Eden Hazard vs Mohamed Salah: Settling The Debate With Stats

Someone on Twitter said: “If you love stats, you think Salah’s better, if you love football, you think Hazard’s better.”

It’s an interesting hypothesis.

We run the numbers to test this theory. Here are the results…

Comparison of goals and assists

This is the most obvious place to start.

The comparison is done by their age (20 - 31). This isn't scientific, but as they’re the same age, it covers most of their career to date.

Within the analysis, we’ve included a rolling average which is useful for finding long-term trends which might be disguised by short-term fluctuations (injuries, bad team performance etc.).

We have not controlled for the club they were playing at or their opponent’s difficulty.

Key takeaways:

• Earlier in their careers (20 – 23) Hazard achieved more goals and assists.

• From the age of 24, Salah dominates and far outstrips Hazard. Only at the age of 27 does Hazard exceed Salah for G+As.

• The rolling average shows a convergence at the age of 27. This is where Salah continues to excel and Hazard decays upon joining Real Madrid.

• Combining both players, Salah has 4 out of the 6 best G+As. And he has a better peak season than Hazard.

• From the point that Salah joined Liverpool, his stats have been consistent.

• Throughout Hazard’s career, his stats have fluctuated from season to season.

Based on these takeaways, it’s fair to say: based on G+As, Salah’s legacy is better than Hazard’s.

But Hazard’s output (pre-Real-Madrid) was great, albeit less consistent than Salah’s.

Of course, goals and assists aren’t the whole picture.

Comparison of progressive offensive qualities

Is it possible to argue that: Hazard played deeper than Salah OR that Hazard played a more pivotal role in build-up play?

Thanks to Fbref, we can look at progression of the ball forward which gives a good understanding of their overall contribution.

There are 3 stats that we’re analysing here:

• Progressive Carries (PrgC) are when the ball moves towards the opponent's goal line by at least 10 yards in the last 6 passes. It can also be any carry into the penalty area.

• Progressive Passes (PrgP) – ditto but for passes.

• Progressive Passes Received (PrgR) – ditto but for passes received.

Due to a lack of data, I'm using the convergence period (between the ages of 26 to 28) for this comparison. Note: Salah’s best sessions (aged 29) isn’t included in the analysis as Hazard’s data is limited. I have taken this into account in the analysis.

Here are the results:

Key takeaways:

• With progressive carries and progressive passes, Hazard trumps Salah. The data suggests Hazard played a more important role in his team’s build-up.

• If we account for Salah’s year, when he was 29, he still doesn’t exceed Hazard’s PrgC or PrgP – and only reaches 125 and 122.

• Salah's PrgR at 29 is similar to aged 26 – so not much difference.

• Salah receives the ball more in progressive areas than Hazard – again suggesting that Salah is more critical to output than creativity than Hazard.

Career achievements

It can’t be denied, both have achieved huge success throughout their careers.

When we look at their individual and club awards, there’s very little to differentiate the two.

The argument in favour of Eden Hazard is that he’s achieved success in three different leagues. But, with additional context - such as only having 54 appearances and four goals for Real Madrid - it’s difficult to argue he was vital to the success achieved in Spain.

This isn’t to suggest that Hazard didn’t contribute to his team’s success on many occasions. It’s hard to forget his performance in the Champions League against Sparta Prague in 2013. He came on as a substitute and scored an individual goal in stoppage time to send Chelsea through to the last 16 on a 2-1 aggregate score.

There were countless other times that Hazard proved clutch, so it came as no surprise that he achieved so many individual achievements.

Salah has achieved similar success and there’s no doubt that he will continue to achieve major trophies and individual achievements.

The difference between the two stems largely from what they’ve done for their national side. There’s a strong argument that Salah has performed better for Egypt than Hazard did for Belgium.

While Salah has been top goal scorer in the Africa Cup of Nations and achieved two African Footballer of the Year awards, this only tells part of the story.

Salah has been pivotal to Egypt’s recent success, including leading his team to the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations final where his side lost to Cameroon 2-1. Soon after, he was vital in helping Egypt qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia - it was the first time his nation had qualified for the tournament since 1990.

In 2021, he guided his team to their second Africa Cup of Nations final, where they lost to Senegal 4-2.

Belgium’s disappointing displays and poor management over the years doesn’t lend Hazard any favours. But, the way Salah has helped his national team is undeniable - the same can’t be said for Hazard.

Verdict

Look, there is some truth in the original statement (‘“If you love stats, you think Salah’s better, if you love football, you think Hazard’s better.”) but it’s far from the full truth.

Both players have racked up phenomenal numbers, and it’s something of a myth that Hazard is only an aesthetic player. At Lille and Chelsea, his numbers were impressive.

Hazard helps teams with creativity given his superior ball carries and progressive passes.

But, in terms of overall career, we’re giving this one to Salah.

His output is better and more consistent, and he’s proving to have much better longevity.

The Egyptian King comes out on top.