To Sack or Not To Sack?

That is the question… if you’re a Premier League owner.

And after Sheffield United’s 5-0 defeat to fellow promoted side Burnley, their manager Paul Heckingbottom is the first to be sacked this season.

Why? Because Sheffield United are…

• Rock-bottom of the table

• Have just five points from 14 games

• Have a goal difference of -28

Ok… but is it a good decision to sack a manager when in the relegation zone?

We’re not philosophers… so we’re not going to talk about morality. But, we will go off the stats and luckily Sky Sports gave us a comprehensive list of stats to look at.

Let’s break it down, simply…

So, the overall stat… 33 of 77 clubs survived after axing their manager in the relegation zone - that’s 43%.

But we need context:

1/ Clubs are better off sacking their manager before they hit rock bottom

57% of clubs survive when they're 19th, and only 15% survive when they’re bottom of the league.

Sacking the manager whilst in 18th place is only slightly better with 54.2% of survival.

2/ An earlier sacking is better… statistically speaking

Survival rate % dramatically drops as the season goes on.

No club has ever survived after axing a manager in the bottom three beyond February.

3/ Hmm… should spending be the focus, instead?

Well, as you’d expect, yes.

But, there’s a big BUT…. only if it’s done wisely.

Fulham, for example, splashed more than £100m on transfers to no avail in 2018/19.

In general, spending is a good thing. 22 clubs have recorded a net spend of £30m or more on transfers after winning promotion, and only five were relegated…

Overall, the stats show something unusual… sacking earlier is better than later. This goes against the idea that managers need time to get over rough periods.

That said… newly promoted clubs should focus on wise recruitment to reduce the churn of managers - and all the awkward press that comes with it.

In Sheffield United’s case, they’re on track to avoid being the worst team in Premier League history. They’re expected to get 14 points, compared to Derby’s 11 in 2007/08.

The new manager will need to do something as drastic as Crystal Palace’s turnaround in 2013, who finished on 38 points after sacking Ian Holloway.

No easy feat… to say the least.