GM football fans. Route One here, the only football newsletter that doesn’t panic-buy in the January transfer window.

As promised, we have something in store for you.

With many of you referring family, friends and colleagues to Route One, we thought it was about time we gave back.

Introducing the R1 referral programme… found at the bottom of each R1 email.

The basics: each time you use the link at the bottom of our email to refer someone to R1, you’re closer to winning prizes.

From a coffee mug and a phone wallet to a jumper and dinner with the R1 team.

Spam the group chats, annoy your colleagues on Slack and even snatch your mum’s phone (gently) if needed.

It’s our little thank you.

Anyway, let’s dive in.

Today’s briefing is a ~4 min read:

1. Liverpool smash the xG record… but was is it? 🤔

2. Jan-u-remember these transfers? 😲

3. Extra time: guess who Rory Keane is talking about 😂

Morning Brief 🗞️

The FA Cup is on in the Premier League’s absence, keep up to date with the results and fixtures here.

LIVERPOOL SMASHES XG RECORD 🤯

Liverpool broke the expected goals (xG) record with 7.27 in their 4-2 win against Newcastle on New Year’s Day.

How did Liverpool break the xG record in a single game?

Oh, sorry, two steps ahead… xG is one of those things that gets thrown about a lot. But what even is it?

It’s broken up into 4 main parts… distance to goal, angle to goal, body part with which the shot was taken, and type of assist (or previous action).

If we were to show you visually, it’d look a little like this…

Now, if you’re anything like us, your reaction to seeing the image above was probably something along the lines of…

… but don’t you worry. This is Route One. We have you covered.

So here’s xG for Dummies:

Using historical data, the xG model attributes a value between 0 and 1 to each shot taken by a player.

0 = no chance in h*ll that’s going in (think Darwin Nunez).

1 = that’s a certain goal (think Harry Kane).

It’s a complicated model, but the four main areas the model focuses on are:

1/ Distance to goal… look, it doesn’t take a genius to guess this one. A shot from six yards has a greater chance of reaching the back of the net than a shot from 30 yards out.

All four of Liverpool’s goals came from inside the box, and they had 26 shots in the box compared to Newcastle’s five.

2/ Angle to goal… shooting from central positions is far better than from an angle.

Liverpool had 30 shots from between the width of the six-yard box (incl. six outside the box)

3/ Body part… historically speaking, foot shots are more likely to result in a goal than headed shots, even from the same distance.

Only three of the Red’s 34 shots were headers. The rest were all foot shots.

4/ Type of assist… xG considers how the player receives the ball.

Was it a cross? Which are much harder to convert than ground passes. Was it a through-ball? or was the player dribbling before the shot?

The xG model is constantly changing over time and it’s far from perfect, but it’s still pretty cool to see where data is going in football and where it’s headed in the future.

JAN-U-REMEMBER THESE TRANSFERS? 🤔

The January transfer window is open - and it’s nothing short of chaotic.

Managers become desperate mid-way through the season and scramble for players.

But, now and then, January transfers have proven to be game-changing. Here’s when…

1/ Virgil van Dijk - £75m - Southampton to Liverpool

Yup, that’s right. One of the most important signings in Premier League history.

Before VVD joined in 2018, Liverpool’s defence was average at best. Jurgen Klopp’s side conceded, on average, 1.24 goals per game.

From January 2018, with the Dutch giant at the helm, the Reds conceded just 0.53 goals on average per game.

2/ Luis Suarez - £22.8m - Ajax to Liverpool

Hmmm… we’re starting to think that Liverpool has a knack for this.

Suarez’s arrival in January 2011 was a turning point for Liverpool fans.

His 2013/14 campaign will go down as one of the greatest Premier League seasons of all time.

Don’t believe us…?

Well, in 33 appearances, he scored 31 goals (with 0 penalties, may we add) and racked up 12 assists.

3/ Nemanja Vidic - £7.5m - Spartak Moscow to Man United

Vidic joined United in the January 2006 transfer window.

He became part of the competition’s best-ever defensive pairing with Rio Ferdinand.

United fans fell in love with the Serbian who, as Robin van Persie said, “put his head where other players are scared to put their feet.”

Hopefully, that should satisfy your January transfer taste buds.

But, if it doesn’t, here’s some more for you to flex your knowledge today…

• Another Nemanja (can you guess who?)… Matic. A humble £20.75m from Benfica to Chelsea, or;

• We can take it back to the 90s with Andy Cole who transferred from Newcastle to Manchester United for £6.25m or;

• West Ham’s loan of Jesse Lingard… it was only for a few months but, heck, what a few months it was… or;

• Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for £56m from Borussia Dortmund to Arsenal. We’ll swiftly move on, Arsenal fans.

• Ok, one more… the weird and wonderful Patrice Evra from Monaco to Manchester United for just £5.5m in 2006.

Moral of the story: have faith in January transfers… they can pay off BIG time.

Speaking of… we’ll keep you in the loop on all things January transfers.

EXTRA-TIME ⏱️

Jose Mourinho reveals he has a Netflix show coming out next Thursday. Love him or hate him… either way, this will be box-office as the Portuguese manager promises to reveal because, in his words, “Netflix… paid me well.”

Peter Drury is known for his dramatic match-day introductions and we think we’ve found one of his best. Argentina vs Netherlands QF 2022 World Cup… enjoy.

We cannot believe this goal is from Sunday League. It’s safe to say, grassroots football is in good hands.

Thiago Silva admits he never liked English football. Luckily for Chelsea fans, he made the move to Stamford Bridge once the league started to play more “beautiful football”.

Guess who Roy Keane is talking about when he said: “He’s very very likeable but not sure he has much knowledge on football”. 🤣

MEME 😆

R1 REFERRAL PROGRAM 🤩