Gm football fans. Route One here.

Today’s briefing is a ~4 min read:

• Who would be top of the league based on xG? 📊

• Chaotic to class… Darwin Nunez’s season so far 👏🏼

• Extra time: Galatasaray is upset with Ndombele for ordering burgers 🍔

EFL Cup - Round of 16 results

• West Ham beat Arsenal 3-1 after a dominant display. Ben White’s early own goal set the tone for the rest of the rest.

• Darwin Nunez’s stunning effort helps Liverpool win the tie against Bournemouth.

• Newcastle fans taunt Ten Hag as they knock out Carabao Cup holders Man United. Will this be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? Is Ten Hag out?

🗞️ Morning Brief

PREDICTING THE LEAGUE WITH STATS 📊

Stats do lie.

Football is a low-scoring game. And that makes the game prone to randomness.

Here’s when this has been the case:

• Teams with a higher xG than their opponents have failed to take all three points on 41 occasions this season.

• Arsenal drew to Fulham despite having 2.64 more expected goals than their visitors.

• Everton lost to Luton, despite having 2.01 more xG.

• Chelsea lost to Notts Forest with 1.54 more xG.

This is what makes the beautiful game so special. Anything can happen.

But, what if stats dictated the Premier League standing?

Sky Sports have analysed it - and here’s what the league table would look like right now:

So, Spurs fans, you’d be sitting in five places lower with 8.5 points less.

There wouldn’t be much to brag about in your group chats, eh?

Newcastle would be sitting in the top spot. But that’s what happens when you only get one point from Wolves and West Ham fixtures… 🫣

Other interesting takeaways:

• Chelsea’s xG is high… so they’re dramatically underperforming.

• Believe it or not, Manchester United are actually outperforming their xG.

• Everton leap six places to ninth. The Toffees have clocked a higher xG than their opponents in seven of their 10 games… 

We’ll revisit this at the end of the season to see if the stats finally catch up with reality.

CHAOTIC TO CLASS IN ONE SEASON 👏🏼

Sometimes it takes time for a player to build confidence.

Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez is a case in point.

Think about this:

• Last season, Nunez was averaging 0.48 goals per 90. Now, he is averaging around 0.86. That’s a huge leap.

• His assists have also improved. In a quarter of the playing time, he has already matched the three assists he achieved last season.

• His average touches have gone up from 36.7 to 41.5.

• He makes 0.64 big chances per 90, compared to last season’s 0.58.

But don’t be surprised. This was the same story for Nunez at his previous club Benfica.

In his first season, he scored 14 goals. In the following season, he netted 34.

Not only is he getting on the scoresheet, but he’s playing an important role in build-up play for Liverpool.

Check this out. He’s third in terms of attacking sequence involvements…

Of course, this is a much smaller sample size than the previous year. This will naturally skew results.

But, after scoring last night’s winner in the Carabao Cup, there’s no doubt he has established himself as Klopp’s go-to option.

There’s even less doubt that he’ll keep his spot in the most important team: The Route One FPL squad.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Christmas comes early for former Spurs midfielder Tanguy Ndombele. The midfielder arrived at Galatasaray 6kg overweight and the club found him ordering burgers at a hotel. He has been told he won’t play until he shifts the weight…

Mark Hughes, the former Manchester United and Barcelona striker is volley king. It was Mark’s birthday yesterday. So, we are resharing a clip of him as Manchester City manager scoring a beauty in training. You never lose it.

Cristiano Ronaldo demands a substitution. But not for anyone on Al-Nassr’s team. Instead, he gestured for the referee to be substituted after ruling out an Al-Nassr goal. He also had a heated encounter with former Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson.

Cat-like reflexes… literally. Safe to say, there are a few jobs at risk since this cat burst onto the scene.

Another complaint about kits this season… first it was Newcastle’s Castore kit and now United players are moaning that the Adidas kits are too tight. They are now wearing replica items during matches. We’ve got some advice: keep it simple, lads.

MEME 😂