GM football fans. Route One here. Your daily dose of football minus the boring journalism.

Today’s briefing is a ~4 min read:

1. Everything you need to know about tonight’s games 🤩

2. To sack or not to sack… that is the question 🧐

3. Extra time: Sky Sports presenter banned from press conferences 😬

Morning Brief 🗞️

GAME WEEK PREVIEW 🤩

Sheffield United vs Liverpool

Tonight @ 7.30 pm - Amazon Prime Video

By now, we’ve all heard the news that Heckingbottom has been sacked.

So, it’s pretty obvious that things haven’t been going well - and Liverpool aren’t the ideal opposition when you’re looking to bounce back.

This season, Sheffield United have been poor defensively. They’ve conceded five or more goals in three different Premier League games this season.

Liverpool is second in terms of xG away from home this season. The Reds will also rely on Mohamed Salah, who’s the league’s second-highest scorer (10).

In other words, Liverpool scored a lot of goals and Sheffield United conceded a lot of goals.

But, Sheffield United’s only saving grace is that Liverpool is winless in their last four Premier League away games against promoted sides.

Will this make much difference? To be honest, we’re not so sure…

• 💉 Quick hit: Liverpool start games slow away from home, having conceded the first goal in each of their last six Premier League away games.

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Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Tonight @ 8.15 pm - Amazon Prime Video

On paper, Villa fans should be worried.

The hosts haven't won a game in 13 Premier League matches against Man City - and only 2 of them were draws.

But… City are coming into the game after a three-game winless run in the league. Can you believe it?!

And Rodri and Grealish are both absent as they serve a one-match suspension for reaching five yellow cards.

We all know what happened when Rodri was absent earlier this season… and if you don’t… City lost both games that he was out (vs Wolves and Arsenal).

So… if Unai Emery’s side is looking to nick a point or three, now’s the best time to do it.

Ollie Watkins will be the main outlet, having bagged 15 goal involvements (11 goals, four assists) in his last 15 Premier League home games for Villa.

Don’t be fooled, though. City has a lot of depth in their squad and with Haaland roaming on the pitch, they’re always dangerous.

• 💉 Quick hit: in their most recent league fixture in February, all three of City’s goal scorers in their 3-1 win will be absent from tonight’s game (Rodri, Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez).

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Manchester United vs Chelsea

Tonight @ 8.15 pm - Amazon Prime Video

A big game… despite both teams sitting at mid-table.

United will look to get back on track after losing three of their last five Premier League games at Old Trafford, having previously won eight in a row.

They are still without some key players… Lisandro Martinez, Christian Eriksen, Casemiro and Tyrell Malacia.

But United fans, listen to this… Chelsea’s midweek fortune has been pretty poor recently. They’ve only won one of their last 10 league games played on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.

Nevertheless, The Blues will be pleased to hear that Pochettino has a good recent record against United. He’s won four of his last seven Premier League games against them.

We hate to be a downer, but don’t expect a thriller… this fixture has seen more draws than any other Premier League era, with 26 games finishing level.

Booo!

We want action… let’s hope Chelsea’s recent madness sparks some excitement into this fixture.

• 💉 Quick hit: Chelsea have not won Old Trafford in the Premier League since a 1-0 success in May 2013.

TO SACK OR NOT TO SACK 🧐

That is the question… if you’re a Premier League owner.

And after Sheffield United’s 5-0 defeat to fellow promoted side Burnley, their manager Paul Heckingbottom is the first to be sacked this season.

Why? Because Sheffield United are…

• They are rock-bottom of the table

• They have just five points from 14 games

• They have a goal difference of -28

Ok… but is it a good decision to sack a manager when in the relegation zone?

We’re not philosophers… so we’re not going to talk about morality. But, we will go off the stats and luckily Sky Sports gave us a comprehensive list of stats to look at.

Let’s break it down, simply…

So, the overall stat… 33 of 77 clubs survived after axing their manager in the relegation zone - that’s 43%.

But we need context:

1/ Clubs are better off sacking their manager before they hit rock bottom

57% of clubs survive when they're 19th, and only 15% survive when they’re bottom of the league.

Sacking the manager whilst in 18th place is only slightly better with 54.2% of survival.

2/ An earlier sacking is better… statistically speaking

Survival rate % dramatically drops as the season goes on.

No club has ever survived after axing a manager in the bottom three beyond February.

3/ Hmm… should spending be the focus, instead?

Well, as you’d expect, yes.

But, there’s a big BUT…. only if it’s done wisely.

Fulham, for example, splashed more than £100m on transfers to no avail in 2018/19.

In general, spending is a good thing. 22 clubs have recorded a net spend of £30m or more on transfers after winning promotion, and only five were relegated…

Overall, the stats show something unusual… sacking earlier is better than later. This goes against the idea that managers need time to get over rough periods.

That said… newly promoted clubs should focus on wise recruitment to reduce the churn of managers - and all the awkward press that comes with it.

In Sheffield United’s case, they’re on track to avoid being the worst team in Premier League history. They’re expected to get 14 points, compared to Derby’s 11 in 2007/08.

The new manager will need to do something as drastic as Crystal Palace’s turnaround in 2013, who finished on 38 points after sacking Ian Holloway.

No easy feat… to say the least.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Sky Sports reporter banned from Manchester United press conference. No need to worry Sky, one of our R1 reporters will be down there in no time. 🤣

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is enjoying life in Türkiye. He scored a superb goal for Besiktas after picking up the ball in his own half.

Jeff Stelling says the 3rd round of the FA Cup should be seeded. This would guarantee lower league teams a game against the biggest clubs. And we agree… no one wants to watch Arsenal’s B team vs Liverpool’s B team.

Jose Mourinho or David Wagner? A last-minute winner from Norwich sparked wild celebrations from their manager.

What’s crazier, the goal or the celebration? We can honestly say we have never seen anything like it…

MEME 😆

Sunderland is on the search for a new manager…

The hair dryer is sold separately…