Darwin, Solanke. Take a punt on Nketiah, if you’re feeling lucky.

• Avoid: Watkins and Hojlund.

Midfielder Summary

• Recommendations: Salah, Bowen (if fit), Szoboszlai. Take a punt on Bernardo Silva, if you’re feeling lucky.

• Avoid: Saka and Foden.

Defender Summary

• Recommendations: Virgil van Dijk, Saliba. Take a punt on Everton’s Mykolenko, if you’re feeling lucky.

• Avoid: Trippier and Ake.

Good luck Router! As ever, send us your teams and gameweek results. 🫡

MEME 😆