GM football fans. Route One here, the newsletter that turns the maze of football news into an easy stroll in the park.

A quick word to our readers who are FPL managers… hang in there!

This is the point in the season the champions are made.

Remember each gameweek is worth the same. Don’t let the rush of deadlines mess with your head.

And because we know this time of year is stressful, we have you covered with The Ultimate Guide to Gameweek 16.

Good luck for GW, let us know how you get on!

Today’s briefing is a ~6 min read:

1. Everything you need to know about gameweek 16 📊

2. Jurgen Klopp puts ‘ignorant’ journalist in his place… awkward 😬

3. Fantasy Premier League… Mbeumo replacements, captaincy, transfer tips 🎯

We promise we haven’t made up these results…

GAMEWEEK 16 PREVIEW 📊

Can you believe it… three gameweeks in under 10 days.

Well, prepare yourself for gameweek 16 which is coming up on Saturday this week.

It’s set to be a biggun’ and here’s everything you need to know about the featured games…

FEATURED FIXTURES PREVIEW…

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Listen to this… Aston Villa are one win away from 15 consecutive home league wins for the first time in the club’s 149-year history.

LWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

You see the ‘L’ at the start of that row? Yup… that was Arsenal.

Stories come together so well in football that it sometimes feels a little scripted…

Both teams will be entering this game on a high:

• Emery’s men dominated Manchester City during the mid-week fixture with 22 shots in comparison to City’s two.

• Arsenal showed their title credentials after pulling a 4-3 win out of the bag versus Luton, despite a less-than-convincing win.

Over the past nine games in this fixture, it looks like an even(ish) fixture. Arsenal have won five times and Villa three times.

Arsenal has four wins in their last four meetings. This will give the Gunners confidence that they can retain the top stop for longer.

But, with Arteta absent from the touchline due to suspension, his men will have to find their way against an impressive Villa side.

• 💉 Quick hit: Arsenal has the best expected goals conceded (xGC) in the league - only 6.1.

—

Everton vs Chelsea

Chelsea still sits 10th in the Premier League table with just 19 points from their opening 15 matches.

They now face Everton, who are off the back of a sensational 3-0 win versus Newcastle, taking them out of the relegation zone.

This fixture has proved to be a mixed bag over the years.

Over the past eight fixtures, home and away, both sides have won three and drawn twice.

While Everton have picked up some form, they still sit fourth for goals scored (8) at home in the league.

This means that, despite their 3-0 win on Thursday, they’re significantly underperforming on their expected goals at home (14.1), which would put them ninth in the league - even above City!

In seven away games this season, Chelsea has won three games.

Despite this, they’re third in the league for xG away from home - only behind City and Liverpool.

• 💉 Quick hit: In Everton’s 3-0 win versus Newcastle, they had just 39% possession and 21 shots - resulting in a 3.23 xG.

Tottenham vs Newcastle

Here’s an interesting one.

Both teams will have a chip on their shoulders after Thursday’s results.

Those results weren’t meant to happen… according to the stats.

But… sometimes stats can’t explain it.

One thing has been consistent throughout: Spurs can’t keep a lead. They’ve dropped 16 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season.

They also haven't won in the Premier League since October.

That said, Newcastle have been less impressive away from home this season. They’ve lost four and drawn two… not great.

It’ll be a close game… tough to call… oh heck, after Thursday’s results, we don’t know what to think…

• 💉 Quick hit: this fixture has followed a pattern over the past three years… DDWWLL

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

For sale… anyone interested? Paris Saint-Germain has agreed to sell up to 12.5% of shares in the club to Arctos Partners. The deal values PSG at 4.25 Billion euros, which is a record for a football club.

Klopp doesn't like comedians… especially when they remind him of the early kick-off on the weekends. Awkward, justified, or too sensitive?

Aston Villa are one win away from 15 consecutive home league wins for the first time in the club’s 149-year history. The last time they lost at home was against Arsenal… and guess who they face at the weekend? Yup, Arsenal.

Pele’s former club Santos have been relegated for the first time in their 111-year history. A 2-1 home defeat by Fortaleza in their final league match of the season meant they dropped out of Seria A, Brazil’s top flight.

Gary Neville blasts Matic for committing the ‘biggest betrayal in the dressing room’. This follows the Serbian’s interview that outlined how Man United racked up £75,000 in fines for lateness.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE

CAPTAINCY 🫡

As we keep saying, we’ve been using betting odds to help decide our captaincy picks.

Here’s a snapshot of the captaincy odds for gameweek 16:

The odds say Haaland is more likely to score against Luton than any other player in this gameweek… and that is by some distance too.

P.S. We have not shortlisted any Arsenal assets because they face Aston Villa…

But, let’s take a closer look at the best captaincy options we have identified.

Erling Haaland vs Luton (A)

This is a David vs Goliath match-up and the odds reflect that.

The treble winners Manchester City and one of the best strikers in the world travel to the smallest club in the Premier League.

Haaland has the highest xG this season, double that of the player with the second-highest xG this year.

And he is facing a Luton team which sits in the bottom five in the league for xGC at home and Expected Clean Sheets (xCS) at home.

The stats say this is going to be a guaranteed big haul for the Norwegian.

Plus Stones and Rodri are back giving City an almost full-strength squad.

Given all of that, we think Haaland could return big against Luton.

Mohamed Salah vs Crystal Palace (A)

Salah faces a defensively strong Crystal Palace side. They sit in the top 10 for xGC.

However, Palace are weaker defensively at home than they are away. This will play into the hands of Salah who has the highest xG and highest xGI of any midfielder this season.

Liverpool are in form too. They have not lost in their last eight Premier League games and have been creating chances for fun, topping the league table for xG over that period.

Salah has got 16 returns in 15 games this season and we expect that streak to continue…

Son Heung-min vs Newcastle (H)

Son is still showing signs of being captain-worthy after a goal and assist against Manchester City.

But his form has dropped since Spurs suffered injuries and suspensions in gameweek 11. With only two returns since gameweek 11*.

And he faces a side who like to defend. They have the second-strongest defence in the league in terms of xGC.

All in all, we like Son, but not as a captain this week.

*This piece was written before Son played against West Ham in gameweek 15.

Alexander Isak vs Tottenham (A)

Isak has the second-highest xG this season per appearance after Erling Haaland.

So you might be thinking surely he is a contender as captain, right?

Well… no.

Newcastle don’t get as many goals away from home as they do at St James Park. As shown by them sitting in the bottom ten for xG away from home.

Plus Spurs have Cristian Romero returning to the starting 11 this weekend, making the trip away to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all the more difficult.

So we like Isak as a sample upfront but not as captain in this match.

TL/DR

• Haaland is the one this week. He has the stats on his side and will be looking to make up for lost time in his search for Premier League goal-scoring records.

• Salah is a good option too but he faces a stronger defensive team than Haaland does.

• Son is a shining light in a struggling Spurs team. But Newcastle’s defence is top-notch.

• Isak is a great option to have in your team but not as a captain this week.

BRYAN MBEUMO REPLACEMENTS 🤔

Ok, so you know by now our worst fears have come true.

Mbeumo is out.

Out for weeks!

The FPL super asset which we all expected to haul against Sheffield United is gone, leaving big boots to fill - literally.

So who are our options to replace Brentford’s main man?

We have narrowed it down to three picks who are at different price ranges and are both good assets and a little bit different.

Hwang Hee-chan vs Nottingham Forest (H)

Ten attacking returns in 16 games tell you everything you need to know about Hee-chan.

We picked him as our differential option last week and he delivered against Burnely yet again.

Hee-chan looks great on the eye and he has the underlying statistics to make his budget price of £5.6m look ridiculously good.

He faces a Nottingham Forest side who are poor away from home defensively. They sit 16th in the league for Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) away from home. Followed by West Ham away who also sit in the bottom half of the table for xGC.

His only downside is that he is currently on four yellow cards and will be suspended if he picks up a fifth before gameweek 20.

But given his price and stats, the possible suspension is a risk we think is worth taking.

Bruno Fernandes vs Bournemouth (H)

I know what you’re thinking… not another hopeful Manchester United midfield punt.

We have all been burnt by Bruno and Rashford at some point this season but hear us out…

Bruno is fourth for Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) for midfielders this year.

Only beaten by Salah who is expensive, Mbeumo who is injured and Saka who is in over 50% of managers’ teams already.

For £8.3m and a decent set of fixtures coming up including Bournemouth who are bottom three for xGC, this could be a wise punt.

Remember, it wasn’t so long ago that Bruno was a must-have FPL asset.

The stats and eye test say the same thing… United’s finishing has been poor this season. Bruno is creating chances, but no one is finishing them.

But with Erik ten Hag mixing it up in attack and dropping Rashford who has been the worst in the league for chance conversion, it might be Bruno’s time to shine…

Cole Palmer vs Everton (A)

The Chelsea right winger has been impressive so far this season.

Even more impressive is his £5.3m price tag. Making him an easy go-to for Mbuemo owners.

There are a few things you should know about Palmer before you look elsewhere for a Mbeumo replacement:

• On penalties.

• He has double the Expected Goals (xG) Raheem Sterling does, whilst playing two fewer games in the Premier League this season.

• He sits in the top five for xG in the Premier League this year.

Plus his upcoming fixtures are crazy…

Fixture runs don’t get better than that.

To top all that off he looks like he is not going to be subject to any rotation for the foreseeable after being already rested against Brighton.

MEME 😆