Rethinking Defensive Transfers - Stats Summary On Making Better Decisions

If you're like us, you've always wondered if you should focus on defensive or attacking stats when choosing a defender in FPL.

We’ve run the numbers and found the answer.

Let's get into it...

Strategy for choosing a defender

We’ve analysed the three seasons before the 2023/24 campaign to decide what stats are best.

We wanted to find the best way to predict a defender's total points over a season. This tells me what stats to focus on when transferring players into our squad.

The results were surprising.

We always thought that attacking stats were better, even for defenders. In theory, it makes sense because they’ll be getting points from goals and assists, as well as clean sheets.

But, we were wrong... here’s why.

Take the 20/21 season...

The right of the graph shows that the correlation between Clean Sheets and Total Points is very strong.

On the flip side, the correlation between Assists and Total Points is far more scattered and less clear.

We can also look at the R-squared, which shows us how much attacking returns (goals and assists) or Clean Sheets explain a player's total points in a season.

It's a number between 0 and 1. The closer to 1, the higher the impact.

The results are clear...

Clean Sheets + Total Points = R2 0.92 - very high!

Assists + Total Points = R2 0.39 - low!

Even when we include Goals + Assists together, the R2 = 0.63.

This is still much lower than Clean Sheets.

What about in other seasons?

Ok, so we know that Clean Sheets was a better way to determine a defender’s points in the 20/21 season.

But, does this trend follow for the remaining seasons? 

The short answer: yes, and even more so than we expected.

Here’s the full breakdown of R-squared per season.

In every season, Clean Sheets is a much higher determiner of a defender's Total Points:

This can be visually represented in the graphs below.

Starting with the 2021/22 season, the correlation between Clean Sheets and a defender’s Total Points is strong.

Whereas, similarly to the season before it, goals and assists tell a more confusing story.

The same trend can be found in the following season.

From all the seasons analysed, it’s also true that the best defensive assets are those that provide clean sheets and attacking returns.

Players like Kieran Trippier and Trent Alexander-Arnold are prime examples. These players were premium assets during these seasons, which often made them pricier than other defenders.

So, if you’re looking to predict a less premium defender’s total points by the end of the season, always opt for their team’s clean sheet stats before looking at the player’s individual attacking returns.

TL/DR

- Defensive stats > attacking stats when picking a defender.

- If you're trying to predict a defender's total points, look for clean sheets first.

- Even with good attacking returns, defensive returns are the foundations of a defender's total points.

- xGC, big chances conceded, and touches in the penalty box are more important to defenders than attacking return potential.