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- FPL WILDCARD GAMEWEEK 20 (Who to Buy and Avoid?) | FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE 2023/24 TIPS
FPL WILDCARD GAMEWEEK 20 (Who to Buy and Avoid?) | FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE 2023/24 TIPS
Welcome fellow managers. It’s Gameweek 20 time.
It’s the last time you’ll be able to use your first wildcard, so today’s blog will focus on who you should consider from Gameweek 20 and beyond.
Here’s what to expect:
Let’s get into it…
Wildcard notes
If you’re a Fantasy Premier League veteran, feel free to skip this section as we outline what a Wildcard is and when to use it.
Or stick with us and use this section as a refresher…
What is a Wildcard?
A Wildcard is an FPL ‘chip’ which allows you to make unlimited changes to your team without incurring any point ‘hits’ (four-point penalties).
Put simply, a Wildcard allows you to make unlimited changes to your team for free.
How many Wildcards can you play per season and when can we use them?
You have two Wildcards per season.
The first Wildcard is available from Gameweek 2 up to and including Gameweek 20.
If you do not use your first Wildcard by Gameweek 20, you will lose that Wildcard.
The second Wildcard is available from Gameweek 21 and is available until the final Gameweek of the season.
When should you play your Wildcard?
Wildcards are the most effective chips in the game and should be treated as such.
The 2022/23 season champion, Ali Jahangirov, wrote a book on how to win FPL.
In one section, he explains how to use a Wildcard. Here are the key takeaways:
Use your Wildcards as late as possible.
Only use your Wildcard when you absolutely need to. So, if you only need three or four transfers to fix your team, you probably do not need a Wildcard.
If possible, try to use your Wildcard on a double gameweek so that you maximise the players that are playing two games in one week.
Try to use the Bench Boost chip in conjunction with your Wildcard. Remember: No two chips can be used in the same gameweek, this means your Wildcard can be used a week before your Bench Boost to strengthen your bench.
When are the double Gameweeks this season?
At the moment it is not clear when the double Gameweeks of this season will be. At the time of writing, the Premier League have not yet confirmed, for example, the missed fixture between Manchester City and Brentford.
Our estimates suggest that Gameweek 37, 34 and 25 could all be double Gameweeks.
African Cup of Nations (AFCON) and The Asia Cup
There are two tournaments to consider: the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) and The Asia Cup.
Both tournaments will result in some players not being available between Gameweek 21 to 24.
Players who are eliminated before the Final and Semi-Final of either tournament will be available before Gameweek 24.
The popular FPL players who will be taking part in the tournaments are:
AFCON
Mohamed Salah – Liverpool
Bryan Mbeumo – Brentford
Andre Onana – Manchester United
Yoane Wissa – Brentford
Nicolas Jackson – Chelsea
Issa Kabore – Luton
Mohammed Kudus – West Ham
Tariq Lamptey – Brighton
Simon Adingra – Brighton
Rayan Ait-Nouri – Wolves
Nayef Aguerd – West Ham
Said Benrahma – West Ham
Antoine Semenyo – Bournemouth
Alex Iwobi – Fulham
Jordan Ayew – Crystal Palace
Asia Cup
Son Heung-min – Tottenham
Kaoru Mitoma – Brighton
Hwang Hee-chan – Wolves
With so many key players away with their national team, it’s wise to use your Wildcard to navigate around unavailable assets.
So, who should you look to bring into your squad and which assets should you avoid?
We’ve got you covered…
Three players to target 🧐
Let’s start with Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m).
He has 11 goals and one assist so far this season, yet only 23.8% of managers are backing him.
With Mohamed Salah (AFCON), Heung-min Son (Asia Cup) and Bryan Mbeumo (injured) all out from Gameweek 21, Bowen is the best MID option.
Of the players available, he has the highest xG (7.75) in the league and the highest total points for a midfielder this season.
His partner, Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m) will be out of action from GW21 due to AFCON, which means all of West Ham’s attacking output will go through Bowen.
Bowen is also an out-of-positon (OOP) player. This means that his points are marked as a midfielder but his manager, David Moyes, plays him as a striker.
Bowen has proven he’s fixture-proof this season with goals against Liverpool, Aston Villa, Spurs and Manchester United.
Regardless, the Hammers have a good run of games with Brighton and Sheffield United in their upcoming fixtures.
They face Brighton next who have failed to get a clean sheet this season. Plus, in the reverse fixture, Bowen racked up 12 points.
Then there’s Richarlison (£6.8m).
Despite his slow start to life at Spurs, his move into the centre-forward role has proved game-changing.
He’s now scored four goals in his last three.
The Brazilian is an OOP player, and because he’s marked as a MID, he has benefited from Spurs’ last three consecutive clean sheets.
With Son out of action for at least four gameweeks, Richarlison will be a good short- to medium-term pick.
He’ll likely be on penalties, secure a good amount of bonus points and his minutes are more secure.
Lastly, there’s Dominic Solanke (£7m).
That’s now five goals in his last three, taking his season total to 12 goals and 1 assist.
On paper, Bournemouth has a few tricky games coming up with Spurs (A), Liverpool (H) and West Ham (A).
But, when we look at the underlying stats, he still doesn’t look like a bad option.
Spurs have the second-worst expected goals conceded (xGC) in the league at home, as well as the worst expected clean sheet (xCS).
Sounds like return potential for Bournemouth’s main man.
Then there’s Liverpool (H) which will no doubt be a tough fixture. But, the Reds will be missing out on Mohamed Salah due to the Africa Cup of Nations. This, plus their defensive injuries of late, could make Liverpool a slightly weaker side.
Three players to avoid ❌
With a total of two clean sheets this season, Alphonse Areola (£4.2m) has not been the value-for-money goalkeeper most FPL managers hoped he would be.
He sits 11th for total points behind goalkeepers such as Chelsea’s Sanchez, Palace’s Johnstone and Newcastle’s Pope who have not played for almost a month with injury.
Areola has also lost his first place in the West Ham team for three matches to Lukasz Fabianski. He regained his first team place in Gameweek 19 but whether he remains the Hammer’s first choice will remain in doubt.
West Ham sits in the bottom six for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season too, so it is not only the keeper’s fault they have been so bad at securing clean sheets this season.
With Martin Dubravka (£4.2m) getting a run in the Newcastle team and Jordan Pickford (£4.4m) looking more solid, this may be a good time to move away from the West Ham defence.
Everybody’s favourite party boy Jack Grealish (£7.2m) is the next player to avoid on the list.
After only starting six games in the Premier League this season, he has been the main victim of Pep Guardiola’s rotations.
Grealish has been left out of the team for Jeremy Doku (£6.5m) for most of this season who is currently injured. But the Belgium winger is expected to return in a couple of weeks and therefore reduce Jack’s minutes on the pitch again.
Even when he does play, he is 27th in the league for expected goal involvement per appearance, behind his teammates Bernardo Silva (£6.4m) and Phil Foden (£7.6).
Despite Manchester City’s favourable fixture run, it’s not clear how much Grealish will feature and whether he can return consistently.
Last on the avoid list is Kai Havertz (£7.1m), despite being part of a side with a favourable fixture run.
While the fixtures may be tempting, Havertz's underlying stats are not…
The German midfielder sits outside the top 30 for expected goal involvements (xGI) this season. Plus, Arsenal sits tenth for non-penalty expected goals this season (NPxG)...
His lack of expected returns so far plus Arsenal’s lack of creativity this season is a recipe for a low-scoring asset.
In Harvertz's defence, he does have five attacking returns this season but at his price of £7.1m, there are cheaper FPL assets available with higher expected and real returns.
3 Differentials Wildcard Options
Don’t sleep on Pascal Gross (£6.4m).
The Brighton midfielder is selected by just 3.5% of managers, yet he’s already provided three goals and six assists this season.
He’s also second-highest in terms of key passes (47) this season amongst midfielders.
As he’s involved in so much of Brighton’s offensive output, Gross is a bonus points magnet. Over the past four gameweeks, he has the highest bonus points (6) of any midfielder, and third - behind Salah and Son - across the whole season.
While Brighton’s defence has been questionable this season, they are seventh in the league for goals scored (34).
Don’t forget… Gross is also on set pieces for Brighton.
Next up is Diogo Jota (£7.7m) who has returned from injury.
With a question mark around the number of minutes he’ll play, he’s selected by just 1% of FPL managers.
Yet, despite only playing six minutes against Burnley in GW19, he scored a goal.
He’s also managed to score 5 in total and assist twice in just 13 league appearances - 5 of which he was subbed on.
Liverpool is second for xG (38.05) this season and they face Newcastle, Bournemouth and Chelsea next.
Within the last four gameweeks, Newcastle and Chelsea have conceded the first and third most goals away from home.
With Salah out of action for at least four gameweeks, it might be Jota’s time to shine.
The last differential is Alejandro Garnacho (£4.7m).
At the time of writing this, the Argentine is only selected by 3.4% of managers. This will likely go up by Gameweek 20 after his brace against Aston Villa piqued the interest of some managers.
So far this season he has scored three goals and assisted once.
He’s a lively player who’s involved in virtually all of Manchester United’s offensive phases of play.
But, Manchester United are eleventh for xG this season and is joint-fourth with Luton for total goals conceded (21).
United have a decent fixture run over the next six gamweeks, but Garnacho should only be a target in your wildcard if you’re chasing points.