🤔 Triple up on Newcastle? 📈

Gm football fans. Route One here.

Let’s get into it.

Today’s newsletter includes:

• 📰 Morning briefing… Oblak to United?, Rice out for City game, Mount back in training, and more

• 📈 FPL… should you triple up on Newcastle?

• ✍🏼 Deep dive… Harvard study Salah’s contact negotiations…

FIXTURES

EFL Cup: third round… 8pm tonight on Sky Sports

🗞️ MORNING BRIEF
Everything you need know

👂🏼Man United are weighing up a move for Jan Oblak… after Andre Onana’s poor start to life at Old Trafford. More on this story from Fichajes.

🤕 Declan Rice in doubt for game against Man City in 2 weeks after picking up an injury in the north London derby. That’s Partey, Martinelli, Trossard, and Timber all injured for the Gunners.

🔵 Bruno Saltor, part of Graham Potter’s coaching staff whilst at Chelsea, is said to have left the club secretly. The club decided against any public announcement. More on this in the Telegraph.

🤔 Liverpool are still interested in signing Newcastle midfielder Bruno Guimaraes despite the Brazilian verbally agreeing a new contract at St James’ Park.

🔴 Mason Mount back in full-time training after 5-week absence, ahead of United’s EFL Cup 3rd round fixture against Crystal Palace.

✍🏼 “Greek Scouser” Kostas Tsimikas commits his future to Liverpool.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE
Should you triple on Newcastle?

The cat is out the bag. Newcastle’s fixture swing is in full force.

The Magpies won 8-0 on Sunday, have held 2 clean sheets in 2 games, and scored 9 goals - it’s clear why managers are being forced to act fast.

2 of the 3 most popular transfers in this week are Sven Botman and Kieran Trippier.

They have the 3rd highest rated expected defensive stats up to GW11.

Doubling or tripling up on their defence could be a high risk, high reward strategy given the run of games and strong underlying stats.

The downside of tripling up on Newscastle defenders is two fold (candidates being Botman, Trippier, Burn or Pope);

1. You’ll have to sell good performers. The likes of Estupinian, Diaz, Cash, Walker, and Andersen are already returning. Bringing in the Newcastle defenders might prove unnecessarily costly and a waste of transfers over the long run…

2. You lock yourself out of punts on Newcastle attackers: Gordon, Isak, Wilson or Almiron.

In our view:

• Bring at least one Newcastle defender into your side. This will be the move for most serious managers - for those that don’t, they risk facing the consequences… 😬

• Two Newcastle defenders is ideal. Strong defensive stats against weak attacks are a perfect breeding ground for points. Eddie Howe keeps defensive rotation to a minimum too!

• A triple up with a punt on a Newcastle attacker is favourable:

  • Gordon is the best bet. It is highly likely he starts on the left after his game changing cameo on Sunday following injury to Harvey Barnes. He’s also cheap at just £5.6m….

  • The rotation risk of Isak and Wilson eliminates them as a choice with Haaland taking up the premium spot with Alvarez, Wissa, Awoniyi, Morris as secure enablers next to him.

Don’t be surprised if this is not the last time you see a breakdown Newcastle options this season.

You have been warned!

DEEP DIVE
Salah + Harvard University… 🤔

The next time you’re negotiating a salary with your boss, consider checking out the Harvard’s study on Salah’s contract negotiations.

Look, I’m not promising you’ll hit the 350k a week that Salah did… but we all have to start somewhere.

On Sunday, Salah took to social media to share that his latest contract talks with Liverpool have become the subject of a study by Harvard Business School.

The point of the study is to reveal how agreements are reached.

• Fun fact: during these negotiations, Saudi club Al-Ittihad offered Liverpool £215m for Salah. That’s 33,361 Dacia Sanderos. or 80 Bugatti Chirons. or 17 McLaren F1s… let that sink in. 🚰

What does it reveal?

For one, it shows just how close Salah was to not agreeing a contract extension with the Reds.

“I am starting to fear that we may not be able to come to an agreement on a new contract, Mohamed - their latest offer is still very far from what we want.”

These were the words from his agent, Ramy Abbas Issa, over the phone in June 2022.

It shows just how important feeling ‘wanted’ by the club is to key players. While Salah’s aim was always to stay at the club, he admits during the negotiations that: “I want to stay at with Liverpool but the club needs to show that they want me to stay as well.”

And… despite being on the receiving end of harsh criticism, the study does show how an effective football agent can find a balance between the player’s wants and the club’s offer.

This is the most of what we know from the study… but we’re hoping that this opens the door for more transparency in the game…

LAUGHS
Quick links… 🤣

• 🎯 Maddison doesn’t hold back after Saka copies his darts celebration… here

• 😂 Watch the moment that Pedro Neto does 14 celebrations for one goal… here 

• 🫣 The moment Gary Neville finds out that Chelsea lose 1-0 to Villa… here

BIG-GAME PLAYER
The puzzle section

After Newcastle’s 8 - 0 thrashing against Sheffield United, we thought it was only right that they get their own feature here. Don’t ya think?

Right, 3 questions and 3 questions only…

1. Against who did Shearer score his first friendly goal for Newcastle United?

2. Which team did Newcastle defeat to win the 1951 FA Cup Final?

3. What was Newcastle first called, when they were founded in 1892?

Monday’s answer:

Gianfranco Zola joined Chelsea in November 1996 in a transfer from which Italian team?

Palma

MEME

Saka and Son in the North London derby…